Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies-One omen is best, to fight for one's country Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies-One omen is best, to fight for one's country
Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies-One omen is best, to fight for one's country
Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Blog

Georgia Christina Tsaousi, ELISME Analyst: The Russian factor in the Balkans,

Georgia Christina Tsaousi, ELISME Analyst: The Russian factor in the Balkans,

Super User
October 19 2018
Non-Member Views
0
Soft power is the ability of a country to persuade others to do what it wants without the use of force or coercion. Serbia has been Russia's main ally in the Balkans for centuries. Through soft power strategies, Moscow has maintained its presence in the region through diplomacy, energy deals, and trade. In 2014, the Russian network Sputnik gained its own place in the Serbian media.

British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Council President Donald Tusk have expressed concern about the Kremlin's growing influence in the region. Russia's ultimate goal is to destabilize the region and undermine the integration of Balkan countries into the European Union. Surveys show that the Serbian population wants to join the EU by 50,9% while 67,2% want an alliance with Russia. Today, the Russian station also broadcasts to other Balkan countries such as Montenegro and Republika Srpska (Serbian Republic of Bosnia), which is a semi-autonomous region of Bosnia.

With the withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union, gaps are being created that the Russians are artfully seeking to exploit to their advantage. For this reason, the EU has structured strong measures for pre-accession countries, such as Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro and FYROM. Particularly in the case of FYROM, Russia has made it clear that it is opposed to the country's accession to NATO, as well as to the accession of the Western Balkans in general to the European Union. The result of the "failed referendum" in Skopje, as Moscow characterized it, is a victory for the latter against the West. The appropriate conditions are therefore being created for the further destabilization of the region, to the benefit of Russian expansion.

Four years ago, in 2014, Russia blatantly forced Ukraine to leave the European Union, which led to strong popular discontent, resulting in the annexation of Crimea by the Russians using military force. Today, Ukraine declares itself a pro-European country while simultaneously seeking its ecclesiastical emancipation from Moscow.
Russia has focused on the Western Balkans and despite its declarations of friendship and solidarity with them, the absence of the economic factor is noticeable. Trade with the region in question has decreased significantly. In 2016, trade with Serbia (an ally of Russia) was at a rate of 6,7%, while Serbia's trade with the EU during the same period reached 64,4%. Through the energy game, Russia is trying to penetrate the Balkans with the Turkish Stream pipeline, while the plans for the implementation of the South Stream pipeline collapsed in 2014. The fact that Western Balkan countries may join NATO and strengthen American dominance is the main factor shaping Russian foreign policy.
The Balkans, due to their strategic location, have always been a bone of contention between the West and Russia. The outcome will certainly depend on the determination of the actors but also on the priority given to persistent unresolved issues in the Balkans.

sources
• http://www.kathimerini.gr/958559/article/epikairothta/kosmos/ta-valkania-h-ee-kai-to-paixnidi-ths-rwsias 
• http://www.kathimerini.gr/988513/opinion/epikairothta/politikh/ti-epidiwkei-h-rwsia-sthn-pgdm 
• https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2004-05-01/soft-power-means-success-world-politics 
• https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/10/western-balkans-backsliding-on-democracy-says-lords-committee 
• https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/russias-geopolitical-interests-balkans 
• http://www.foreignaffairs.gr/articles/71106/edward-p-joseph-kai-sinisa-vukovic/to-stoixima-toy-mayroboynioy-sto-nato 
• http://bankingnews.gr/index.php?id=298172 
• http://www.capital.gr/carnegieeurope-eu/3252493/oi-taktikes-tis-rosias-sta-dutika-balkania