What to expect from a second Trump term
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump has unveiled a ten-point program that he claims will “drain the swamp of the Deep State” and establish “a government controlled by the people and working for the people». Inevitably, many wonder what will really change in the US if Trump is re-elected president.
The answer may be helped by a historical review of the real capabilities of a president within the suffocating environment shaped by the Deep State, the security-intelligence services and the military-industrial complex that influence government policy externally. When John F. Kennedy was elected president in 1961, outgoing President Dwight Eisenhower had warned him: "You will give orders to government officials, but in many cases they will ignore you and undermine your policies. You must be ruthless with them.».
Eisenhower was not listened to by Kennedy, with disastrous results for his presidency, such as the failed Bay of Pigs invasion. Kennedy then realized that the CIA, FBI, and Department of Defense were undermining him, while the State Department was not helping him. But it was too late. Sixty years later, the intelligence agencies have refused to give a clear explanation for their refusal to release the documents of the Kennedy assassination investigation, in flagrant violation of the 1992 Transparency Act.
The perennial problem of every US president is that all the actors in the so-called “swamp” of Washington are invested in the status quo and fight any attempt at change. Referring to the power of these people who meet in clubs in the Georgetown neighborhood of Washington, Henry Kissinger jokingly said: “The hand that stirs the Georgetown martini is again and again the hand that guides the fate of the Western world.».
Who opposed Trump?
President Trump has been a controversial figure. Congress, which was under Democratic control for most of his term, was a fierce but institutional opponent. Other factors have done great damage to Trump. Specifically:
First. Trump had to deal with state intelligence agencies dominated by individuals with anti-institutional views. The eight years of Obama’s presidency saw major changes in CIA personnel, especially during the period when its Director was the ruthless John Brennan – the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) accused him of supporting prisoner torture tactics and extrajudicial killings outside America).
Thousands of activists were then recruited, which changed the balance. While until then CIA employees were divided between voters of both parties, as the results of the subsequent elections in Virginia show, in the areas where CIA employees live, the Democratic Party is overwhelmingly dominant (e.g., 2020 elections, Arlington County, 82% Democrats).
As reported by Pedro Israel Orta, former CIA officer and author of the book “The Broken Whistle: A Deep State Run Amok,” the anti-Trump frenzy at the CIA reached such a point that in 2018 the chief of personnel issued a directive stating that CIA employees must respect the state hierarchy and that if someone was mentally disturbed due to the Trump presidency, they should seek psychiatric help!
Many abusive emails against Trump from top FBI directors (e.g. Peter Strzok) documented their intentions to undermine him. Even the Democratic leader of the Senate, Chuck Schumer, referring to the confrontation between the intelligence agencies and Trump, confessed on MSNBC that the intelligence agencies have many ways to get revenge on him. We have reached a pivotal moment for the US: It was common for its intelligence agencies to conspire against the leaders of foreign countries. Now Schumer was openly admitting that this was being done against the leader of their own country.
Second. Trump’s efforts to purge the government apparatus have failed, largely due to the inability of congressional committees to scrutinize the activities of government intelligence agencies and the dealings of the military-industrial complex, which finances the election campaigns of most congressmen and senators. Their “inability” to scrutinize it is therefore not surprising.
As they write, Medium and other former officials of these agencies, intelligence agencies use various ways to impose their agenda on the legislature. In addition to bribes and blackmail for revelations about the personal lives of politicians, a common way is through security clearances. Representatives and senators do not have the time to study the voluminous material related to the various committees.
This work is done by their staff – even the bills are written, to a significant extent, by the staff. Because the security clearances of the staff are issued by the intelligence agencies, the latter often manipulate the members of Congress, selecting only the personnel they directly control. Inevitably, then, a significant portion of this staff are intelligence agents. Also, most whistleblowers do not dare to denounce intelligence abuses to congressional committees, since they know that these committees usually cover up intelligence irregularities.
Thirdly. Most importantly, Trump was undermined by Republican congressmen and senators at critical times in his presidency. In 2017, the Republican-controlled Congress voted to appoint a special counsel (Robert Mueller) to investigate their party’s newly elected president, an unprecedented move that seriously damaged Trump’s presidency. Again, Republican senators (John McCain, among others) voted against Trump’s healthcare plan, which was a key campaign promise, dealing another blow to his presidency.
As revealed by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Glenn Greenwald, in 2020 the Republican leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell threatened Trump that he would vote for a second impeachment against him if he pardoned journalist Julian Assange (hated by the intelligence community because of his revelations against them). As a result of all of the above, nothing institutionally significant changed during Trump's presidency. The federal bureaucracy was not touched and Trump never had control over the Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs, as well as the intelligence services. These institutions remained firmly in the hands of his enemies.
The new division of the US
American society is deeply divided today. Justice is politicized and therefore biased. In cities where the police are defunded by activist politicians, crime is out of control. Freedom of speech is increasingly restricted. Many federal bureaucrats work against the interests of society. In such a climate, ordinary Americans expect a president who will truly want to “drain the swamp” and, above all, will have the strength of character to do so.
Whether because he was unwilling or unable, in his first term Trump proved to be below the expectations of his voters. He told them he would “drain the swamp,” but he did not. On the contrary, he broke most of his promises (e.g., completing the border wall), while repeatedly making concessions, giving top positions to Deep State officials (e.g., making the war-mongering John Bolton National Security Advisor).
Even today, those who are supposed to be on Trump's side are doing everything they can to ensure that the status quo does not change in the event of his re-election. Under the leadership of the Republican Mike Johnson, Congress continues to pass bills (e.g., Ukraine war funding) that tie Trump’s hands. As their past shows, most of Trump’s current associates, if reelected, will likely serve the status quo again. In such a stifling environment, there is no guarantee that a second term will be any different from the first.