18/5/2017. UNMANNED VEHICLES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

on Πέμπτη, 18 Μαΐου 2017. Posted in Ομιλίες

Παρουσιάζει ο Βασίλειος Μαρτζούκος, Αντιναύαρχος ε.α. ΠΝ, Επίτιμος Διοικητής Σ.Ν.Δ., Πρόεδρος ΔΣ ΕΛΙΣΜΕ

What if someone was told just a few years ago that an aircraft or helicopter pilot, will one day control a small fleet of nearby drones from the cockpit while in flight, for missions varying from ISR to weapons delivery in dangerous areas.That almost independent, unmanned systems will gather, organize and integrate a vast array of different information and sensor data, before providing it to human commanders.

How this man would react to a story about, having a“ghost fleet” with multiple surface, air and undersea drones operating for a long time, in a synchronized fashion and conduct a wide-range of combat missions without placing humans at risk. The over-the-horizon UUVs and USVs would deploy their own smaller drone counterparts to transport sensors or weapons the last dozens of miles to a target. When it comes to offensive surface operations, unmanned boats could form a swarm of small attack craft designed to overwhelm and destroy enemy ships with gunfire, explosives or even small missiles.
The physical reaction to these information, would be that is all a scientific fiction story. The reality is that forthe formentioned capabilities, other have already been implemented and other are part of the next few years planning.    

CAPABILITIES OF UV’S (UAV, USV, UUV, UGV)
Today UV’s are directly connected with some national power indicators like economy and economic growth, technology, research and development and at the same time they are already deeply involved in civil and military activities. For example some of the civil missions undertaken by UV, are the following:
1.    Research
2.    Civillawenforcement
3.    Journalism
4.    ReportonTrafficpatterns
5.    Patrol of borders, customs, pipelines and energy installations.
6.    Search and rescue missions,
7.    Survey of wildlife or oil spills
8.    Industrial inspections
9.    Realestate/Aerialphotography
10.    Agriculture crop surveying and analysis
11.    Insurance risk assessment, damage determination
12.    Fire departments
13.    RegulateFisheries
14.    Disasterrelief
15.    HydrographyandOceanography
16.    Environmental, Climate and Weather scientific and ecological activities
17.    Recreationalactivities
18.    Deliveryservices

If those missions consist a critical evolution in the civil sector, perhaps we are facing a revolution in the military domain.
UV’s can be relatively cheap and their operations are not limited by human performance or needs. They expand Commander’s tactical choices while they can perform in denied areas without exposing a crew to those risks. UAVs can offer double or triple the range and endurance of manned aircraft.

Let’s mention some of the UV’S (air, surface, underwater, ground) military missions which are already undertaken or are imminent:
1.Provide ground and sea surveillance and targeting
2.Provide ISR at bordersand other extensive critical areas like energy installations at sea.
3.Military deception, information operations, electronic warfare, and cyberwarfare
4.Cross-domain integration,and communication relay.
5.Nearshore fire support and looking over the hill
6.Support of Ship-to-Objective Maneuver
7.Harbor and coastal protection
8.Naval force protection
9.Deep strike
10.Suppression of enemy air defenses
11.Combat search and resque operations
12.Countering mines in the sea and onland
13.Early warning of coming missiles and small boats
14.Countering diesel submarines, surface craft and antiship missiles
15.Transporting and delivering combat supplies
16.Refuelling platforms
17.Battled amage assessment
18.Urban warfare
19.Countering piracy and interdiction ops
20.Assymetric threats and terrorism
21.Detecting chemical, biological, radiological attack

Are there any weaknesses? Yes there are. For the moment UV’s have relatively low maneuverability and low speed. They are vulnerable to attack from air defense systems and to cyber and communications link attack. Vast quantity of data collected requires sophisticated data analysis to enable the data be analyzed and distributed.

Are there challenges for UV’s? Yes there are. Provision is needed for legislation concerning safety, privacy, civil rights and liberties, as well as air traffic regulations.A lot of technical challenges have to be faced like interoperability and standardization, energy storage, navigation, sensing, and control, satellite integrated telemetry, data access, training, flexibility for man – machine interface, autonomy and automation capabilities, hypersonic flight,swarm UV’s, cyber defense, detect, intercept, and neutralize offensive drones e.tc..

According to the technology trends, UV’s, in near future are going to have longer endurance batteries, better fuel efficiencies, better stealth technologies and better sense and avoid systems. Future UV’s are going to be multi-mission oriented, cheaper, smaller, lighter, more efficient, with capable sensors and more on board computing power. Their survivability will be greatly improved(stealthy, stand-off, longer-range weapons, longer-range communications e.tc.) and they are going to have access to a tactical network system capable of satisfying Service, Joint, Interagency, and Coalition tactical information exchanges.

Lets now refer to some facts:
In 2014 $13 million worth of UAVs were sold on Ebay alone. Some 30,000 unmanned watercraft are expected to be built over the next decade at a cost of over US$15 billion. Over 600,000 UAS have been already deployed for commercial use. In addition, 1.9 million UAS are expected to be in recreational use. The number of UAS is set to triple by 2020. According to the US Department of Defense China alone is looking to produce 42,000 unmanned air and maritime systems between 2014 and 2023.

The European Defense Agency is sponsoring pan-European research and development for both military and civilian drones. The European Space Agency is funding and undertaking research into the satellites and communications infrastructure used to fly drones. FRONTEX is keen to deploy surveillance drones along the EU’s borders for migrants and refugees. Within 20 years, the European drone sector is expected to directly employ more than 100,000 people and will have an economic impact exceeding EUR 10 billion per year, mainly in services.

Since the technology is “interoperable” – meaning civil and military drones will share much of the infrastructure that they need to fly – support for companies developing civilian drones inevitably benefits the manufacturers of the military drones.

If in any country’s armed forces there is not a dynamic transformation procedure,exploiting innovation and new technologies, then there is a great probability that these armed forces will fight their future war with the conditions of the last and that is a formula for failure. All the above capabilities and missions of UV’s, seems that create a new era in strategic, operational and tactical level. That leads to an immediate obligation, for our own armed forces to reevaluate the potential adversaries capabilities and possible actions, to exploit to the maximum possible level these new technologies and accordingly to review the armed forces Force Structure, Command Structure, operational and tactical planning, the acquisition programs and the training procedures. UV’s technology creates also new opportunities for domestic defense industry. Of course to grasp any opportunities requires a strategic vision and quick and coordinated decisions, because opportunities do not wait forever.

An indication of HEL.I.S.S’s interest,is its participation in this conference with four lecturers and is always available to contribute to any possible initiative to this direction.

I wish that this meeting will be beneficial for every service, company or physical person engaged to the subject of UV’s.

17 – May - 2017
Vice Admiral (rtrd) V. Martzoukos HN
Honorable Commanding Officer of the Hellenic Naval Academy
President of Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies


































UNMANNED VEHICLES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS
What if someone was told just a few years ago that an aircraft or helicopter pilot, will one day control a small fleet of nearby drones from the cockpit while in flight, for missions varying from ISR to weapons delivery in dangerous areas.That almost independent, unmanned systems will gather, organize and integrate a vast array of different information and sensor data, before providing it to human commanders.
How this man would react to a story about, having a“ghost fleet” with multiple surface, air and undersea drones operating for a long time, in a synchronized fashion and conduct a wide-range of combat missions without placing humans at risk. The over-the-horizon UUVs and USVs would deploy their own smaller drone counterparts to transport sensors or weapons the last dozens of miles to a target. When it comes to offensive surface operations, unmanned boats could form a swarm of small attack craft designed to overwhelm and destroy enemy ships with gunfire, explosives or even small missiles.
The physical reaction to these information, would be that is all a scientific fiction story. The reality is that forthe formentioned capabilities, other have already been implemented and other are part of the next few years planning.    
CAPABILITIESOF UV’S (UAV, USV, UUV, UGV)
Today UV’s are directly connected with some national power indicators like economy and economic growth, technology, research and development and at the same time they are already deeply involved in civil and military activities. For example some of the civil missions undertaken by UV, are the following:
1.    Research
2.    Civillawenforcement
3.    Journalism
4.    ReportonTrafficpatterns
5.    Patrol of borders, customs, pipelines and energy installations.
6.    Search and rescue missions,
7.    Survey of wildlife or oil spills
8.    Industrial inspections
9.    Realestate/Aerialphotography
10.    Agriculture crop surveying and analysis
11.    Insurance risk assessment, damage determination
12.    Fire departments
13.    RegulateFisheries
14.    Disasterrelief
15.    HydrographyandOceanography
16.    Environmental, Climate and Weather scientific and ecological activities
17.    Recreationalactivities
18.    Deliveryservices
If those missions consist a critical evolution in the civil sector, perhaps we are facing a revolution in the military domain.
UV’s can be relatively cheap and their operations are not limited by human performance or needs. They expand Commander’s tactical choices while they can perform in denied areas without exposing a crew to those risks. UAVs can offer double or triple the range and endurance of manned aircraft.
Let’s mention some of the UV’S (air, surface, underwater, ground) military missions which are already undertaken or are imminent:
1.    Provide ground and sea surveillance and targeting
2.    Provide ISR at bordersand other extensive critical areas like energy installations at sea.
3.    Military deception, information operations, electronic warfare, and cyberwarfare
4.    Cross-domain integration,and communication relay.
5.    Nearshore fire support and looking over the hill
6.    Support of Ship-to-Objective Maneuver
7.    Harbor and coastal protection
8.    Naval force protection
9.    Deep strike
10.    Suppression of enemy air defenses
11.    Combat search and resque operations
12.    Countering mines in the sea and onland
13.    Early warning of coming missiles and small boats
14.     Countering diesel submarines, surface craft and antiship missiles
15.    Transporting and delivering combat supplies
16.    Refuellingplatforms
17.    Battledamageassessment
18.    Urbanwarfare
19.    Counteringpiracy and interdiction ops
20.    Assymetricthreatsandterrorism
21.     Detecting chemical, biological, radiological attack
Are there any weaknesses? Yes there are. For the moment UV’s have relatively low maneuverability and low speed. They arevulnerable to attack from air defense systems and to cyber and communications link attack. Vast quantity of data collected requires sophisticated data analysis to enable the data be analyzed and distributed.
Are there challenges for UV’s? Yes there are. Provision is needed for legislation concerning safety, privacy, civil rights and liberties, as well as air traffic regulations.A lot of technical challenges have to be faced like interoperability and standardization, energy storage, navigation, sensing, and control, satellite integrated telemetry, data access, training, flexibility for man – machine interface, autonomy and automation capabilities, hypersonic flight,swarm UV’s, cyber defense, detect, intercept, and neutralize offensive drones e.tc..
According to the technology trends, UV’s, in near future are going to have longer endurance batteries, better fuel efficiencies, better stealth technologies and better sense and avoid systems. Future UV’s are going to be multi-mission oriented, cheaper, smaller, lighter, more efficient, with capable sensors and more onboardcomputing power. Their survivability will be greatly improved(stealthy, stand-off, longer-range weapons, longer-range communications e.tc.) and they are going to have access to a tactical network system capable of satisfying Service, Joint, Interagency, and Coalition tactical information exchanges.
Lets now refer to some facts:
In 2014 $13 million worth of UAVs were sold on Ebay alone. Some 30,000 unmanned watercraft are expected to be built over the next decade at a cost of over US$15 billion. Over 600,000 UAS have been already deployed for commercial use. In addition, 1.9 million UAS are expected to be in recreational use. The number of UAS is set to triple by 2020. According to the US Department of Defense China alone is looking to produce 42,000 unmanned air and maritime systems between 2014 and 2023.
The European Defense Agency is sponsoring pan-European research and development for both military and civilian drones. The European Space Agency is funding and undertaking research into the satellites and communications infrastructure used to fly drones. FRONTEX is keen to deploy surveillance drones along the EU’s borders for migrants and refugees. Within 20 years, the European drone sector is expected to directly employ more than 100,000 people and will have an economic impact exceeding EUR 10 billion per year, mainly in services.
Since the technology is “interoperable” – meaning civil and military drones will share much of the infrastructure that they need to fly – support for companies developing civilian drones inevitably benefits the manufacturers of the military drones.
If in any country’s armed forces there is notadynamic transformation procedure,exploiting innovation and new technologies, then there is a great probability that these armed forces will fight their future war with the conditions of the last and that is aformula for failure. All the above capabilities and missions of UV’s, seems that create a new era in strategic, operational and tactical level. That leads to an immediate obligation, for our ownarmed forces to reevaluate the potential adversaries capabilities and possible actions, to exploit to the maximum possible level these new technologies and accordingly to review thearmed forces Force Structure, Command Structure, operational and tactical planning, the acquisition programs and the training procedures. UV’s technology creates also new opportunities for domestic defense industry. Of course to grasp any opportunities requiresa strategic vision and quick and coordinated decisions, because opportunities do not wait forever.
An indication of HEL.I.S.S’s interest,is its participationin this conference with four lecturers andis always available to contribute to any possible initiative to this direction.
I wish that this meeting will be beneficial for every service, company or physical person engaged to the subject of UV’s.
17 – May - 2017
Vice Admiral (rtrd) V. Martzoukos HN
Honorable Commanding Officer of the Hellenic Naval Academy
President of Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies