Ioannis Baltzoi: Hubris and the Kurdish Tragedy!!

Ioannis Baltzoi: Hubris and the Kurdish Tragedy!!

After the latest events in Iraqi Kurdistan, but also in the wider region, let us try to look with a cool eye at the developments, the mistakes of a leader, and the American and European "betrayal", as many analysts believe, which ultimately led to the success and projection of power and influence of Russia and Iran, after Syria and in Iraq.


And if the Kurdish referendum is examined together with the Catalan referendum, we will come to the conclusion that the now decapitation-by-leadership referendums, which have created so much controversy in recent weeks, were caused by a mistaken and destructive self-confidence of the separatists, which ultimately resulted in what in ancient times was called... Hubris!

Much has been said about the Catalan events, especially about the excessive police violence, in a European country, that erupted against people who were waiting peacefully to vote. Even about the lack of judgment of the opponents of independence, the Catalans who were apparently the majority according to the polls, who boycotted the vote, instead of simply going and voting, so that in the end the result would be negative for the independence of Catalonia, as they did in Quebec and Scotland. The result, the dramatic developments that we are witnessing today, with the persecution of elected representatives of the Catalan Parliament and the flight and self-exile of the Catalan leader in Brussels.

But in Iraqi Kurdistan, things are different and a real tragedy is now unfolding. Let's start with Ibri!! Ignoring almost universal objections and accusations from the international community to cancel or postpone the referendum, the Barzani government arrogantly proceeded with a referendum on independence, despite the fact that for many years Iraqi Kurdistan had already been independent in everything except name, resulting in a good political and military entity for the region that helped immensely in the fight against the Islamic State, a stable and loyal ally of the US, as well as Israel, which helped in various ways in the military and political field.

Thus, Barzani, as Dr. Spyros Plakoudas, Assistant Professor at the American University in the Emirates, rightly points out in an article on Liberal.gr, took for granted the unconditional support of the US for him and underestimated the other variables in the equation: Iraq, Iran and his internal rival Talabani, son of the recently deceased historical leader of the Kurds. Talabani never hid his dislike for Barzani and his sympathy and orientation towards Iran, as a result of which he undermined every effort of Barzani. Barzani relied only on Israeli support, which ultimately proved to be without substance, since it yielded nothing. Thus, the US considered Barzani's referendum to be adventurous, since according to their assessments, it undermined the cohesion and effectiveness of the multi-party alliance for the final destruction and elimination of ISIS.

And we come to the factor of the military power of Iraqi Kurdistan, a very serious factor for the exercise and implementation of the foreign policy of even a hybrid form of state entity, such as Iraqi Kurdistan. The Peshmerga (the Kurdish army) of Barzani ultimately proved to be a "Paper Tiger". Let us recall that in 2014, during the advance of the ISIS jihadists in Iraq, Barzani's Peshmerga retreated from the Sinjar region, without firing a shot and left the Yazidis at the mercy of the jihadists, surrounded and helpless, leaving them on the verge of ethnic cleansing. The tragic scenes of the surrounded Yazidis on Mount Sinjar by jihadists and the captivity of Yazidi women to be used as sex slaves by the anthropomorphic religious beasts of ISIS shocked and moved all of humanity. And they were finally saved thanks to the intervention of the PKK, that is, the Kurds of Turkey and Syria (YPG).

Well, that's exactly how they acted recently after the referendum, when the Iraqi army moved against them, easily occupying the Kirkuk region, which the Kurds had illegally but peacefully occupied since 2014, simply because the US air force refused to assist and support them. So because of their leader Barzani, the Kurds of Iraq are in the worst place since 2003. With this disastrous policy, Barzani, isolated from the international community and not accepted by a part of his own people, was finally forced to resign on November 1 and cede control of the two border crossings with Turkey to Iraq, thus depriving Iraqi Kurdistan of significant revenues.

In Israel, there is now concern and criticism about Israel's political stance on the Kurdish referendum. They believe that Israel should have advised the Kurds to postpone their referendum. They also believe that Iran is the big winner with these developments, since they have already ensured the cohesion of the "Shiite Axis" (Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon) and that the Iranians have neutralized, according to the Iranian perspective, the emergence of a "second Israel" within Iraq. According to an American website, "you don't play chess with the Persians, because they invented it." Another major beneficiary of the developments is Russia, which by signing agreements with both Erbil and Baghdad, Moscow clearly avoids taking sides in favor of one side or the other, implementing a masterful foreign policy, to the detriment of the US, which we could say does not have a clear and unified but vacillating policy in the region, since they essentially "abandoned" a loyal and unwaveringly friendly and important partner in the region, Kurdish Iraq. A Kurdish entity in the region primarily benefits the US and Israel.
However, it shows a weakness in Washington's political perception, resulting in skepticism among its current or future allies.

In addition to the moral outrage, the US (and European) stance is incredibly counterproductive, according to Israeli analysts, who continue to worry about Iranian power projection in a region that is considered to be part of their own sphere of influence and constitutes the Israeli power projection, namely Iraqi Kurdistan. The best chance of creating a barrier to the Iranian creation of a client state bridge between Iran and Lebanon was, according to Israeli policy, the revival of the Kurds of Iraq and Syria. And Israel had the best opportunity to overcome its Arab and Persian enemies to the north and east, but American manipulations did not allow it, but all this is history. The winners were Iran, Russia and Iraq, which is now under greater Iranian control, a fact that has greatly worried Israel. This is what the US has “achieved” since 2003, with hundreds of thousands of dead and hundreds of billions of dollars. and which is still ongoing, according to Economics and National Security Professor Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., of the University of Haifa, in an article in the Israeli financial website Globes. And the Israeli professor concludes: “Let’s hope that something can be salvaged from the rubble, especially now that Massoud Barzani has resigned as president of the KRG. Perhaps Israel can play a role in picking up the pieces. Time will tell.”

In conclusion, we would say that in the Kurdish tragedy we have a combination of hubris, disintegration, cowardice and betrayal, resulting in a serious destruction of the Western position in the Middle East and the destruction of the hopes of thirty million Kurds in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. This was worse than a mistake. It was a crime. The culprits are sought and exist on all sides, except for the permanently betrayed Kurdish people.