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On Sunday, June 24, 2018, Turkey will hold its sixth election in four years and arguably its most important, with simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections. Turks will essentially be choosing between the supremacy of a single man based on Islamic political ideology and stance (Political Islam) and a return to a political system based on the separation of legislative, executive and judicial powers.

Turkey's Islamist president and ideologically committed Muslim Brotherhood member Recep Tayyip Erdogan has an impressive record. He has not lost a single election in Turkey since 2002, when his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the election and came to power. Turks will now go to the polls for the sixth time in four years, in what is arguably the biggest challenge yet for a politician who has remained unchallenged for the past 16 years.

The Election Schedule

In the referendum of 16^th In April 2017, Turks voted (albeit narrowly and with serious suspicions of fraud) in favor of constitutional amendments that gave the country’s president, who will henceforth be elected, almost unlimited powers without effective checks and balances. With these changes, the Turkish president will be head of state, head of government, and head of the ruling party, all at the same time. The elections were scheduled for November 2019, but Erdogan decided to call early elections, probably fearing the consequences of the poor performance of the Turkish economy, as well as to take advantage of his military successes in Syria. Waiting until November 2019 carries the risk of the economic situation getting completely out of control, which would be disastrous for the Turkish president and his party.

The Candidates.

Erdogan and his AKP have allied themselves with an extreme nationalist party (the Nationalist Movement for Remembrance, or MHP), also known as the Grey Wolves of the dangerous Bervet Bahçeli, and a nationalist-conservative party (the Grand Unity Party, or GUP), hoping to form a stable right-wing bloc in an increasingly nationalist society. This coalition is known as the Peoples' Alliance.

The opposition, led by the Republican People's Party (CHP), quickly formed a rival coalition, the Nation Alliance. This brings together a center-right newcomer (the IYI Party or Good Party) and a conservative party, the Happiness Party (SP). Also participating are the Greater Turkey Party (BTP), the Greater Union Party (BBP), the Democratic Party (DP) and the Patriotic Party (VP).

The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) has not joined any alliance. So the elections will see competition between three blocs: The people, the nation and the Kurds.

An unfair confrontation

The ruling bloc is using rich state resources for its campaign. It has announced many investment incentives, tax breaks, subsidies, major projects and new jobs to attract votes. Operation Olive Branch, with the invasion on January 20, 2018 and the eventual capture of the Kurdish canton of Afrin in northwestern Syria after two months, is expected to bring additional votes to the government, as opinion polls showed that almost 85% of Turks supported the military operation against Afrin. Erdogan's government systematically uses mass propaganda mechanisms, as it controls almost 90% of the media. For example, the state broadcaster TRT allocated 117 minutes to Erdogan's campaign, compared to just 16 minutes for the campaign of his main presidential opponent, Muharrem Ince.

The downside is Turkey’s economic slump, with the lira depreciating more than 17% since the start of the year through the end of May amid concerns about the central bank’s inability to contain double-digit inflation. According to polling firm Remres, a recent poll found 67,8% of Turks expect the economy to be in worse shape going forward. As the opposition fears, none of this will matter if there is electoral fraud on June 24. Besides, as European observers have also argued in the 2017 referendum, approximately 2,5 million votes may have been rigged in the April 2017 referendum. However, Remres found that 60,8% of Turks believe that the 2018 election will not be a fair election.

Who are the Candidates?

Five candidates will compete against President Erdoğan in the first (and perhaps only) round of the June 24 elections. They are: Muharrem Inceh of the Republican People's Party (CHP), Meral Akşener of the Good Party (IYI), Temel Karamolağlu of the Happiness Party (SP), Selahattin Demirtas of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) (Kurdish) and Doğu Pericek of the left-wing nationalist patriotic party (Vatan Partisi). The winner, and therefore the president, will be the one who wins 50% plus one vote. Most polls estimate that Erdoğan will not win in the first round. They estimate that the first round ranking will be in this order: Erdoğan, Inceh, Akşener and Demirtas. If this happens, Erdogan will face Ince in the second round, with the IYI and the SP likely uniting behind the common opposition candidate. Thus, Demirtaş and Turkey’s Kurds become the literal governing factor for the presidential election in Turkey. This would make Demirtaş’s Kurdish voters the real “wild card” of the election. In other words, the Kurdish vote will determine Turkey’s next president.

Turkish Election Scenarios

There are four scenarios for the elections:

A. Erdogan wins the presidency and the AKP wins a parliamentary majority

B. Erdogan wins, but AKP loses parliamentary majority

C. Erdogan loses the presidency, but his AKP gains a parliamentary majority

D. Erdogan and the AKP and MHP are losing.

The fourth possibility is the least likely to happen, and some analysts consider the third as possibly possible. Thus, it is estimated that the election results will be either the first or the second possibility. If the fourth possibility materializes, however, then it is expected that Turkey will go through a painful period of regime change, with street violence and a near-civil war emerging as the potential danger in a dangerously polarized society. Erdogan’s supporters, who often gather in violent groups, would not believe that the vote count was fair (even if it was) and would take to the streets to confront the “traitors” who dared to turn against their “great leader.”

The first option would simply mean the usual practice we have become accustomed to in recent years. Turkey would slide into a one-man Islamist system and the nation – now polarized along secular and conservative lines – would become completely unmanageable. The second option is perhaps the more interesting: It would not please Erdogan, of course, and could tie his hands to a significant extent. Theoretically, Erdogan could rule by decree, but an opposition-controlled parliament could always pass laws overturning his decrees (as the constitution states). Erdogan would then be forced to dissolve parliament and call early elections within at least 90 days. Turks could find themselves in elections again as early as 2018.

The “Gaza factor”

The problems in Gaza and generally any conflict between Palestinians or other Arabs and Israelis, such as the Israel-Lebanon war in 2006, have always benefited Erdogan, who appears to be the anti-Zionist Muslim who seeks to become the leader of the Muslim world in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa). Erdogan is always the Muslim leader who first starts shooting at Israel whenever the Arab-Israeli conflict transforms violently.

Erdogan has extensively exploited the pro-Palestinian sentiment of the Turks and turned it into votes. It took the opposition more than a decade to discover Erdogan’s “Palestinian ammunition.” Once again, as in 2014, he exploited the tragic events in Gaza and the deaths of at least 60 Palestinians and rushed to proclaim to all Arabs about “our Muslim brothers who are dying from Jewish bullets,” ahead of the Turkish presidential elections. As for Erdogan, as usual, he called Israel an apartheid state and a terrorist state that commits genocide against the Palestinian people and called for an urgent meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, in Istanbul of course, as well as international mobilization "in solidarity with our Palestinian brothers." But this time, he lost his monopoly on anti-Israel rhetoric and passion, as the entire opposition competed with him in anti-Israeli rhetoric, also betting on Turkey's general anti-Israel sentiment, sometimes surpassing it, to garner votes, following Erdogan's example.

Epilogue-Estimates.

Let's take a look at the prevailing scenarios in these very interesting and crucial parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey. According to the latest polls, an uncertain outcome is expected. The Turkish media, which is overwhelmingly controlled by the Erdogan regime, present optimistic polls for President Erdogan, but the reality is different and there are many scenarios. According to many analysts, the prevailing scenario is that Erdogan ultimately wins the presidential elections in the first round and the AKP maintains its majority in parliament. In the presidential elections, the opposition forces Erdogan to go to a second round. Analysts believe that Erdogan remains the favorite in this scenario as well. However, if the AKP loses its majority in the parliamentary elections that will be held in a single round on Sunday, “Erdogan will enter a second round with his traditional image of the dominant and invincible seriously damaged,” according to Kemal Kirişci of the Brookings Institution. “The most likely outcome of the elections is an Erdogan victory and an unbalanced parliament,” according to Aaron Stein of the Atlantic Council. However, this scenario would plunge Turkey into a period of deep uncertainty, shake confidence in the already shaky and faltering Turkish economy and possibly trigger new elections. In the event of a second round and a victory for the sure runner-up from the first round, Ince, then "If that happens, there will likely be a massive political change on many fronts," according to Mark Pierini, a researcher at Carnegie Europe, who mainly focuses on economic policies and relations with the West.

During his campaign, Erdogan promised to further consolidate power in a regime based on the unity of powers under him (Legislative, Executive and Judiciary). Ince promises to overturn Erdogan’s personal presidential system by returning to the separation of powers. With the April 2017 referendum, Turks had decided to completely surrender their democracy. Now, about a year later, they may decide to take it back. Could this happen? Possibly, but with one necessary condition: There must be no widespread fraud by the Erdogan system, since everything is at stake for President Erdogan, both for himself and for his family. And the crucial factor, as if by irony of fate, remains for Erdogan and the AKP, the…..Kurds!!

*Mr. Ioannis Athan. Baltzoi is an Antgos (retd.), former AKAM Tel Aviv, former Operations Officer of the European Union ECMM in the Bosnian War, Graduate of the Tactical Intelligence School (US Army) and holder of a Master's Degree (M.Sc.) in Geopolitical Analysis, Geostrategic Composition from the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. Member of the Board of Directors of ELISME.