Artificial Intelligence as a Decisive Factor in the Outcome of the US-China Competition
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AS A DETERMINING FACTOR IN THE OUTCOME OF THE US-CHINA COMPETITION
IMPORT
At the end of the first quarter of the 21th century, a new international system has emerged. Its main characteristics are intense fluidity, multipolarity, the revival of competition between the great powers with an ideological character and Cold War style, the presence of new regional powers that claim a role in the redistribution of power and interests, the simultaneous existence of competitive and cooperative relations between states and finally, the establishment of China as one of the most powerful global actors with prospects for primacy in the immediate future.
The presence of a revisionist China is shaking the dominance of the United States, which is on a constant downward trajectory due to structural problems at home and wrong choices/ambiguity of strategic goals in foreign policy. These two countries are on a collision course that stems from the dynamics of the transition of the international system and geopolitical competition and takes place, among others, in the areas of economy and technology. It concerns consumer markets and technological advantages and, in particular, trade rules and standards, investment, employment, exchange rates and intellectual property.
Over time, technology has played a significant role in changing the course of history. Sino-American competition is critical in modern technologies, and in particular in artificial intelligence.[1], creating new conditions for the transformation of the global economic system, military relations and international relations in general. Artificial intelligence is now prioritized as a matter of major interest for national security. The country that will control technological developments faster and more effectively will gain geostrategic and geoeconomic advantage over the other.
Artificial intelligence marks the beginning of the fourth industrial revolution starting in 2010[2]To date, the first two phases of the project have been completed.[3], while the third is estimated to be completed by 2030[4]In the era of the digital world, artificial intelligence is developing and spreading across all fields of human activity, with the main ones concerning the following:
a) Defense and security-Military autonomous weapons, intelligence services (economic, military, internal security), cybersecurity, crime and terrorism management.
b) Energy and environment - Energy utilization, production and distribution, waste management, serving city residents, protection of biodiversity and the environment in general.
c) Transportation-Infrastructure management (ports, airports, inventory flows), public transportation, autonomous car and autonomous transportation.
d) Health and food security - Patient management and monitoring, optimization of diagnoses, treatment of incurable diseases, hospital discharge, personalized medicine, new vaccines and insurance coverage.
e) Financial system-Automation of banking operations (deposits-loans, customer services and customer relationship management).
In this context, more than a dozen governments have announced national AI initiatives. The US and China are the largest countries in the world in terms of investment in this sector.[5]. Each has different ways of approaching artificial intelligence and technology policies in general. The American concept is based on the liberal model, that is, the initiative for the development of artificial intelligence is taken by the large technological giants. According to the American model, the private sector plays an important role in determining the strategic directions regarding the development and priorities in artificial intelligence. China implements an interventionist-centralist policy towards the digital industry and universities dealing with digital technologies, based on the “state-corporation” model.
USA
The US was a pioneer in the development of artificial intelligence and still maintains its supremacy. Its goal is to remain the greatest power. In the context of the information society, companies such as Apple and Microsoft control information on a global scale and own intellectual property rights in all aspects (brands, patents, software and trademarks). Amazon, Google and Facebook emerged at a later stage in digital empires with huge profits. The GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft)[6] have accumulated extremely great power and hold a monopoly position in digital technologies[7].
In the US, the National Economic Council has been operating in the presidential executive office since 1993 with the aim of promoting American economic interests while contributing to maintaining US global dominance. In addition, in 2018, the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence was established with an advisory role to the presidency and Congress. Its purpose is to promote the development of artificial intelligence, machine learning and related technologies to comprehensively address the needs of US national security and defense, in order to ensure that they have the necessary means to maintain global leadership in artificial intelligence. It includes the presidents of Amazon Web Services, Oracle and directors from Microsoft Research Lab and Google Cloud. The government subsidizes digital companies with huge contracts in order to share technological innovations to support state military planning.
Artificial intelligence has been linked to future weapons systems and defense technologies in general. In this context, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is responsible for developing emerging technologies for military use. The agency's Nex initiative is set to spend $2 billion over the next few years to address many of the limitations of artificial intelligence systems.[8]. The report issued by the National Council for Artificial Intelligence highlights the need for a coherent and comprehensive strategy from the federal government to ensure targeted collaboration with the private sector. Investments in research and development can be achieved through $40 billion in funding, finding talented professionals who will be incentivized to be employed from around the world in government positions, establishing a national academy for cyberspace and cyberspace of the Department of Defense with deep training (linked to Space Force) and highly specialized information to the president and the National Security Council. To expand this effort, the White House needs to increase funding for AI research and safety under the new American AI Initiative and ask Congress for additional funds.
During the presidency of Donald Trump, significant initiatives have been taken towards technological superiority. The establishment in 2018 of the Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence, which advises the National Science and Technology Council, established in 1993, is intended to improve the efficiency and productivity of research and development in artificial intelligence by the federal government. In addition, Executive Order 13859 (February 11, 2019)[9] aims to ensure US technological superiority. Research and development funding policy seeks to maintain US advantage in most artificial intelligence fields and activities.
Maintaining American primacy can be achieved by implementing a comprehensive national strategy. A strategy that must synthesize the contradictions between the economic interests of American technology giants and the strategic goals of American authorities for the technological containment of rival countries, mainly China. The United States holds three strategic advantages in maintaining the first position: a) it employs at least half of the world's intelligent personnel in artificial intelligence, b) English as a native language is a global language for science, business and the Internet, and c) American companies are ahead in terms of operating systems (Android and iOS), in creating large artificial intelligence pools, in designing advanced semiconductors and applications that have a catalytic effect on trends and sales (Instagram, YouTube and Facebook).
CHINA
China with the gradual development of its own digital companies Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiomi (BATX)[10] emerged as a major technological power worldwide from 2010 onwards. With the assumption of the presidency under Xi Jinping (March 14, 2013), even greater emphasis was placed on the policy of supporting Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Specifically, in the period 2016-2017, the government made artificial intelligence a cornerstone of its strategy, drawing up the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan. The program is an ambitious undertaking that includes committing funds to all areas of AI technologies and applications by 2020 and achieving major breakthroughs by 2025, with the goal of making China a global leader in AI by 2030. Since its launch in 2017, it has supported programs and investments in research and development by government and private entities. The program is expected to generate $59 billion in the AI economy by 2030.[11].
The Digital Silk Road (DSR), launched in 2015, is a strategic initiative that is part of China's global dominance as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which involves 140 countries. It offers support to Chinese companies to create digital ecosystems in developing African markets based on their own standards in the absence of corresponding American and European ones. By 2016, 16 countries had joined the program, while it is estimated that all 40 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that are part of the BRI will also be technologically connected to China through the DSR, a strategy that is much more than a few infrastructure projects. It is about creating a less US-centric global digital order by promoting a Chinese model where domestic tech giants dominate new markets. It is based on four pillars: a) creating a digital system that is almost entirely domestic, b) enabling China to set standards for next-generation digital infrastructure and technology, such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and the internet, c) the state-paternal nature of Chinese digital governance, and d) gaining access to large local data pools by Chinese businesses and, by extension, Chinese authorities. Investments in digital infrastructure projects related to the DSR amount to $79 billion.
COMPARATIVE DATA
The Chinese leadership pursues an aggressive policy of technonationalism, closely associated with BATX companies under a centrally directed state planning that provides strong incentives for foreign companies wishing to establish themselves in China due to its large market and low production costs in order to promote its technological footprint abroad. China has benefited from at least three economic conditions: a huge domestic market, abundant labor, and a hierarchically authoritarian government that directs technological innovation.
A brief comparative analysis of the digital power of the US and China records the following:[12]:
a) The US leads in four of the six measurable categories: talent, research, development and hardware, while China leads in applications (adoption and data) and controls the global market for new materials and rare earths and metals used in the production of electrical appliances. At the same time, it has surpassed the US in the production of supercomputers.
b) The US has an advantage due to the greater number of start-ups, their financing from equity capital and venture capital, the development of the semiconductor and processor industry, and the high quality of scientific publications compared to China.
c) China leads in almost all sectors of economic activity in the application of artificial intelligence systems and in consumer goods businesses, in the energy sector, in the financial sector, in the technology industry and in telecommunications.
d) The USA holds the first place by far in the growth rate of semiconductor manufacturing companies.
e) The US has the largest percentage of the 20 largest cloud computing data centers in the world.
f) The five largest digital companies-GAFAN (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix) surpass their competitors in the world in terms of market capitalization.
g) China leads in most cited studies in artificial intelligence[13] and patents[14].
h) In the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) fields - which provide the basic skills that contribute to the advancement of science, technology and the rapidly growing sectors of modern economies - China has four times more graduates annually than the US (1.300.000 versus 300.000) and three times more in computer science (185.000 versus 65.000).
COMPETITIVE FIELD
The two countries have been in a constant geoeconomic and geostrategic competition for the past ten years, which began during Barack Obama's second term, evolved and escalated during Donald Trump's presidency, and continues with current President Joe Biden. The race for primacy in artificial intelligence is part of the above conflictual context, forming part of a broader economic war.
The economic warfare tactics that the US is implementing in its attempt to strengthen itself and prevent the emerging China from surpassing it technologically are fiscal, artificial (competition standards and rules), protectionism, economic sanctions, fines on Chinese companies, and measures to combat corruption and unfair tactics.
China implements policies of boosting exports, manipulating the national currency, subsidizing state-owned companies, practices to subsidize Chinese products, and copying trade secrets and intellectual property.
Intellectual property and copyright protection are the primary areas of contention between the two countries. According to research by the American Strategy Group, in the past decade alone, China has stolen nearly $6 trillion in U.S. intellectual property from technological innovations originating in Silicon Valley and Seattle, from the Hollywood entertainment industry, and from medical research and development originating primarily in New England.[15]Another study estimates that intellectual property theft amounts to between $225 billion and $600 billion annually.[16]. Chinese cyber-theft has been described by the Department of Justice as a serious national security threat. China's Ministry of State Security has an extensive intelligence network that conducts industrial espionage for the benefit of Chinese companies. On this basis, the US government closed the Chinese consulate in Los Angeles, accusing it of being involved in intercepting American intellectual property and espionage activities.
Beyond know-how rights, Huawei's 5G mobile internet technological revolution from 2020 is another area of intense conflict between the two countries.[17]. Chinese 5G, because it operates with high-tech base stations, offers, among other things, surveillance, espionage and sabotage services. In addition, the fact that this company is interconnected with the Chinese government is emerging as a top national security issue for the American side, which for this reason is blocking access to this technology not only within its borders but also to other countries.[18]. Huawei's ties to Chinese authorities are a central issue in the two countries' tech war. American businesses are prohibited from using telecommunications equipment from foreign companies without government approval for national security reasons. Executive Order 13873 (May 15, 2019)[19] signed by Donald Trump, the Treasury Department's exclusionary policy for Chinese high-tech companies, and the passage of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)[20] They mainly targeted Huawei and ZTE.
China’s surveillance and censorship technologies are also a point of friction with the US. Digital authoritarianism is a parameter of the Chinese system of governance. Investments in this area enable the implementation of citizen monitoring systems with artificial intelligence technology. These technologies are applied to facial recognition techniques and preventive policing as well as to the management of the internet and social media. They have been applied domestically[21] and have been promoted abroad[22] in illiberal regimes to monitor citizens. Techno-dystopian surveillance aimed at restricting individual liberties and political rights has provoked an American backlash, with the US banning the export of technology used for facial recognition.
The fourth area of the US-China technological conflict is cyberwarfare. Modern digital systems make it possible to destabilize and de-coordinate the defense systems of opponents. Through cyberattacks, telecommunications systems, the energy grid and the financial system can be neutralized, among other things. The US has accused China of using these systems against them, characterizing them as malicious actions. Cyberattacks are also used for information espionage, where data can be retrieved from the digital systems of opponents. The US has warned that in the event of a cyberattack in strategic sectors by an opposing power, it will respond using all conventional military means. The two sides are trying to agree on a framework that should govern cyberspace. The US is the leading power in cyberspace, while China, as an equal competitor, aims to surpass it in the future.
The fifth and final area of competition lies in Fintech, i.e. the computer programs and technologies used for banking and financial services. Digital money heralds a major change in the way the economy works. The applications WeChat Pay (China) and Apple Pay (USA) are the most widespread. China is currently leading by a wide margin with 900.000.000 users compared to just 22.000.000 in the USA. In mobile payments, it is estimated that the Chinese make half of their transactions.
There are two factors that will largely determine the outcome of technological competition.
The first concerns rare earths and rare metals and the second concerns advanced semiconductors. Machines and devices that incorporate artificial intelligence are made from minerals, some of which are rare metals and rare earths. The US and China are the countries with the largest quantities in the world (13.000 and 55.000 tons respectively) with the latter supplying 90% of global demand. Their control plays an important role in competitive advantage. Given that China has the ability to impose export restrictions to harm US technological interests, the latter are redefining their policy to achieve self-sufficiency[23]China lags far behind the US in manufacturing advanced semiconductors, forcing it to import most of its domestic needs.[24]. Taiwan (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) is the largest player worldwide, followed by South Korea (Samsung Electronics) and the US (Intel). China is investing huge amounts in order to reduce the large deficit. Considering that China and the US are interdependent in these sectors, they have been moving towards self-sufficiency policies in recent years as part of the de-globalization process.
The second and most important factor is related to the development and integration of technological innovations in the defense industry. The possibility of a Sino-American military conflict centered on the Taiwan regime and the conflicts in the South China and East China Seas (which concern Chinese claims against US allies-Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines) is a reality for which both sides are preparing. In the event of war, artificial intelligence is able to accelerate decision-making, increase target accuracy and reduce reaction time, decisively judging its outcome. Their strategic defense goal is to control and dominate - through naval and air forces - the China Sea and South Asia, where 1/5 of world trade is traded, reaching as far as the Pacific Ocean. China's defense budget ($146 billion) comes second only to that of the United States ($600 billion).[25]. Evaluating military performance between the two countries, China is almost on par with the US in six out of nine areas of conventional capability with prospects of gaining the advantage in the near future.[26]. The first aims to become the first military power by 2049. Due to the emergence of China, the goal of the American strategy is to maintain its military superiority for as long as possible. Its outcome is inextricably linked to the development of artificial intelligence in defense technologies, which will allow the continuation of the US primacy in the military sector and, by extension, in geostrategic advantage.[27]If China prevails in modern military technologies, it could overturn the US's advantage in conventional means.[28].
CONCLUSIONS
The international system has never before experienced such a rapid tectonic shift in global power as the rise of China. The magnitude of the shift is such that a new balance is in the making. China is rapidly approaching the United States in every significant measure of power (it has already surpassed it in several economic indicators) and, on a rapidly growing trajectory, wants to be recognized as an equal on the international stage, aiming for leadership in its own region. The United States, as a hegemonic power, needs to maintain high rates of economic growth and not allow China to compete with it on equal terms by pursuing a multi-layered containment strategy in order to maintain its primacy.
The current rivalry in the relations between the two countries concerns a rising power that threatens to displace a dominant one, leading to a path of all-out conflict, unless joint actions are taken with difficult mutual compromises to prevent it. Such transitions are rarely addressed peacefully.
The US led China's accession to the World Trade Organization (December 11, 2001) in order to achieve political and economic liberalization with the aim of controlling it through the institutions of the international system that it has built itself. It has used globalization to further strengthen its dominance. China joined the system not to help maintain it but to challenge it from within, in order to write the rules to its advantage. Relying on a dynamic power formed by the complex of authoritarianism, consumerism, global ambitions and technology (ACGT), it is creating its own authoritarian model, shaking up the international order.[29]The opening of the American market to Chinese products a decade ago also brought about the transfer of Western know-how to Beijing. Benefiting from the market economy, it continues to grow at three times the rate of the United States and is at the forefront of practicing geoeconomics to achieve its geopolitical goals.
In the US-China economic war, the latter, although a country of authoritarian capitalism, appears as a champion of liberal globalization, having reaped benefits from this system without fully implementing it. On the contrary, the US, as a historically liberal democracy, is turning towards economic protectionism, with conservative circles mainly embracing liberal nationalism, in order to reverse the weakening due to deindustrialization, the establishment of businesses in foreign countries, the increase in the trade deficit and the explosion of debt.
The conflict that has brought relations between the two countries to a historic low over the past four years is leading to a gradual loosening of their economic ties. The decoupling of the American and Chinese economies in the context of de-globalization signals the redeployment of parts of their production in critical sectors at the national level, including artificial intelligence. At the same time, it means promoting policies to limit the dependence of one country's economy on the other in exports.
There are two schools of thought regarding the global position of the United States. The first advocates preserving its hegemonic role by all means. The United States must be prepared to confront China to the extent that the latter seeks to overturn the existing hierarchy and power relations in the world.[30]. The second school of thought advocates that the US is forced to accept the new reality: the irreversible course of declining American power at all levels and the reverse process of the growth of China, which will become the first regional power. The US will be content with a secondary role, at least in the SE Asia region, losing primacy in certain indicators of power. American hegemony will evolve into American leadership, where the US will maintain the dense network of alliances, continuing to determine developments to a significant extent, but without it being possible to impose decisions unilaterally.
Different working hypotheses are recorded for how the Sino-American rivalry will evolve. The optimistic scenario is that the two countries will accept the strategic logic of a “competitive cooperation” in which they will compete and cooperate at the same time. Despite their fierce rivalry, there are vital interests that both sides need to make mutual compromises and consensus to ensure. The pessimistic scenario predicts that a head-on conflict in all areas, including a military confrontation, will not be avoided, ultimately leading to the “Thucydides trap.”[31] resulting in a zero-sum situation. The increased interconnection and interdependence in the world makes this possibility very dangerous.
In the long-term competition with a horizon of at least a decade, it is expected that the US will maintain the lead in enterprise software, advanced semiconductors, quantum computers and in the employment of approximately 50% of the specialized talented personnel. In contrast, China will rely on the competitive advantage of the largest domestic market that gives unlimited access to quality data and the centrally directed policy to achieve the national goal. Given that the next decade will be the era of the practical application of new technological innovations, the population of 1,4 billion will be the reservoir for the implementation of technological goals.
Whichever country manages to prevail in the field of technology will gain a comparative economic and military advantage over the other. The primacy in the field of artificial intelligence will determine the outcome of their fierce competition, but also global dominance.
Petros Tasios
Internationalist, specializing in American foreign policy
[1] Artificial intelligence is defined as the ability of machines to perform activities, tasks, missions and reproduce the cognitive functions of a human. Artificial intelligence enables machines to “understand” their environment, solve problems and act towards achieving a specific goal. Artificial intelligence technologies include, among others, machine learning, deep learning through neural networks (deep learning), computer vision, smart robotics, semantic technologies, the Internet of Things (IoT) and natural language software.
[2] The convergence of three scientific trends: big data, machine learning, and deep learning through neural networks, combined with the enhancement of the high-performance computing power of modern computers, contributed to the development of artificial intelligence technologies.
[3] The first phase concerns the development of software that implements algorithms created by humans. The second phase, which began in 2012, is related to the development of deep learning techniques through neural networks. Deep learning is based on increased computing power and access to large volumes of data. It uses structures inspired by certain functions of the human brain that derive their learning from experience and feedback.
[4] By 2030, it is estimated that artificial intelligence will have penetrated to an even greater extent into various sectors of human activity, having an impact on states, economies, societies, international relations and the environment.
[5] The United States and China invest 3,1% and 2,2% of their GDP respectively in technological research and development. It is estimated that 70% of the $15,7 trillion that will accumulate in the global economy by 2030 from artificial intelligence will come from these two countries. Also, of the 4.500 companies active in the sector, half and one-third are based in the United States and China, respectively, Ali Crawford and Dakota Cary, “To Compete With China, America Must Compete With Itself,” The National Interest, March 26, 2022, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/techland-when-great-power-competition-meets-digital-world/compete-china-america-must-compete.
[6] Otherwise known as FAANGS (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google).
[7] In online advertising services, the share is Google-31,1%, Facebook-20,2%, Amazon-4,2% and the rest 44,5%. In the cloud infrastructure sector, the global market is divided into Amazon-33%, Microsoft-18%, Google-9%, Alibaba-6%, IBM-5%, SalesForce-2%, Tencent-2%, Oracle-2%.
In the field of smartphone production, whose value exceeds 400 billion euros, Apple controls 57% of the global market. In the exploitation of mobile applications, Android holds 72,9% of the global market and Apple 26,5%. Finally, Google maintains a monopoly position in terms of search engines as it dominates with 92,7% worldwide.
Panagiotis Roumeliotis, Rupture. The war of artificial intelligence, Livani Publications, Athens 2020, pp. 252-255.
[8] Paul Scharre, “Deadly Applications. The Real Dangers of an Artificial Intelligence Arms Race,” Foreign Affairs The Hellenic Edition, February-March 2020, issue 62.
[9] Executive Order on Promoting the Use of Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence in the Federal Government,
[10] Otherwise, BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent).
[11] Ben Scott, Stefan Heumann and Philippe Lorenz, “Artificial Intelligence and Foreign Policy”, Stiftung Neue Verantwortung, 15 January 2018, https://www.stiftung-nv.de/de/publikation/artificial-intelligence-and-foreign-policy.
[12] Panagiotis Roumeliotis, Rupture. The war of artificial intelligence, ibid., pp. 234-245.
[13] Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt, "Is China beating the US to AI Supremacy?", Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, 2020, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/china-beating-us-ai-supremacy.
[14] Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt, "Is China beating the US to AI Supremacy?", op.
[15] Leonidas Aposkitis, “America’s ‘Great Goddess’ and the Great Restart”, Hellenic Nexus, December 2020, Issue 161.
[16] Lesley Stahl, “The Great Brain Robbery,” 60 Minutes transcript, CBS News, January 17, 2016, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-great-brain-robbery-china-cyber-espionage/.
[17] Huawei is the largest supplier of telecommunications equipment, holding 28% of the global market, with its two main competitors (Nokia and Ericsson) having the same percentage combined. Two of the four companies developing 5G technology are Chinese with no American representation.
[18] Australia, New Zealand and Canada have all aligned themselves with the US, while Germany, France and the UK are seeking to limit future deployment of 5G technology in their networks due to concerns about cybersecurity breaches and Huawei's links to Chinese authorities. However, countries across much of Africa, South America and Southeast Asia have allowed the technology as the economic benefits outweigh the security concerns.
[19] The White House, Executive Order on Securing the Information and Communications Technology and Services Supply Chain, https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-securing-information-communications-technology-services-supply-chain/.
[20] The law prohibits US government agencies and US businesses that do business with the US government from purchasing equipment and services from Chinese telecommunications and digital technology companies. Its basis is that Huawei and ZTE pose a risk to the US armed forces, https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/1790.
[21] The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been implementing the Social Credit Control System since 2014 to monitor citizens’ behavior and use it to grant benefits or limit privileges. The system is based on facial recognition technology and big data analysis and is powered by artificial intelligence algorithms. At the same time, the surveillance technology is used to suppress the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang province and to track and prosecute protesters in Hong Kong.
[22] Surveillance systems, including AI-powered facial recognition technology, have been procured by countries such as Ecuador, Iran, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. Authoritarian regimes in Egypt, Ethiopia, Zambia, and Uganda also use technological surveillance to restrict access to information, limit freedom of expression, and suppress opposition.
[23] Large American technology companies (Qualcomm, Apple, IBM and others) are being forced to move their production to China due to their dependence on the rare metals it has.
[24] Rhett Hatch, “Why China's Semiconductor Industry Remains Behind,” The National Interest, 31 Jan. 2022, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-china%E2%80%99s-semiconductor-industry-remains-behind-200143.
[25] Graham Allison, On a Warpath. Can the US and China Avoid the Thucydides Trap? Pedio Publications, Athens 2020, p. 49.
[26] Graham Allison, On the Path to War. Can the US and China Avoid the Thucydides Trap?, op. cit., p. 49.
[27] The US, in addition to the programs it has developed for the development of artificial intelligence in both the economic and military sectors, spends $20 billion annually through the Defense Advanced Research Agency in order to forestall any strategic developments by opposing forces. At the same time, the US federal government spends and subsidizes significant amounts of money to American high-tech companies (GAFAM) for the development of dual-use artificial intelligence (economic and military) such as virtual reality, satellite imaging, autonomous robotics, drones and the management of nanotechnologies.
[28] China, as part of its goal to become a leader in artificial intelligence by 2030, is developing synergies between the state and private technology companies (BATX) to develop artificial intelligence for military use. It follows the model of military-political fusion, which means that Chinese technological innovations will be more easily translated into military benefits.
Paul Scharre, “Deadly Applications. The Real Dangers of an Artificial Intelligence Arms Race,” Foreign Affairs The Hellenic Edition, February-March 2020, issue 62.
[29] Rana Mitter, “The World China Wants. How Power Will—and Will Not—Reshape Chinese Ambitions,” Foreign Affairs The Hellenic Edition, August-September 2021, issue 71.
[30] In this context, the scenarios include: a) the continuation of the economic war with the ultimate goal of China signing an agreement whose terms will ensure the commercial, financial, military and technological status quo to the benefit of the US, b) the limitation of China's upward trajectory through an expanded war in all sectors, cutting it off not only from the American market but also from that of its allies and c) the US counterattack with its own ambitious plan against Chinese global aspirations as expressed in One Belt One Road, the claim of the maritime zones of SE Asia and its emergence as the leading digital power in the world.
[31] The “Thucydides Trap” is a term coined by Graham Allison to illustrate Thucydides’ insight. According to him, when a rising power threatens to displace another dominant one, war is the most likely outcome. The cause of the Peloponnesian War was Athens, which as an emerging power threatened the hegemonic Sparta. Today, rising China is on a collision course with the United States. Understanding this development is done in the light of this specific term.
Graham Allison, On the Path to War. Can the US and China Avoid the Thucydides Trap?, op.