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THE CONTINUING CRISIS IS NOT NORMAL………..

Of the Honorary General of the Hellenic Air Force, Lieutenant Colonel Konos Ziazias.

Turkey, with the announcement of its "intention" to conduct seismic surveys and subsequently "set up" a mining platform within the Greek Continental Shelf in the near future, appears to be taking the next step in upgrading its revisionist strategy in achieving its illegal national goals.

It is clear that Turkey has upgraded its challenges-claims "quantitatively and qualitatively". It is conducting overflights over inhabited islands of the Aegean, challenging Greek sovereign rights related to the National Airspace and the territorial status of certain islands, islets and rocky islets. It is issuing NAYTEX in selected areas with the aim of achieving the operational division of the Aegean in the long term and the full operational control of the Eastern Mediterranean in the medium term.

Turkey's motives in its relations with Greece are not determined by the domestic political audience, as some analysts within Greece argue, but by the nationalism that permeates Turkish foreign policy, regardless of leadership or ideologies, namely Kemalism or Islamism. What has been happening in the Aegean since 1974 or in the eastern Mediterranean in the last decade is an exercise of Turkish national policy, which national policy we should have studied, appreciated and faced rationally and dynamically.

And today, Turkey threatens - announces that it intends, during the summer months, to conduct seismic surveys southeast of the Kastelorizo ​​- Rhodes - Karpathos - Crete arc and to "set up" a mining platform close to the territorial waters of the 6 nautical miles of our country, an action that constitutes an extension of the illegal Turkish-Libyan pact and not part of it. It is a fact that the movement of a research vessel within the Greek continental shelf creates an issue of sovereignty but not a fait accompli. However, the setting up of a mining platform creates a fait accompli, because around the drilling site Turkey will exercise sovereign rights and will be able to maintain security forces, with all that this entails.

The Turks have done everything in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. The dispute over the area south of Crete has been going on since 1996 when, during the NATO exercise “Dynamic-Mix”, Turkey raised the issue of excluding the island of Gavdos, as an area of ​​undetermined ownership. This was preceded by the Imia crisis, which brought to the surface the theory of “gray” zones. Methodically and always assessing our reactions, they move from one level to the next higher one, achieving individual goals, without creating heated incidents, but relying on the appeasement policy that Greek governments have been implementing for years. Turkey, of course, is not favored by "Geography" when it comes to the Law of the Sea, and for this reason it has engaged in this effort to impose its illegal "blue homeland" by force.

In general, Turkey is "building" its image through military means as a "co-manager" of the Aegean and the SE Mediterranean with the aim of putting as many issues as possible on the "agenda" of its claims, with a supposedly legal "cloak", in order to "lead" Greece to the negotiating table, with an "inflated" agenda of issues, where Greece has only to lose since it claims nothing, while Turkey claims everything.

Turkey seems to be using the same model, the same strategy, in the Greek EEZ area that it applied with the research and drilling in the Cypriot EEZ, but it probably did not rationally assess that Greece has one of the most capable naval forces in NATO and it is a given that it will defend its national interests, if required.

If Turkey achieves its goals in the Eastern Mediterranean, this will have dramatic implications for the country's national security as well as the security of CYPRUS. For the first time, Cyprus will be at risk of being cut off, by a maritime zone, from the national center, which requires special attention at both the military and diplomatic levels.

Erdogan chooses this period of time to carry out his illegal actions due to circumstances within Turkey (his popularity is falling, the economy, despite international injections, is in decline, the response to the pandemic is not the best), but mainly due to the upcoming elections in the USA. The American elections will be held in November, with current President Trump trailing by 11 points the candidate for the presidency, President Biden. Erdogan knows this, and he understands that whatever he has to do, he must do it by November, imposing a fait accompli in the Aegean, Cyprus and the SE Mediterranean.

In our country, unfortunately, the doctrine "we do not claim anything" prevailed and has prevailed for years, which has led us to this deadlock. Turkey's provocations-claims must not become "routine", become a "national addiction" for the current rulers, for our people, considering that this is how evil is exorcised... The ongoing crisis is not normality, as the neighbors want and support. The continuous submission, the self-disarmament with the abandonment of the Armed Forces in recent years, the famous strategic composure and the continuous invocation of international law without a dynamic claim to it, all these years, have not brought the desired results for our country, which is why we must change the national strategy for dealing with Turkish provocation. National strategy is certainly a concept that, while often mentioned in the Greek political dialogue, the fundamental dilemmas and problems it encompasses have been little understood. However, we must, even now, design the strategy of our national survival, which is based on stable international alliances, common interests, common goals, but mainly based on strong and reliable deterrence. We need a new strategy that cannot be based on our abstention from exercising the rights that international law grants us.

The Greek governments over the years, to use military terminology, have been "slowing down on successive locations and on green ground" and trying to "shift" the problems that touch on national issues to the next government. They are running to "see" and not to assess, to predict Turkey's next step, both on the international chessboard and in our bilateral relations, in general they are running behind developments.

Today, Erdogan, estimating that the Greek government will not react dynamically and will limit itself to diplomatic actions, proceeds to illegally question our national sovereignty in the Eastern Mediterranean. If the situation reaches a heated engagement, it will be a shipwreck of Greek deterrence, which the last governments have invoked so much, but have done little to make it strong and reliable. The militarization of the crisis is a given despite the contrary narratives of Greek foreign policy.

Erdogan is not only seeking to seize any energy wealth from the Republic of Cyprus and Greece. He is also seeking to consolidate the “Blue Homeland,” his vision of turning the heart of the Eastern Mediterranean into a “Turkish lake.”

The Greek government must realize, even at the last minute, that Greek-Turkish relations should no longer be treated with "old tools", such as demarches, NATO and European Union briefings, constant invocation of international law, these are formal procedures, which have not contributed anything to the healing of the wounds of Greek-Turkish relations. It is time to create "diplomatic noise", to abandon passive diplomacy, to abandon the diplomacy of the "beggar" and to come forward claiming our rights, we should not be taken for granted. Greece should not follow the developments that Turkey is trying to initiate, but to shape the developments itself, on the basis of a national strategy and the promotion of our national interests.

Thus, I estimate, taking into account of course the possibilities that the Armed Forces provide to the political leadership to pursue an aggressive foreign policy, that it is within the capabilities of our Country to take dynamic actions, with regional and international impact, after informing friends and allies of our DECISION, such as:

* To appeal to the UN and denounce Turkish aggression and hold the international community accountable, as well as our allies in NATO and the European Union.

* Let us proceed with the alignment of our coasts and the closure of the bays, as suggested by the esteemed professors Mazis and Syrigos.

* To Turkey's coup actions, the answer is International Legality, which means expanding air and sea sovereignty to 12 nautical miles, throughout the territory. We are the only country in the world that has 6-mile territorial waters. All the others have 12 miles. We have the smallest maritime zones in the world. Let's abandon the phobic syndrome that created Turkey's Casus Belli.

* Declaring an EEZ and immediately notifying the coordinates to the UN, so that the difference with Turkey is officially recorded. Here it must be emphasized that the Continental Shelf exists in itself in every state, it does not need to be declared. However, delimitation IS REQUIRED. The EEZ needs to be declared unilaterally and IS REQUIRED to be delimited.

Afterwards, talks can follow with all the countries bordering the sea and any differences can be settled. Our principle must be that we do not "take" our sovereign rights, which are based on international law and international treaties, to international courts.

Greece's reaction to any attempt by Turkey to create a "fait accompli" within the Greek continental shelf, stems from the already taken and declared political decision of the Greek government not to accept a violation of its sovereign rights. The Leadership of the Armed Forces must interpret this decision as a clear General Directive to repel any attempt to violate our sovereign rights and transform it into a military operational task. This specific message has been sent with emphasis to enemies and friends who are concerned about the course that Greek-Turkish relations have taken. From there on, the violation will be dealt with at a tactical level by those who monitor Turkish movements, according to existing plans and the data of the time of occurrence of any incident.

Another possibility we have is to show characteristic determination to defend our national sovereignty, (as in 1987) that is, to project strong and credible deterrence, accompanied by dynamic military actions, which will force Turkey to think much more before doing anything. Of course, this requires mainly governmental will, but also military and diplomatic flexibility.

However, we must also study in detail the lessons learned during the Imia crisis. There is still the possibility and it is most likely that, in the event of a crisis - a heated episode in the SE Mediterranean, the Americans will intervene again and impose a "no flags, no ships, no troops" agreement again, resulting in the graying of the wider Eastern Mediterranean region, where Turkey loses nothing, but with disastrous consequences for the security of the Country, but also for the existence of CYPRUS, since it is cut off from the National Center.

In any case, our country is prepared for all eventualities, as the Minister of National Defense recently assured the Greek people.

The Military Leadership provides the Political Leadership with all the capabilities of the Armed Forces to implement the imposed policies, to defend our national interests and to ensure the sovereign rights deriving from international law and international treaties.

We are in the greatest crisis since 1974 and we must all, with unity and national upliftment, help the Homeland get through this crisis painlessly and without losses.

Militaire.gr