Blog

Dimitris Apokis writes

When on December 22, 2024, the president-elect of America, Donald Trump, reiterated his desire for America to take control of Greenland, saying it was an “absolute necessity,” some thought it was a joke. He means it and is not joking. It was no coincidence that he sent his son, Don Jr., on the famous aircraft, Trump Air Force One, to Greenland yesterday.

The next day, Greenland's prime minister said the autonomous island, part of the kingdom of Denmark, was not for sale. But President Trump's plan, like that of William H. Seward, who, as US secretary of state, oversaw the purchase of Alaska from Russia in 1867, represents a huge geopolitical advantage for America.

It is about gaining greater American control in the Arctic, where Russia and China are working together to build a strong presence. Fears that such cooperation will expand to include North Korea and Iran are not unfounded. Many analysts believe that Russia, China, North Korea and Iran have aligned themselves in a new axis of evil.

But the immediate concerns for America come from Sino-Russian efforts, which have expanded significantly over the past decade. China’s northernmost point is 13 degrees latitude from the Arctic Circle, or 1.443 kilometers. However, in 2014, Chinese President Xi boldly declared China a quasi-Arctic state, launched an Arctic strategy, and set out to make his country a polar power.

Last July, four Chinese and Russian strategic bombers, all taking off for the first time from an air base in northeastern Russia, flew over the Chukchi and Bering Seas. In October, Chinese and Russian coast guard fleets conducted their first joint patrol in the Arctic. These raids followed joint naval exercises in the Bering Strait in 2022 and 2023. The two countries also signed a memorandum of understanding on maritime law enforcement in 2023.

In addition to defense, Sino-Russian projects in the Arctic include scientific research and the supply of natural gas and uranium. Russian natural gas exports to China are at an all-time high. Above all, however, China wants to increase the use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Trans-Pacific Sea Route (TSR) for shipping. These routes can reduce shipping time from China to Europe by at least 50%. Chinese policymakers call these passages the Polar Silk Road (PSR), part of the broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

China has also found a foothold in Greenland. The island is clamoring for independence from Denmark, and its autonomous government has welcomed Chinese investment, mainly in icebreaking and rare earth mining. In 2023, Beijing's investment in Greenland amounted to $264,5 billion.

Two recent reports, one from the US Pentagon and the Rand Corporation, highlight serious concerns about the Arctic for America.

American interest in the Arctic began only after the purchase of Alaska. In the second half of the 19th century, the discovery of vast natural resources: gold, coal, diamonds, nickel, copper, oil, and natural gas, spurred competitive American, Canadian, and Russian exploitation of the region.

The region is governed by international law, primarily the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). But the eight Arctic states – Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States, which have territorial claims in the Arctic – are members of the Arctic Council, formed in 1996 to enhance cooperation and coordination. They have also signed a non-binding agreement, the 1991 Strategy for the Protection of the Arctic Environment. China – like Japan, Korea, India, Singapore and Italy – has permanent observer status in the Arctic Council, gained in 2013. Apart from Russia, all Arctic states are NATO allies, making America’s role in the region more important, although only 15% of the Arctic is American territory.

In the early 1940s, the Arctic was recognized as a strategic location for bases, airstrips, and communications centers. World War II and the ensuing Cold War intensified the conflict and confrontation. Russia, which refers to the Arctic as a second-priority region, has the most significant military presence there. It sources 80% of its natural gas and 20% of its oil production from the Arctic. It also claims the NSR, the most navigable polar sea route, a claim the United States has rejected. Its population in the region, the length of its Arctic Ocean coastline (24.140 km, or 53% of the ocean's entire coastline), its level of economic activity, and its nuclear assets and other infrastructure make Russia a formidable presence.

Greenland, the largest landmass in the Arctic, has proven a viable addition to Alaska as a means for America to strengthen its presence in the Arctic. American forces officially entered the island in the 1940s. In 1946, America offered to purchase Greenland from Denmark for $100 million in gold bullion. The deal fell through, but in 1951, a treaty with Denmark granted America exclusive jurisdiction over defense areas in Greenland. In 1953, America built Thule (now Pituffik) Air Base on the island. In 1959, Greenland became part of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, a joint Canadian and American air and space security system.

In 2018, the U.S. Second Fleet, responsible for the North Atlantic, was re-established. A U.S. consulate in Greenland, closed in 1952, reopened in 2020.

Security concerns in the Arctic have grown as China and Russia cooperate. There are fears that Russia could grant China greater access, allowing it to develop a military presence. Canada recently announced two new consulates in the Arctic, in Alaska and Greenland. It is investing in Arctic security and has integrated five Nordic allies that are members of NATO. Denmark is equally concerned and is increasing defense spending on Greenland.

During the first Trump administration, America signed an agreement with the Arctic Council in 2018 to strengthen regional scientific cooperation. The following year, Washington blocked an Arctic Council statement on climate change, which could be used as an excuse to undermine the West’s strategic interests in the Arctic.

President Trump's return to the White House means that Chinese incursions into the Arctic will be prevented and the complex challenges of the Arctic will be better addressed.

* Dimitris G. Apokis is an Internationalist, Journalist,