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TURKEY: THE ATTEMPT TO LEGALLY SUPPORT THE "CONFLICTUAL BLUE HOMELAND"

AND ITS OBJECTIVES AT THE BURDEN OF GREECE AND CYPRUS

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*Soldier Charalambos Antgou (PB) n.a.

Turkey, under Erdogan, faithfully following the strategy that has been outlined, to the detriment of Greece and Cyprus, proceeded, in addition to its established revisionist policy and practical challenges to sovereignty and sovereign rights, to the effort to create a legal basis to support the controversial and condemnable by all international media and organizations project of the "Blue Homeland". Specifically, the "National Research Center for the Law of the Sea" of Ankara University (founded in 2010) proceeded to draft a law that grants powers to the president, regarding the delimitation of the maritime zones in the Black Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. This law, which was introduced in the relevant parliamentary committee but the required actions were postponed to the autumn, is a follow-up to the publication by Turkey in April 2025 to the UNESCO Oceanographic Commission of the Maritime Economic Activities Chart, which delineated boundaries that bisect the Aegean Sea. A special point of the law states that “… Turkey will not accept territorial waters in the Aegean Sea beyond 6 miles …” with reference to the decision of the Turkish Grand National Assembly of 1995 (Casus Belli).

The Dilemma posed by President Trump

In the changing and unstable geopolitical environment of the wider region, on the one hand due to the war with Iran and Israel's conflict with pro-Iranian forces in Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza and on the other hand with the problematic operation of the Straits of Hormuz (through which a large part of oil and LNG is transported) (1) which will continue to exist even after an agreement is reached between the US and Iran, Turkey wishes to become a regulatory factor for the countries' security and an energy hub, promoting pipelines and trade corridors through its territory (See Map).

Of course, a key problem remains, the rivalry with Israel, which has not led to the severance of diplomatic relations, nor to the cessation of intelligence cooperation, nor to the interruption of oil flows from the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The big dilemma for President Erdogan is the “ public recommendation by President Trump that Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar should join the Abraham Accords plan ”. So far, only Pakistan has publicly refused, the others have not expressed an opinion, especially the “ideal and strong leader according to President Trump” (2) and friend of President Erdogan of Turkey. President Erdogan knows very well that such a development will also mean his political end, regardless of the timing of the elections and the use of judicial power to split the main opposition party (CHP). This great dilemma that was posed to President Erdogan can temporarily be bypassed by using his special relationship with President Trump during the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8, 2026, but there are the following developments that constitute obstacles to his plans:

-The strategic cooperation between Israel, Greece and Cyprus, which also extends to the energy (3) and transport sectors (IMEC project) and constitutes one of the inhibiting factors for Turkey's desire to become an energy hub.

-The signed SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) by the Ministers of Defense of France (4) and Cyprus and its confirmation with statements by the two presidents, during the last informal summit of EU leaders in Nicosia.

-The instability prevailing in Iraq, despite the election of a prime minister who is trying to reconcile the aspirations of the various factions and integrate the pro-Iranian forces and the Kurdish forces (Pesmerga) into the regular army by September, when the forces' mission against the Islamic State ends.

-The uncertainty surrounding the peace plan with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), despite the initiatives of the seven-point roadmap and the proclamation of the imprisoned Öcalan as a regulator and main mediator, with the aim of weakening other Kurdish politicians. This affects the situation in Syria and Northern Iraq, as well as the possible electoral percentages of the ruling AKP party.

-Israel's apparent intention to create a large permanent security zone from the Mediterranean along its borders with Lebanon and Syria. The permanent presence of Israeli armed forces will deprive Turkey(5) of gaining control over all of Syrian territory, with all that this implies for energy-defense, etc.

-Russia's activity in Syria in the field of modernization of military infrastructure.

-The ability or not of Iran, after peace prevails, to control developments in Iraq-Lebanon-Gaza-Yemen.

-Turkey's attempt to create an axis against Israel with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan, in order to neutralize the cooperation between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain (the latter two countries are participants in the Abraham Accords). Which extends from Syria to Solaliland, which Israel officially recognized

Turkey's ambitious plan(6) to build new oil and gas pipelines depends heavily on the response to the dilemma posed by President Trump and is directly related to the state of the Turkish economy (in March 2026, foreign exchange reserves were reduced by $43 billion to support the Turkish lira) and its ability to support such plans. Media reports suggest that the US has proposed supporting it, through cooperation between the two central banks (swap), in order to reduce inflation, stop the decline of the Turkish lira and facilitate Erdogan's re-election.

In Western Thrace, Turkey's efforts to manipulate the Greek Muslim Minority continue unabated. Turkish officials visiting the region do not hesitate to make inflammatory speeches and create a climate of concern. At the same time, those who support the Greek legal order are being harassed, as was the case against the legal guardian Mufti of Xanthi in a mosque during prayer. The incident has been transferred to the courtrooms and the Greek judiciary is being called upon to apply the law. At the same time, the delay in appointing Muftis in Xanthi and Komotini gives the illegal Muftis, in collaboration with illegal organizations and with the instructions of the Turkish Consulate in Komotini, the opportunity to promote Turkey's plans, which have been integrated into a broader plan to influence and politically exploit Muslim communities in the Balkans (Roumel), using language, education and cultural activities as a vehicle.

Conclusions

Taking into account the above in combination with the angry reactions of Turkish officials to the initiatives of Greece and Cyprus and to the Greek initiative in Libya to begin discussions on the demarcation of an EEZ, it appears that the "Blue Homeland bubble" and the effort to create a legal basis (although it has no force in international relations) is done simply for Turkey to impose a status of dispute in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. With the aim of discouraging large companies from getting involved in projects in which it does not take part and to promote its own plans through its territory.

The upcoming NATO summit in Ankara on June 28-29, amid the US intentions to disengage forces from Europe, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, NATO's planning to create two new headquarters in Turkey (one land in SE Turkey and one naval in Istanbul), the already concluded bilateral defense cooperation between defense companies of Turkey and companies of NATO countries (Italy, Belgium, Spain), acquires particular importance. Greece should not accept the creation of a land headquarters in SE Turkey, the capabilities of which can be used against Cyprus and Greek sovereign rights in the Eastern Mediterranean. At this summit, Turkey, supported by the S.G. NATO and the US will try to remove any objections to its inclusion in the EU's defense plans and at the same time facilitate the special relationship it seeks, in order to benefit economically.

Under these circumstances and given the prevailing geopolitical instability and with developments in the US-Israeli war against Iran and the results that peace will bring unknown (7), the UN Secretary-General's initiative for a 5+1 meeting next month on the Cyprus issue is of particular importance, as there are new facts on the table: Cyprus has become an "advanced base" of the EU, Turkey (8) is increasing its already large military presence in the Occupied Territories, has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the United Kingdom (we experienced it in Syria and it is being promoted in Iraq) and recently recalled the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee and Article 5 of the NATO agreement. The information from the media so far shows verbal changes in the conditions set by the president of the Pseudo-State, with the aim of starting substantive talks between "two equal parties", sidelining the condemnatory resolutions of the UN Security Council, that is, equating the victim with the perpetrator.

Epilogue

Turkey, faithful to the implementation of its strategy and taking advantage of the geopolitical advantage provided by its geographical position, is trying to hold the course of Greek-Turkish relations and the resolution of the Cyprus problem "hostage" and "manipulate" them, with the "law to be submitted", a continuation of the casus belli, which since 1995 has prevented Greek governments from exercising the sovereign rights of the country. The invocation of "calm waters" and the press declarations of Athens (which are never respected by Turkey), have been found to harm national interests and essentially benefit the revisionist Turkey. Which is trying to "enter through the window" into the E. U. using its military power and at the same time to become a regulator of the security of the countries of the Middle East.

The faithful implementation of the Treaty of Lausanne, the Constitution and the Laws, without delays and political expediencies, is a necessity for the prevention of Turkish plans in Western Thrace. There is nothing left for Greece and Cyprus but to continue to "build" alliances, to promote deterrence policies in the fields of diplomacy, energy, etc. and at the same time to strengthen their deterrence capabilities, so as to discourage the potential invader.

1. In all the statements of Iranian officials, the attempt to establish control over ships in cooperation with Oman is evident, once peace is restored in the region, and at the same time the looming threat in every period of crisis to use the Straits as a lever of pressure to achieve the Iranian regime's goals, with unpredictable consequences for the global economy.
2. Moving on the same wavelength as the US president is the US ambassador to Ankara and Trump's special envoy for Syria, Lebanon and recently for Iraq, Tom Barrack, who stated at the Antalya diplomatic forum that "...sees Turkey's cooperation with Israel from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean..Democratic regimes have no place in the Middle East... ".
3. The recent signing of an agreement between the energy ministers of the US-Israel-Greece and Cyprus to establish an "Eastern Mediterranean Energy Center" in Houston, Texas, is an important step.
4. The French-Turkish rivalry began in the 2010s with the support of the second of the Islamic coups in the Sahel countries against friendly French governments.
5. In Turkey's attempt to penetrate the Middle East and bypass Israel by gaining contact with Hamas, Houthis, etc., there is a plan to revive the railway line connecting Turkey with the holy places (Mecca-Medina) (Hejaz railway), via Syria-Jordan.

6. Information from the media reports: Connection of Basra with the Turkish border (old plan) and parallel to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, Qatar-S. Arabia-Jordan-Syria-Turkey natural gas pipeline. Turkmenistan-Caspian-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey natural gas pipeline, Connection of oil sources in NE Syria with a pipeline from Kirkuk.

7. The media reports that an MOU has been signed between the US and Iran, which lays the groundwork for a long-term ceasefire on all fronts, with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the gradual release of frozen Iranian funds in Western banks (the UAE has already released $3 billion out of the total of $20 billion). Iran's nuclear program will be discussed next, on the condition that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.
8. Turkey's total financial assistance to the Occupied Territories for 2026 amounts to 20.7 billion TL (453 million USD), of which 9,65 billion TL (211 million USD) will be given for defense. At the same time, the construction of an electricity transmission cable in the Occupied Territories is being promoted, so that it does not depend on the Cyprus company.

* Stratis Charalambos Antgos (PB) is a Member of the E.L.M.