Apostolos Tsombanis-Notios*: EU: The successive "crises", its future and the position of Greece
The European Union is experiencing perhaps the longest period of crisis since its founding, starting in 2005 and continuing to this day. This situation resembles a spiral of successive crises, starting with the rejection of the European Union Constitution and ending with the migration crisis and the debt crisis.
Before the referendums in France and the Netherlands, the EU was seen as a cohesive and strong political and economic alliance and a significant interlocutor on the international stage, both politically and economically. At the Copenhagen Summit (2002), the largest enlargement in the history of the EU was decided, with the accession of ten states, including Cyprus and almost all of the Eastern European countries that were in the sphere of influence of the former USSR during the Cold War.
Euroconstitution – Reform Treaty
2003 was a landmark year in the history of the European Union, as a major reform towards political unification was attempted. At the Athens Summit, the European Constitution was presented by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, former President of France (1974-1981) and President of the Commission responsible for its preparation. The draft was adopted by the European Council and submitted to the Member States for approval either by national parliaments or by referendum. At the same time, the Accession Treaty of the ten new member states (Cyprus, Malta, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland) was signed in the Stoa of Attalos and the accession date was set for May 1, 2004. After the European elections of June 2004, the Prime Minister of Portugal, José Manuel Barroso, was elected as the new President of the European Commission.
2005 marked the first major crisis of the European Union. France and the Netherlands rejected the European Constitution in respective referenda. The negative result in both referenda led the EU leadership to “put it on hold” and enter a period of reflection on its course. Two years later, in 2007, the EU Reform Treaty was adopted, which was approved by all EU member states, without being referred to referendums. This development, one could say, was an example of the democratic deficit that prevailed within the ranks of the Union.
In implementation of the Reform Treaty, Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy was elected President of the European Council in 2009, and Catherine Ashton was elected High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. José Manuel Barroso was re-elected President of the European Commission.
International Economic Crisis
The outbreak of the economic crisis in the US also affected the EU, as expected. However, the greatest inequality existed within the Eurozone, with the countries of the “rich North” and the “poor South”. On the other hand, the fiscal framework was quite “tight” with the possibility of inflation of up to 3%, while with their accession the Eurozone member states had lost important economic tools with which they could potentially deal with problems in public finances. As a result, many states found themselves in the eye of the storm, with Greece first. Because the EU did not yet have a financial support mechanism, the states of the South received financial assistance from the ECB and the IMF. However, the terms of the loans were very harsh, as they were linked to measures that included cuts in wages and pensions, increased taxation mainly on middle and low incomes, and sweeping changes to labor legislation.
This package had an impact on a social and political level. A large part of society felt indignant about the package of measures and turned towards various far-right or far-left formations. The illustration of this indignation was seen in Greece in the 2012 parliamentary elections when the far-right formation of Golden Dawn managed to enter the Parliament. A similar thing happened in Cyprus in 2016, with the entry of ELAM into the House of Representatives. In other states, many such formations went so far as to claim participation in the government. There was also a depiction at the European level, as the Far-Right and Eurosceptics managed to have a strengthened presence in the European Parliament after the 2014 European elections, without succeeding in influencing developments. It is worth mentioning that after the 2014 European elections, the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, was elected President of the European Council, and the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, was elected President of the European Commission.
Brexit
The strongest shock for the European Union came from the United Kingdom. In the referendum of June 23, 2016, 52% of voters voted in favor of the country's withdrawal from the EU, compared to 48% who voted in favor of the new agreement that the Cameron government concluded with the Union. Within a short period of time, David Cameron resigned from the post of Prime Minister. The then Home Secretary, Theresa May, was elected in his place. Theresa May, in forming her government, appointed Boris Johnson, one of the leaders of the Brexit campaign and former mayor of London, as Foreign Secretary.
Brexit negotiations began in early 2017, but were interrupted by Theresa May's call for a snap general election in the summer of that year. In the election, the Conservatives won again, but lost the majority in the House of Commons that they had achieved in the 2015 election. As a result, the Conservatives formed a government with the support of a small party from Northern Ireland, the United Democrats.
After a long period of negotiations, an agreement was reached between the United Kingdom and the European Union on the terms of withdrawal and the successor status that will concern economic and diplomatic contacts between the two parties. The border regime in Northern Ireland was a “red flag”. The agreement was that customs would be established between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but only in Great Britain. This provoked the anger of MPs who were supporters of a hard Brexit, who threatened to vote against it. In fact, the Foreign and Brexit Ministers resigned, expressing their opposition to the agreement.
Despite three attempts by the May government, the deal fell through in the House of Commons, as it was voted down by a portion of Conservative MPs, Labour and the smaller opposition parties. Thus, last July, Theresa May resigned as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson, the resigned Foreign Secretary, was elected as her successor at Number 10 Downing Street.
Immediately after taking office, he promised to proceed with Brexit and leave the European Union. Despite his efforts, it was once again impossible to pass the UK's Withdrawal Agreement from the EU. Boris Johnson also lost his majority in the House of Commons, with more than twenty members of the ruling party leaving the parliamentary group. As a result, he called a snap general election for December 12, in which he won a landslide victory with strong self-confidence. In contrast, Labour was crushed by the loss of a significant number of seats. Immediately upon re-assignment, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom stated that he would proceed with the passage of the Withdrawal Agreement and the United Kingdom would leave on 31 January 2020. Following the passage of the bill by the House of Commons, the United Kingdom will leave the European Union on 31 January 2020. The transition period will end on 31 December 2020.
Migration Crisis
An additional challenge, which has existed since 2015, is the management of the refugee-immigration issue. Since the beginning of 2015, hundreds of thousands of people from Asian and African countries have entered Europe illegally, through Greece, Italy and Spain. Many of them come from war zones (e.g. Syria). The vast majority, however, come from non-war zones (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Morocco, Tunisia). Here, the gap between North and South was once again evident. The Chancellor of Germany, in her statements at the beginning of the migration crisis, urged migrants to go to Germany to find work. This resulted in a sharp increase in refugee and migration flows to the South and mainly to Greece, resulting in them becoming uncontrollable. Also, many EU countries “closed” their borders to refugees, such as Austria, Poland and Hungary. This resulted in thousands of refugees and illegal immigrants accumulating in Greek territory, often in miserable conditions.
Despite the great problem, unfortunately the EU did not rise to the occasion and did not provide a substantive solution to this crisis. Unfortunately, the member states prioritized national or micro-political interests over the collective interest and did not respect the principle of proportionality. Despite the EU-Turkey Agreement on the reduction of migratory flows, Turkey has interrupted cooperation and is no longer preventing migratory flows to Greece, which is expected to intensify with the improvement of meteorological conditions from next spring, and will find Greece unprepared.
Turkish Provocation
Turkey's provocation towards Greece, Cyprus, and the EU is another important issue. After the failed coup of July 15, 2016, Turkey raised its tone towards the West. In particular, it turned against Greece when the Supreme Court ruled in favor of granting asylum to the 8 Turkish officers who defected by helicopter and landed in Alexandroupoli. The President of Turkey had repeatedly stated (but without evidence) that he had received an explicit assurance from the then Prime Minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras, that the 20 Turkish officers would be extradited to Turkey within 8 days at the latest, which ultimately did not happen.
Another heated incident was the arrest of the two Greek soldiers in the Karagaç Triangle in Evros, the only land border section between the two countries. Although it was a routine border incident, the two soldiers were held in Edirne prisons and even faced charges of espionage against Turkey. During their detention, President Erdogan had proposed an exchange of the two Greek soldiers with the eight Turkish soldiers who were granted asylum in Greece. After the internationalization of the issue by Greece and pressure from the other side of the Atlantic, the two soldiers were finally released and returned to Greece. The charges were changed to illegal entry into Turkey and they were tried in absentia.
The baton was taken by the statements of the Turkish Government for the renegotiation of the Treaty of Lausanne, which determined the borders of the two states. President Erdogan declared that Turkey lost out on Lausanne, the moment it annexed Eastern Thrace, the Karagaç Triangle, Imbros and Tenedos without a fight. He called on Greece to engage in direct negotiations for the revision of the Treaty, even during his official visit to Athens. The answer, through the mouth of the then President of the Republic Prokopis Pavlopoulos, was clear: There is no question of revising the Treaty of Lausanne.
The most significant problems for the EU came when Turkey raised the issue of joint exploitation of hydrocarbon deposits in Cyprus and sent research vessels escorted by its navy, in flagrant violation of the Law of the Sea. In fact, it proceeded to block a maritime plot off Famagusta against an Italian company's research vessel, forcing the latter to leave the area. Furthermore, it has openly stated in all tones that it will not allow itself to be excluded from the exploitation of Cyprus' deposits.
As a result, Turkey's Minister of National Defense, General Hulusi Akar, published the "Blue Homeland" maps, according to which it claimed half of the Aegean Sea and Northern Greece up to Thessaloniki, considering them its own territories lost in the wars. Following this, it proceeded to sign an EEZ Delimitation Agreement with Libya, bypassing the EEZs of Greece and Cyprus.
This agreement triggered developments in Libya. Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army, declared the agreement invalid. The same was done by the President of the Libyan Parliament. At the same time, this agreement was characterized as invalid by both the EU and members of Congress, after the Keetification of Greece and Cyprus. A few days later, the Libyan Parliament voted against the agreement. At the same time, Khalifa Haftar launched an armed movement against the Libyan government, with the aim of overthrowing it.
Seeing the developments and the instability caused in the Mediterranean region, Germany convened a Conference to resolve the Libyan Problem, with the absence of Greece. The absence is due to the non-invitation of Greece by Germany, which caused a reaction from Greece. The Prime Minister of Greece, in an interview, stated that Greece will veto any solution found for Libya if it does not include the cancellation of the EEZ Delimitation Agreement with Turkey.
Epilogue
The fifteen-year crisis that the EU is experiencing shows that it remains, without showing any signs of abating, despite reform efforts. The EU seems weak to cope with the new challenges that are presented, one after the other.
Within the Union, various groups are forming that want to have a leading role in the decision-making process, or even to decide without taking the member states into account. These tendencies may be the cause of disintegrative tendencies, or even withdrawal within the member states.
The EU is called upon to respond successfully and to change radically, to the extent that it constitutes a pillar of stability in the region. Greece is called upon and must contribute in this direction, while simultaneously ensuring its national interests at the highest possible level. Europe is the home of many states, including Greece, but Greece is the cornerstone of Europe, along with Rome and Christianity.
*By Apostolos Tsombanis-Notios, Balkanologist-Author, Member of ELISME