George Lykokapis*: The US-Turkey ceasefire is temporary
The release of American pastor Brunson came at the right time for Donald Trump. The American president has a strong communication "card" for the upcoming congressional elections. He can now count on the votes of the Christian right and the rallying of his electoral base. The big question is whether there were any trade-offs from the US side in Turkey. Washington denied this rumor in a strong tone.
US Secretary of State Pompeo contacted his Turkish counterpart, requesting the release of "of all American citizens" who are being held in Turkey. However, it seems more like Mike Pompeo is playing the role of the "bad cop". This is because his political boss moved on a different wavelength. The American president publicly thanked his Turkish counterpart. He stated that now Washington-Ankara relations will be "good to excellent". For the first time, he left open the possibility of lifting the economic sanctions he imposed on Turkey in the summer.
The sanctions were a sign of Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with Tayyip Erdogan's "ungrateful" attitude. Ungrateful because the American president himself had previously mediated with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to release Ebru Ozkan from Israeli prisons. Turkala was being held by the Israelis for her ties to Hamas.
But Turkey did not make a corresponding gesture of goodwill at that time. It continued to hold the pastor in prison, demanding additional compensation for the high-profile Zarrab case. Since last August, the intense confrontation between Washington and Ankara began. A confrontation that did not lead to a complete rupture.
US-Turkey differences remain
The Turkish president did not demand the withdrawal of the Americans from the Incirlik base. For his part, Donald Trump, especially recently, has been diligently avoiding rhetorical attacks against the Turkish government. For example, in his recent speech to the UN, he appeared to be a scoundrel. However, he did not say anything about Turkey, despite the major differences between Washington and Ankara.
These differences are not limited to the pastor's detention. Ankara has chosen to ally itself with Moscow and Tehran on a number of issues. Ankara's intention to purchase state-of-the-art Russian S-400 missiles has angered the US government. We will only see a dramatic improvement in relations between the two countries if Erdogan gets back on the US bandwagon.
This possibility seems unlikely to happen. It is known that the strongman of Turkey is suspicious of Washington's intentions. The Turkish president believes that the Americans instigated the failed coup attempt of 2016. He also sees the US as supporting the Kurdish "terrorists" of the YPG. He released the pastor in a gesture of goodwill in order to buy political time.
Tayyip Erdogan's advantage is that no united front has been formed in the West against Turkey. On the issue of Iran, Europeans are more in agreement with Turkey than with the US. Regarding his relations with Russia, Erdogan can claim that his position is no different from other European governments. Germany and Austria have excellent relations with the Russians, while the Italian government seeks the same. Tayyip Erdogan knows that as long as the refugee issue exists, the Europeans will avoid an open confrontation with him.
Additional "headache" for the US
The mysterious "disappearance" of Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul complicates the situation. It is obvious that the Saudi journalist was tortured and murdered inside the consulate by Riyadh's secret services. The Turks suggest that they have video footage of Khashoggi's brutal torture and murder.
Khashoggi was a contributor to the Washington Post and the American media is very interested in the case. For the first time, the imposition of American sanctions on Saudi Arabia is being discussed as a scenario. The American president ruled out the possibility of stopping arms sales to the wealthy kingdom, so as not to risk the "American jobs"in the military industry. But he seemed open to "other kinds" of sanctions, which he did not clarify.
With his practices, the Saudi king has put his "good friend" Trump in a difficult position. Tayyip Erdogan is the winner of this high-profile case, because he exposes the most loyal ally of the US in the eyes of the international community. This is perhaps another reason that explains the release of the pastor. It does not seem accidental that Turkey spoke in a strong tone about the "rule of law" and the "independence of Turkish justice."
Is Mattis the new Tillerson?
Donald Trump does not have the luxury of a rupture with Turkey, at least not for the time being. It is known that many within the US government, especially in the Pentagon, seek bridges with Ankara. However, it is worth noting that for the first time Donald Trump expressed his public dissatisfaction with James Mattis, the "chosen one" of the military establishment.
The US president criticized the powerful Secretary of Defense for "his support for NATO". We would also add about his continued support for Turkey. James Mattis is one of the strong supporters of the delivery of the F35 to Ankara. Until recently he was considered irreplaceable, but not anymore.
He is said to have used disparaging descriptions of Trump in a meeting, like Rex Tillerson in the past. The American media is now openly talking about the scenario of his dismissal. In this case, US relations with NATO will be tested. Therefore, inevitably, the same will happen with US-Turkey relations.
SOURCE: https://slpress.gr/diethni/prosorini-i-ekecheiria-ipa-toyrkias/