2014-06-12, Large-scale geopolitical upheaval leads to unpredictable developments
The day before yesterday's capture of Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, with a population of two million and the center of huge oil fields, by the fighters of the organization "Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant" (formerly Al-Qaeda in Iraq), left global public opinion and the powerful decision-making centers of the West speechless. The shock occupation of Mosul was followed by the occupation of Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein, and the Baiji refineries, the largest in Iraq.
For months now, areas of the provinces of Kirkuk and Salaheddin have been under the control of extremist Islamists,Fallujahas well as areas province of al-Anbar. At the same time, fighting is raging between Iraqi state security forces and Islamists in further southern areas.
The government of Nouri al-Maliki has proven completely incapable of halting the medieval-style advance of "jihad" fighters, who seek to transform Iraq into an Islamic theocratic state.
The crisis was complicated by the capture of 80 Turkish nationals, including the Turkish consul in Mosul, which led to an emergency meeting of NATO, at the request of Turkey, and Davutoglu's threat of retaliation.
The (now real) prospect of an extremist organization breaking away from Al-Qaeda gaining a territorial base is radically changing the situation in the Middle East. The Islamists have heavy weapons, a response to public opinion, a constant influx of volunteers and determination. They consider their death in battle a small detail in front of their common goal. It is certain that they will attempt to advance on Baghdad and revive the medieval caliphate.
The acquisition of even a limited territorial base will enable them to become a global reference point for their like-minded people, to establish an operational center and to acquire a point of departure in all directions. Most importantly, it will awaken primordial memories in the Muslim world and give a realistic dimension to its ambitions.
Of course, there are serious rivals. Turkey aspires to play the role of leader of Muslims everywhere. Shiite Iran will not easily allow the establishment of a rival Islamic state?y regime in its soft underbelly. Saudi Arabia will be politically destabilized by a political-religious radicalization of the of its population. Of course, the greatest threat is felt by Israel, which is now surrounded by fanatical Islamic regimes.
The possibility of American involvement is also seriously increasing. Obama has already made every possible military option available to al-Maliki. aid.
But all this, ultimately, leads to an exacerbation of the global polarization between the Western world and Islam. A Western involvement will further enrage Muslims, from burning Pakistan to the Muslim neighborhoods of European cities, from where they are fleeing, as volunteers of the Islamic holy war, unassimilated Muslims with European passports.
In the event that the West "assigns" Turkey to clear the landscape of northern Iraq, it will undoubtedly cause a general conflagration in the Near and Middle East. In any case, this development is extremely dangerous.
