Hippocrates Daskalakis: The Meteor Step of the Stork and in Skopiano
The resolution of the Greece-Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia disputes is undoubtedly a key objective of Athens' high strategy. At the present time, the Skopje government, declaratively and for a multitude of reasons, is demonstrating a more conciliatory stance than its predecessor.
Common sense, realism and history, over time and in similar cases, indicate the necessity of mutual concessions, quite painful for both sides. The extent of the concessions depends on the balance of power, as reflected in the specific international situation, and on the successful negotiation strategy of each side, with the factor of national unity playing an important role.
The latter factor, due to the bilateral ethnic composition of FYROM, constitutes one of the weak links in the state structure and at the same time a key reason for the Slav-Macedonian element's insistence on creating an identity.
Greece, on the other hand, not having similar problems, is trying with the shared responsibility of almost the entire political world to neutralize this basic negotiating advantage of its own. Unfortunately, the solution of the Skopje issue is not seen through the prism of the necessity of a positive solution to a national problem, but as a means to neutralize our political opponent. Of course, the primary responsibility lies with the government, which with its actions creates reasonable concerns about its intentions and amateurish manipulations. However, the major opposition is not without responsibility, which instead of credible criticism focuses on attacking the “unnatural” government coalition.
I believe that the irresponsible approach to the issue by the parties in Athens and the political cost will eliminate any hope of finding a compromise solution at this time. Such a development is not necessarily negative, provided that Greece has the ability to maneuver appropriately and avoid being targeted for any failure of the negotiations. Therefore, in addition to the resolution efforts that the Greek government must continue (it would be a good idea if it could do so in cooperation with the entire political world), it should be prepared to deal with the consequences of a shipwreck.
In this case, after convincingly presenting its view on the causes of the potential failure, it should assure Skopje and the international environment of its intentions to support Macedonia until a mutually acceptable solution is found. In fact, since Skopje's accession to NATO will not be possible, perhaps the case of the Greek initiative to guarantee the country's territorial integrity in cooperation with the two other NATO neighbors (Albania and Bulgaria) should be examined. Undertaking commitments and risks is inevitable for any country that wishes to play a role in its region. Of course, the truth is that the Skopje state is not currently at risk from external threats, which are covered by Article 5 of NATO, but from ethnic internal turmoil that can be fostered by external factors, but mainly by internal political instability and economic stagnation. Of course, NATO is concerned about Russian efforts to regain control of the Balkans (especially in Serbia and FYROM) with political, defense, economic, and energy projects, but Skopje will likely have difficulty abandoning the Western choice it made years ago.
Despite the statements of officials on the necessity of Macedonia's accession to NATO, I believe that although it is a desirable development, it is not currently a vital priority for either NATO, the EU, or Washington, as they see no immediate risk of collapse or destabilization. The Albanian element, at present, is following American instigations and, having focused on the issue of Kosovo, does not wish to open a new front, in a sector in which it believes that demography is already moving steadily in its favor. The above assessments, if verified, offer our country the possibility of insisting on a complete solution, with the complex name constituting the greatest Greek retreat, provided that all other (and most sensitive) issues of identity, irredentism, relations, etc. have been sincerely and permanently resolved.
In any case, it is also necessary to continue and strengthen any kind of bilateral or multilateral cooperation with FYROM in the fields of economy, energy, education, civil protection, security and defense. For example, offering a significant number of places to Skopje students in Greek universities as well as in military and police academies would constitute not only a gesture of goodwill but also an effort to engage the future elites of this country.