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The war in Ukraine and the geopolitical awakening of the European Union

Dr. Evita Dionysiou*

Introduction

There are many who characterize the European Union as an “economic and commercial giant,” but also as a “geopolitical dwarf.” Although the above characterization contains some elements of exaggeration, the European Union is indeed extremely weak in terms of foreign policy and security and defense policy, often failing to draw a common line on critical issues (such as, for example, Euro-Turkish, Euro-Russian, and Euro-Chinese relations).

The reason for this weakness is none other than the intergovernmental nature of the European Union's foreign, security and defence policy, which requires decision-making by unanimity. In practice, this means that any of the 27 EU Member States can exercise a veto, blocking a joint decision on foreign, security and defence policy issues.[1]Under these circumstances, the European Union is unable to play a decisive role in the areas of foreign policy and security and defense policy, even in its immediate neighborhood.

In this case, the following oxymoron is observed: the European Union itself is blamed for its weakness and weak role in foreign policy, security and defence policy. However, in reality, the responsibility lies with the governments of the Member States, which stubbornly refuse to cede more competence to the European Union, limiting its ability to play an interventionist role in crucial international issues.

Based on the above, one would expect another awkward stance of the European Union towards the current historical juncture of the war in Ukraine, with mediocre and “lukewarm” solutions and an inability to formulate a common dynamic position. In this case, however, the reflexes of the European Union seem to have worked quickly and effectively, leading to an unprecedented rallying and an unprecedented coordination of the 27 member states. So, was the war in Ukraine the shock needed for the geopolitical awakening of the European Union?

Historic moments of unity and tectonic changes within the European Union

While many had predicted the European Union's failure to react and rise to the occasion, the Cassandras were proven wrong. The European Union, in response to Russia's "unprovoked and unjustified military attack on Ukraine"[2], imposed unprecedented packages of sanctions against Russia[3].

The economic sanctions imposed are severe (especially those affecting the Russian Central Bank) and have the potential to put a severe squeeze on the Russian economy. Already, on February 28, 2022, the Russian ruble has fallen by almost 30%.

At this point it is worth mentioning that some member states (including Germany) will be directly affected by European sanctions, due to their close economic and trade ties with Russia.[4]However, this did not prevent them from approving the joint European decision to impose sanctions.

However, in addition to the fact that the European sanctions are extremely harsh in terms of their impact on the Russian economy, they are also historic in nature, as they incorporate measures that have never been imposed before. In particular, for the first time in its history, the European Union will allocate 450 million euros to finance the purchase and delivery of weapons to a third country under attack (Ukraine). Furthermore, it will release 50 million euros for other supplies to Ukraine (fuel, etc.). This is a decision of historic importance, as it is the first time that the EU budget has been used to provide military support to a third country. The importance of this decision is even greater if we consider that its adoption required unanimity from the 27 Member States.

To the above, the European Union should also take drastic measures to become energy independent from Russia. From this perspective, the Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have awakened the European Union.

In addition to the above-mentioned groundbreaking decisions at the European Union level, a historic shift in Germany’s (and, therefore, the Union’s) security and defense policy took place. In particular, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in a speech to the Bundestag a special fund of 100 billion euros for the German armed forces, completely overturning the national budget for defense spending until then. It is estimated that in the coming years, Germany’s defense budget will exceed 2% of GDP. This is undoubtedly a historic moment, marking the abandonment of the “dogma” that German foreign policy focuses exclusively on diplomacy.

Ukraine's application for membership in the European Union

To the above, Ukraine's application for membership in the European Union should be added, a move with strong symbolism, demonstrating the country's clear orientation towards the European Union (and, more generally, towards the West).

Although the application has been warmly welcomed by EU leaders and several member states, it is estimated that the likelihood of Ukraine joining the European Union in the near future is extremely low. This is because a country's accession to the European Union involves lengthy procedures, which the Union will be very reluctant to bypass. This fact, however, does not negate the strong symbolism of the Ukrainian application.

Conclusions

Lenin is credited with the phrase “There are decades in which nothing happens, and there are weeks in which decades happen.” Indeed, the war in Ukraine dramatically accelerated developments, leading to tectonic shifts on the old continent and changing the balance of power in the entire international system.[5]Russia's invasion woke up the - according to Emmanuel Macron - "brain-dead" NATO, brought the geopolitical factor "West" back to the fore and awakened the European Union, pushing it towards further unification.

The European Union was able to bridge decades of internal disagreements in a very short time.[6] and to draw a common, dynamic line against the Russian attack on Ukraine. This is a historic leap of unification, which demonstrates that the European Union, when faced with a serious crisis, is able to rally and react with unity.

To use the words of Jean Monnet, one of the most important architects of the European construction, “Europe will be forged through crises and will be the sum of the solutions adopted to these crises.” The current crisis may, indeed, forge a more dynamic and decisive European Union, making it a powerful geopolitical player, able to determine international developments and not simply observe them.

* Dr. Evita Dionysiou is Professor of European Law at the Hellenic Police Officers' School. She also teaches a series of courses at undergraduate and postgraduate level at the Metropolitan College, in collaboration with British Universities.