Ioannis Baltzoi: Idlib, the Apple of the Hesperides in Syria. Where everything will be judged for everyone.
The final episode in the great massacre in Syria will take place in the province of Idlib. That is where the eyes of the world are focused on what is about to happen. The province of Idlib in Syria is the last place of Syria which is still controlled by the remnants of the extremist Islamist organizations defeated in the rest of Syria and Iraq, the still unrepentant fanatical Islamists. And this is because by a strange coincidence today, in Idlib is the ultimate focus of the geostrategic pursuits of all the powers directly or indirectly involved in this strange part of Syria, namely the US, Russia, Iran, Turkey, France, England, Israel and of course the legitimate owner. of the region, of Syria and the Syrian people. 
What is Idlib?
Η Idlib is located in northwestern Syria. It borders Hama to the south and southwest, Aleppo to the east, Latakia to the northwest, and Turkey to the north. It has an area of 6.097 square kilometers. kilometers and population 1.464.000 inhabitants (2010) that is before the war in Syria. The capital of the province is the homonymous city of Idlib. Today in Idlib we do not know the exact number of inhabitants, since many have left and others have come from other areas of Syria, mainly pro-Islamists. However, some sources raise the number of inhabitants today in Idlib, over two million, with many civilians, women and the elderly. Idlib is not controlled by a single Islamist organization, but from many organizations and groups, about 40-45, according to the Russian negotiator for Syria Vasily Nebenzia, who in several cases are in conflict and confrontation with each other. According to Nebenzia, the number of jihadists is over 50.000, although many put it as high as 70.000. (1)
The strongest force in Idlib is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist alliance directly linked to with al-Qaeda and has been designated a terrorist organization by the United Nations. This organization controls strategic positions across Idlib, including its capital and the Bab al-Hawa crossing leading to Turkey. It has a significant fighting force at least 10.000 jihadists, many of whom of them are from foreign countries. The second strongest force is considered to be the "National Liberation Front", which is supported by the Turks and consists of various Islamist-jihadist groups. It is considered a tough organization and It includes hardline jihadists from the Ahrar al-Sham organization and the Nour al-Din al-Zinki Brigades, as well as fighters affiliated with the "Free Syrian Army", the original resistance organization and US hope to overthrow Assad, which turned out to be a great disappointment.
Its importance
Its importance area, It is very large, as it borders Turkey, while major highways pass through it, leading from Aleppo to Hama and Damascus and west to Latakia. The Assad is obliged to liberate the last part of his country from the foreign jihadists and has declared it, as well as his allies Russia and Iran who agree and will assist with military means, as the Russians are already doing with air strikes. If Idlib falls, which is very likely, the war ends definitively and irrevocably, with a crushing defeat of the jihadists and the Islamic State and great winners, Syria, which regains its territory, personally President Assad, who achieved what seemed impossible a few years ago, and Russia and Iran with a magnificent projection of their power in the region. We should include in the club of winners the Syrian Kurds, who gain in the first stage, broad autonomy and sovereignty in many areas in Northern and Eastern Syria, with the assumption of the creation of a Kurdish state entity in the future. The big losers are the organizers of this crime against the Syrian people and those who tried to exploit this war for their own geostrategic pursuits. And I am referring primarily to the USA, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and secondarily France, England and Israel.
The main stakeholders
A. USA.
Five months ago, President Trump announced the withdrawal of Americans from Syria, leaving instead, their allies, such as the Kurds, Israel and to a certain extent Turkey, before Sultan Erdogan went berserk and declared a holy war against the United States. In fact, the US and Russia had agreed to end the war, using their proxies in the region. But President Trump failed, as he clashes internally with the self-proclaimed "stable state" (according to an anonymous New York Times editorial), which continues the incredible aggressive strategy of Rumsfeld-Navyarch Zebrowski, for the destruction of states and the appropriation (grabbing) of their natural resources (2), which even the US president cannot control and change. So the new US plan seems to be the following:
Stage 1. Preservation of NE Syria (Idlib, Afrin, Jarablus regions) under occupation!
Stage 2. ????? At the moment there is no clear policy of action by the Americans. The only thing mentioned is the US warning to the Syrian Arab Army not to use Chemical Weapons, because the US will strike. Along with them are France and England and, for the first time, Germany, which will participate in strikes against Syria.
Stage 3. Iran leaves Syria and the Assad regime falls!! (3)
As can be seen from current developments, this plan is probably failing and will not succeed. So all that remains is the threat of military action against Syria if chemical weapons are used in Idlib. And as the US representative to the UN stated ambassador Haley: "If chemicals are dropped on Idlib, we know who will drop them," meaning the Syrian army!! Such undisguised certainty about the culprit, which is being foreshadowed!
B. Turkey
Η Sultan Erdogan's Turkey dreams of neo-Ottoman grandeur and visions guided by the realization of the promise of its founder, Mustafa Kemal, namely the "National Oath" (Misak-ı Milli) and the ambitious idea of political Islam. National Vision ( Milli Gorus) of his mentor Erbakan.(3) He has occupied the Jarablus region in Northern Syria, the Kurdish canton of Afrin and has complete control of the province of Idlib, with 12 heavy observation posts-Outposts. and 7.000 soldiers and agents. If Idlib is lost, Turkey's policy is also lost, since it is impossible to hold the two areas it has occupied and of course it completely loses the game in Syria. and will suffer new defeats and dangerous developments with the Kurdish issue.
C. England and France.
England and France renew their colonial policy, as expressed during the fall of the Ottoman Empire and the division of the Middle East with the Sykes-Picot agreements, a monster-creation of their own, responsible for much suffering in the Middle East. And they want to return to the scene of their crime again. And Idlib is their last chance to intervene in the region on the occasion of the chemicals that Assad will drop in the future!!!
D. Israel.
Israel, surrounded by hostile Arab states, is gripped by the fear of its own disappearance. Thus, it implements its established policy of dividing its large neighbors, so that they become weak. It supported the fragmentation of Syria, but this prospect did not materialize. Its second goal is to remove its great enemy Iran from its backyard, where it has settled, since Iran has established military bases a few dozen kilometers from its Northern borders. In this case, Russia guaranteed the removal of Iranian bases away from Israel's Northern borders. As for Idlib, Israel is not directly interested, as long as Iran does not participate.
E. Russia
The big winner of the war in Syria is Russia, which, with its intervention, went from a small naval supply base in Tartus to in Syria it became the factor of victory and a great projection of power, which it never had. It has a large naval base and a very large air base, as well as other smaller ones. It agrees with the operations against Idlib, to eliminate the jihadists and liberate the area and even came into conflict with Erdogan's "ally", recently in the trilateral meeting in Tehran. There are many reasons. The area west of the Euphrates belongs to Russia's influence, according to a US-Russia agreement. So it does not want to have a huge hornet's nest in its area of influence 50.000 well-equipped jihadists, a source of constant danger. Look at the map where Idlib is located and below this area, at a distance of a few dozen kilometers, are their two major bases, so they will never allow this major source of danger to exist.
Bassel Assad Air Base and the port of Tartus. Russia's two most important military bases in Syria are located near Iblib. Regarding the possible use of chemicals, he denounces the US and the West for preparing provocations to strike Syria and thwart the retake of Idlib, as has been decided (Russia, Syria, Iran) and that Russia will participate. (5 )
Bassel Assad Air Base and the port of Tartus. Russia's two most important military bases in Syria are located near Iblib. Regarding the possible use of chemicals, he denounces the US and the West for preparing provocations to strike Syria and thwart the retake of Idlib, as has been decided (Russia, Syria, Iran) and that Russia will participate. (5 )
St. Iran.
Iran, a long-standing ally of Syria, achieved what it sought. It succeeded in implementing finally the famous Shiite axis Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut, completing its long-standing geostrategic aspirations and of course it is not going to abandon what it was seeking. Let alone having reached the court of Israel, its greatest enemy.
The situation in Syria today.
Epilogue.
The decisions have already been made by the victors and the offensive to liberate Idlib from the extremist Islamist organizations and the 50.000 well-equipped jihadists who have accumulated there with the care of the US and especially Turkey, for which preparatory actions with air strikes have already begun. The Syrian government and President Assad have duty-bound to liberate the last occupied part of Syrian territory from jihadist and terrorist organizations that have accumulated there. The issue that concerns the West is whether we have a leak of jihadists into Europe and around the world thirsty for revenge and an increase in terrorist attacks. strikes. So the effort will be to neutralize them and disarm them, so that they do not constitute future dangers. The question is what do we do with them. There is a proposal to keep most of the population in Idlib, since apart from the jihadists, in the province are their families, as well as many sympathetic Islamist Syrians from other regions, who followed the jihadists to Idlib and remain, but by "sealing" the area in a Gaza-style form or with a broad and strictly surveillance, to prevent the movement of people, weapons, ammunition and of course extremist ideologies, of course under the control of the Syrian government and obviously the UN, as in Bosnia, Cyprus, etc. The operations may begin whenever the time is deemed most appropriate and agreed upon by Syria, Russia and Iran. Probably after this year's 72η UN General Assembly, which will take place on Tuesday, September 19, 2018. Erdogan was met with a stern and rather insulting response. Putin's categorical no to his proposal for a peace agreement between Syria and Idlib jihadists, at the recent Tehran meeting. Finally, let us point out the propaganda that we will suffer from all the Western media during the operations for liberation, we emphasize the liberation of Idlib, from the terrorist beheaders, with the well-known method implemented by the suspicious and well-known for the fake videos NGO, called "White Helmets" and closely cooperating with the jihadists. You will see in a replay of horror scenes, of children, who have been killed or are being rescued from the ruins of houses that the bad guys bombed in this case Russia and Syria. See who this organization is in an older article by the undersigned in the newspaper Parapolitika(6). And I consider the dropping of chemicals (probably chlorine) on a village in Idlib, with victims, you guessed it right again, little children from the bad guys we mentioned above and let Russia shout from now on that a provocation is being planned, the scenes are already being filmed in Jisr al-Shughur(!!!!), according to an announcement by the Russian Ministry of Defense and let Syria shout that it has handed over its entire chemical arsenal to the international community for four years. As for the logical question (About Bond=who benefits), why would the Syrian army drop chemical weapons? Since he is the victor and liberator, no one bothers to answer. Because the war in Syria has no logic, only interests.
* Ioannis Athan. Baltzoi is a Lieutenant General (ret.), former Defense Attaché in Tel Aviv, former ECMM Operations Officer in the Bosnian War, a graduate of the Tactical Intelligence School (US Army), with a Master's Degree (M.Sc.) in Geopolitical Analysis, Geostrategic Synthesis and Defense and International Law Studies from the National Kapodistrian University of Athens, member of the Board of Directors of the Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies.
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