Blog

The deconstruction of a global system

Alexis Papachelas

What is happening in the Persian Gulf is extremely dangerous. Not only for the obvious reasons. But because the development of the war shows that basic doctrines and decision-making mechanisms have collapsed. What the goal of the operation is changes from hour to hour, whether it is regime change, the complete weakening of Iran or something else. Meanwhile, the Gulf countries are seeing their own “narrative” collapse, as they no longer resemble the “Switzerland or Las Vegas of the Middle East”. Israel is keeping its distance from the US, which it itself dragged into this adventure, and Lebanon is falling apart. One moment it is announced that the US Navy is already escorting some tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the next it is denied.

If the consequences were limited to the region, we would say okay, it's another crisis and it will pass. Americans would remember that History does not joke, but takes revenge on these regions, they would pack up and go to the next crisis.

Even if behind everything we experience there is a grand American strategic goal, the consequences of grand strategy will be felt by all of us, now and for a long time to come.

But here, a global system is being dismantled – energy, geopolitical, economic. It is as if some invisible hand is constantly pressing the planet to see how much it can withstand, how much we can all withstand. The coronavirus initially disrupted globalization and transportation networks, Ukraine turned energy and inflation upside down, “Trump II” shocked us with tariffs, and now the war in Iran is sending the planet into the “reds.” With Trump feeling his hitherto unlimited military power, the only hope is that realists, like Secretary of State Rubio and the “adults” who made a difference in “Trump I,” will at some point take the upper hand in the Oval Office. However, the markets and the wallet of the average American have already felt the shock and are showing the need to return to a relative normality. But is this expectation realistic? I don’t think so. Tomorrow's normality will in no way be a mild mutation of yesterday's.

We are all trying to find out if there is some wise strategy behind everything we are experiencing. One could, for example, say that Trump responded to the Chinese embargo on rare earths with successive attacks on Iran and Venezuela, which provided cheap oil to Beijing. It will be seen at the Trump-Xi summit at the end of the month. In the meantime, however, even if there really is such a grand strategic goal, the consequences of the grand strategy will be felt by all of us, now and for a long time to come.

https://www.kathimerini.gr/opinion/564125602/i-apodomisi-enos-pagkosmioy-systimatos/