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Although the Islamic State has lost large areas since mid-2015, it still holds and controls territory in northwestern Iraq and northern and eastern Syria. In the short term, it may suffer further shrinkage of other territories, due to anti-jihadist operations conducted by the forces of both the US-led Western coalition in Syria and Iraq, and the Russian-Shiite coalition in Syria.

Indeed, over the past 12 months, the Islamic Caliphate has lost about 50% of the habitable territory it once held in Iraq and about 20% of the same territory in Syria. In addition, thousands of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's fighters have been killed in the fighting, and their numbers are rapidly dwindling. Accordingly, both the morale of the fighters and the Caliphate's revenues are declining.

In addition, US intelligence data shows that fewer foreign fighters are attempting to travel to Syria and Iraq. Instead, more are traveling to Libya, while a number of foreign fighters are trying to take advantage of migration and refugee flows to move to Europe. According to an estimate (February 2016) by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), since 2012, approximately 36.500 individuals from more than 100 countries have traveled to Syria to fight as members of various armed groups. This number included approximately 6.600 individuals from Western countries (Europe and the United States). [1]

The dozens of terrorist attacks carried out by trained ISIS jihadists or “lone wolves” demonstrate the organization’s major asymmetric threat and temper the international community’s optimism about its possible dismantling in a short period of time. In fact, CIA Director John Brennan, publicly referring to ISIS, stated that the organization is pursuing an agenda of carrying out terrorist acts abroad (outside of Syria and Iraq), resulting in a significant number of human casualties. [2] For its part, the US intelligence community has described ISIS as a “major global terrorist threat.”

Current and upcoming operations in Syria and Iraq

In northeastern Syria, the Caliphate lost territory to the Kurdish-Arab coalition of forces supported by the Western coalition air forces, while in the Aleppo and Palmyra area it lost territory to Russian-Shiite forces. In June 2016, US-backed ground forces are conducting operations with the objective of completely cutting off the access of Islamic State militants to the Turkish border and weakening the enclave, known as the “Manbij pocket”, that they maintain in northwestern Syria. In addition, these local forces are preparing for the upcoming attack on the city of Raqqah, which is controlled by Baghdadi’s jihadists.
 
In Iraq, the Islamic State has suffered defeats at the hands of Iraqi forces in Tikrit, Baiji, Sinjar, Ramadi, Hit, Haditha, Rutbah and surrounding areas. However, its fighters still hold Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, and control areas of Salahuddin, Nineveh and Anbar provinces, from which they conduct raids. Operations are currently underway to drive the jihadists out of the city of Fallujah in Anbar province, and a plan is being implemented to isolate Mosul, with the ultimate goal of capturing it in the near future. [3]

It is understood that on the one hand, plans are being prepared to implement the dismantling of the Caliphate, on the other hand, efforts continue to find a solution to the Syrian crisis, although the fragile agreement to end hostilities has collapsed. Further east, Iraq remains mired in a political and fiscal crisis, with Iraqi politicians and factions competing and promising to satisfy popular demands for improved internal security, service provision, and the elimination of corruption.

While progress has indeed been made in shrinking the territory held and controlled by the Islamic State, the competition and discord between local actors in both countries, as well as the interventionist behavior of state and non-state regional actors, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, Hezbollah, the Iraqi and Syrian Kurds, the Western military coalition, and Gulf countries, have created complications and delays in finding a solution. Each side acts almost unilaterally, in order to serve its interests, neutralize the threats directed against it, and determine to the extent possible the future of the areas abandoned by the Caliphate.

However, it should be understood that the loss of territory in Syria and Iraq does not necessarily lead to the dissolution of the Islamic State. However, it does lead to the deconstruction of the de facto state entity that constitutes the Caliphate and to its weakening as a terrorist organization. However, at this stage, the proliferation of terrorist acts, mainly in Europe and the United States, as well as the conduct of prolonged purge operations against the organization's fighters in Libya, should be considered almost a given. The leadership of the Caliphate, realizing the upcoming defeat in the Syrian-Iraqi territories, is attempting to create new fronts in order not to disappoint its fighters and supporters and in this way to maintain its primacy in the global jihad. 

[1] James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, “Statement for the Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, Senate Armed Services Committee”, February 9, 2016, p. 5
[2] Damian Paletta, The Wall Street Journal, “CIA Chief: Islamic State Has Developed 'External Operations Agenda'”, November 16, 2015
[3] The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Press Briefing by Press Secretary Josh Earnest and Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, Brett McGurk”, June 10, 2016