Israel, Greece and Cyprus must prepare a contingency plan for the liberation of the northern part of the island.
Northern Cyprus is also an Israeli problem
by Shay Gal
It is not Israel's role or desire to liberate Northern Cyprus. However, if the threat from the region reaches a critical level, Israel's strategic stance must change. Israel, in cooperation with Greece and Cyprus, must prepare a contingency plan for the liberation of the northern part of the island.
A few days ago was the 51st anniversary of the 1974 Turkish invasion – a lasting traumatic experience for Greek Cypriots. For decades, Israel treated this conflict as a distant Greek-Turkish issue, but now it must clearly recognize: Northern Cyprus is not just a Greek Cypriot problem – it is also an Israeli one. In practical terms, Northern Cyprus functions as an international terra nullius, allowing Turkey and terrorist groups such as Hamas and Iran's Quds Force unhindered operational freedom.
Since the invasion, which killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands, Turkey’s presence has quietly transformed. The area is now a Turkish military outpost, hosting advanced weapons systems, cyber-surveillance and SIGINT (signals intelligence) infrastructure capable of intercepting Israeli military and civilian communications, alongside covert terrorist facilities supported by Ankara. According to leaked intelligence documents, senior Turkish officials have described the Northern Cyprus as an ideal location "where anything can be done without interference from police or judicial authorities."
Turkey can deploy armed drones from Lefkonikos airport – converted from an abandoned airfield into a drone base amid regional gas disputes – much more quickly than from its mainland bases. Since May 2021, Turkey has officially stationed armed Bayraktar TB2 drones there, and more advanced Akinci UAVs were publicly displayed in a military parade in July 2024.
These UAVs can rapidly target Israeli gas platforms, naval vessels, and strategic targets.
In addition, Turkey’s advanced ATMACA anti-ship missiles, with a range of over 200 km, could directly threaten Israeli maritime assets, including critical gas platforms. In addition, Turkey’s new Typhoon ballistic missile is capable of accurately hitting targets up to 560 km away. According to Western intelligence, missile bases in Kyrenia and Famagusta are already ready for deployment, posing Turkey’s first direct ballistic threat to Israel, with the ability to hit Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and the Haifa Bay.
At the same time, the EU continues security cooperation with Ankara, despite Turkey's occupation of European territory – a contradiction that undermines the Union's credibility and endangers Greece, Cyprus and Israel.
Ankara’s aggressive foreign policy, characterized by illegal occupations, sanctions violations, and ties to extremist groups, aligns it with illegitimate regimes rather than NATO allies. Given the requirement for unanimity in NATO and Turkey’s strained relations within the alliance, Article 5 protection is unlikely even in unrelated conflicts, and practically impossible with respect to Northern Cyprus, which is internationally recognized as Cypriot territory.
However, the threat is not exclusively military. Due to the lack of effective international oversight, the occupied territory has become a hub for terrorist financing and money laundering, with illicit Iranian and Turkish funds flowing through shell companies to support Hamas and other terrorist organizations.
Documents seized during Operations "Guardian of the Walls" (2021) and "Iron Swords" (2023) in Gaza revealed Hamas' plans to establish an operational branch in Turkey and Northern Cyprus, with the mission of carrying out attacks against Israelis in Europe.
Furthermore, in 2023, a Quds Force cell revealed in the region was planning attacks against Israeli targets in Europe. This Iranian cell highlights the status of Northern Cyprus as a safe haven for anti-Israeli operations. Thus, Turkish control of Northern Cyprus allows Turkey and Iran to circumvent sanctions and escalate their strategic threat against Israel. Additionally, hotels, casinos, universities and ports in Northern Cyprus have been reported as covert espionage hubs, extortion and intelligence operations coordinated by Turkish security forces and organized crime networks, including "honey" operations targeting international officials.
It is neither Israel's role nor its desire to liberate Northern Cyprus. However, if the threat from the region reaches a critical threshold, Israel's strategic stance must change. Israel, in coordination with Greece and Cyprus, must prepare an emergency operation to liberate the northern part of the island.
Such an operation would neutralize the possibilities of Turkish reinforcement from the mainland, destroy the anti-aircraft systems in Northern Cyprus, eliminate the information and command centers, and ultimately would remove Turkish forces, restoring internationally recognized Cypriot sovereignty. The emergency plan could be named "The Wrath of Poseidon", from the Greek god of the sea, emphasizing dominance in the maritime domain and the catastrophic consequences of an extreme escalation scenario. The name underscores Israel’s commitment to protecting strategic maritime resources and maintaining open sea lanes critical to regional security. This will remain a contingency plan: Israel does not seek conflict, but must be fully prepared. An Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, once considered an extremely unlikely scenario, has finally materialized. Turkey, which is currently building the troubled Akkuyu nuclear power plant on its Mediterranean coast—a project that Russia is rapidly abandoning due to recognized risks—should internalize this lesson.
Shay Gal εis an expert in international politics, crisis management and strategic communication. He works at the international level, focusing on power dynamics, geopolitical strategy and public diplomacy, and their influence on policymaking.