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Geography has to do with the fact that Turkey is located at the geopolitical crossroads, which separates the transatlantic world from the corresponding Asian one where economic, political and social upheavals are constantly at the forefront. This fact has the consequence that these upheavals directly affect Turkey.

Turkey's demographic structure is rooted in Muslims of Central Asian origin. However, Ottoman origins and population movements have made Turkey a country that claims a demographic role, simultaneously, in Europe, Asia, the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, the Balkans, and the Caucasus.

History, as a structural element of Turkish foreign policy, concerns Ankara's pursuit of restoring bridges of communication with the peoples and states that were under Ottoman occupation and then penetrating them culturally, economically and politically.

And finally, the main goals of national policy have to do with the Turkish perception that an independent political and economic power will result in the possibility of exercising an independent foreign policy. In this regard, Ankara's decision to maintain equal distances between the United States and Russia may create problems in US-Turkish relations with direct consequences for its economic power, however, Turkey estimates that, ultimately, its regional and partly global profile will be upgraded.

Consequently, and until the completion of the update of the National Security Policy Document, the current US-Turkish crisis has forced Ankara to define a new strategy which includes the following:

1nd: The creation of a strong mechanism for dialogue with the capitals of countries that oppose the behavior of the United States in the global system, with the ultimate goal of presenting the findings of this dialogue to the United Nations General Assembly in September. It is noted that the General Assembly does not have the power to impose specific actions on any government of a member state, but its recommendations have moral weight as an expression of global public opinion.
Therefore, the General Assembly, with its discussions and conclusions, exercises a moral control that manifests itself as pressure on the interested parties. (ed.) The sessions of the General Assembly are divided into regular, extraordinary and special.
a. The Ordinary Session meets every year on September 3 and continues until mid-December of the same year.
b. An emergency session may be convened at the request of the Security Council or a majority of the members of the Organization, or even a member supported by the majority.
c. The special session is convened within 24 hours for very urgent matters and if requested by nine members of the Security Council or a majority of the members of the UN or even a member of the UN supported by the majority.).

2nd: The channel of communication with the United States should remain open.

3nd: Collaboration with countries such as Kuwait, Qatar and China to secure sources of funding.

4nd: Approaching European Union countries that will be directly affected by a potential bankruptcy of Turkey in the economic sector, as well as suffering the direct consequences if the Ankara-EU agreement on the refugee issue is jeopardized. For this reason, it was decided to carry out symbolic actions aimed at public opinion in European Union countries in order to reverse the negative profile of the Turkish government and President Erdogan. Consequently, the release of the two Greek soldiers and the honorary president of Amnesty International on August 15 is perceived as the initial stage of a potential rapprochement of Ankara with Europe. It is particularly noted that this should not create illusions and be perceived by the Greek side as a step by Ankara to resolve the Greek-Turkish differences. Besides, the formation of three new commando brigades, the 41st in Vize in Eastern Thrace, the 7th in Sakarya, subordinate to the Aegean Army, and the 17th in Trebizond, argue in favor of this view, given that the Turkish threat is being upgraded numerically and qualitatively.

5nd: Attempt to improve diplomatic relations with Egypt.

6nd: Suspension of the agreement on the use of the Turkish air base at İncirlik and withdrawal of the air forces of foreign states from it.

7nd: Prohibition of flights by United States aircraft to participate in air operations and intelligence gathering operations.

8nd: Withdrawal of the AN-TRY-2 radar, which has been installed since 2012 in the Kürecik area of ​​Malatya in southeastern Turkey, consequently depriving it of the ability to provide early warning in the event of a ballistic missile launch from eastern and northern Iran.

9nd: Prohibition on NATO AWACS early warning aircraft from using Turkish airports.

10nd: Signing of an agreement with the pseudo-state in occupied Cyprus for the creation of military, air and naval bases in addition to the existing ones.

11nd: Suspension of the $11 billion agreement with the American multinational company Boeing, signed on 22-09-2017, for the supply of 25 (+5 options) Dreamliner 787-900 aircraft to meet the needs of Turkish Airlines THK.

12nd: Termination of the NATO operation in the Aegean to limit refugee flows.

13nd: Announcement of temporary suspension of Turkish participation in NATO exercises in the Black Sea.

14nd: Announcement of withdrawal of Turkish naval participation from the UN UNIFIL operation in Lebanon.

15nd: Re-evaluation of the Turkey-US Defense Cooperation Agreement.

16nd: Launching cooperation processes with Iran in the defense industry sector.

17nd: Announcement of suspension of the Agreement with the European Union on the readmission of illegal immigrants.

18nd: Launching the procedures for seeking recognition of the pseudo-state in occupied Cyprus by Russia.

19nd: Announcement that Georgia's NATO candidacy will not be signed.

20nd: Non-recognition of Skopje's new name for North Macedonia.

21nd: Completion of the trial against American pastor Andrew Brunson in open court in a short period of time.

22nd: Continuation of psychological operations inside the country and abroad (mainly Islamic countries) in order for public opinion in the countries to adopt the view that the United States sanctions are depriving the Turkish people of their bread.  

In conclusion, one can easily understand that, under the current circumstances, Tayyip Erdoğan is applying his usual tactics. That is, he is demonstrating that he is ready to cross red lines, but with the goal of achieving a win-win (ed. kazan kazan in Turkish). Also, a second issue that arises has to do with the fact that the way in which Erdoğan is managing the current crisis is deemed appropriate to be perceived as the modus operandi of a possible Greek-Turkish crisis in the future.

* Christos Minagias is a brigadier general (retd.), geostrategic analyst and author of five books. His first book, entitled “Turkey’s Geopolitical Strategy and Military Power,” was published in 2010. In 2014, his books were published with the titles “Uncovering the Turkish Labyrinth-Islam and Politics in Turkey,” “The Turkey Confidential File-Turkey’s National Strategy,” and “Turkish Armed Forces and Armaments.” And in 2018, his book, entitled “Turkey’s Fronts of Conflict and War,” was published.

Sources:
– Turkish university professor Cagri Erhan
– Turkish columnist Aslı Aydıntaşbaş
– www.21yyte.org/