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RUSSIA
Putin's New Strategy

Lieutenant General (retd.) CHR. MOUSTAKIS
Honorary Commander of the 1st Army

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, two trends emerged in the conduct of Russia's foreign policy.
The original one, whose exponent was Yeltsin, sought a strategic alliance with the US, so that Russia could remain in the spotlight as a superpower, as during the USSR, exploiting its nuclear arsenal.
This tendency was quickly debunked. The country's economic collapse and the humiliations it suffered on issues that opposed the United States, such as the war in Yugoslavia and the eastward expansion of NATO, shattered all illusions. It became clear that the United States would continue to treat Russia as an enemy in the future and would seek both its geostrategic isolation and the delay of its reconstruction.
After the failure of the initial trend, a new one emerged, whose exponent was former Prime Minister Primakov. Its central idea was the creation of “counter-axes”, that is, the conclusion of alliances with all the countries that coincided with Russia’s interests against the US, in order to create counterweights to American omnipotence. With this in mind, the “Shanghai Agreement”, with the participation of China and other Central Asian states, and the “Energy Agreement with the EU” were concluded. A new common front of Russia, France and Germany against the US was also created, for the war in Iraq.
The results of this policy were also poor, and so the Russians realized that this could not be the main axis of their strategy, because both China and the major European countries have completely different goals. Besides, Germany also wants Russia's geostrategic isolation so that it does not expand towards the Mediterranean.
Putin realized that the above trends do not serve Russia's strategic interests and therefore he formulated a new, more realistic foreign policy. Its goal is not to co-opt the countries of the immediate environment. Avoiding grandiose idealism, he seeks to regain the lost influence that the USSR exercised in the former Soviet republics. This policy consists of freeing it from the embrace of the USA and re-establishing a looser union based on democratic principles and with equal participation. However, the success of this policy depends on two factors, the economic reconstruction of the country and the closure of the Chechen problem, which threatens to infect the entire Caucasus and internationally discredit Russia.
Putin knows this and that is why all his actions are aimed at:
• To control, under the pretext of terrorism, pro-American countries in the immediate vicinity, such as Georgia and Uzbekistan, and bring them back into the Russian orbit.
• In the economic reconstruction of the country, which presupposes the crushing of the formidable power of large private economic interests and the entanglement of the regional Governors of the vast country with these interests and the Russian mafia.
The above explains the two packages of measures he announced, taking advantage of the dramatic events of Beslan:
The first includes preemptive strikes on terrorists abroad, the reinstatement of the death penalty, more intensive monitoring of foreigners inside the country, harsher penalties for those who aid terrorism, but also for officials who do not perform their duties well. As is evident, these measures herald operations of one form or another in the pro-American countries of the immediate environment, which will not be persuaded by peaceful means to return to the Russian orbit, as well as the clearing of the public administration of all elements for which there are indications and even proof that they are collaborating, for reasons of bribery, with terrorism. The Russian authorities are certain that the female suicide bomber managed to board one of the two planes that crashed in Russia in August with bribery and that the terrorists managed to invade the school in Beslan in the same way.
The second package includes changes to the method of electing members of the Duma and the administrations of the 89 regions (they will be elected by party lists and not by the current system that provides for a mixed election by party lists and lists drawn up at the local level) and to the method of electing regional Governors (they will be proposed by the Kremlin and elected by local parliaments and not by direct elections by the people who can be any candidate, as is the case today). With these measures, he seeks to acquire extraordinary powers for the war that will be waged with the intertwined interests, in order to advance the economic reconstruction of the country.
Putin's undertaking is very difficult because it will encounter enormous reactions at home and abroad, which began the day after the announcements.
Internally, the first to accuse him was former President Yeltsin, known for his involvement with the wealth tycoons, who are in Putin's sights. On the same wavelength are the reactions of the opposition, which accuses him of strangling freedoms and canceling democratic rights, but also of those involved who began a smear campaign against him with paid publications in the domestic and international press.
Abroad, the US first reacted through Secretary of State Powell, who accused him of a setback in Russia's democratization, followed by the right-wing opposition in Germany and the pro-American countries of Latvia and Lithuania.
There were also serious reactions from the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which includes all former Soviet republics, except for the three Baltic republics that now belong to NATO and the EU. Georgia reacted more strongly, which is estimated to be Putin's first target in the context of preemptive strikes, because terrorists take refuge on its border with Chechnya.
It is expected that America's reactions will intensify, because it knows that Putin is seeking with cold calculation and determination to restore Russia to the role of a great international power. And this is what they fear, not the regression in its already problematic democratization. The same will of course happen on the part of the intertwined economic interests at home.
It is impossible to predict the success of the “revolution from above,” as Putin’s announcements have been called. It will depend on whether he manages to avoid a head-on conflict with the United States, but also to allay the concerns of Russia’s immediate surroundings, to which most of the measures concern. Putin has proven himself capable and realistic, but also quite cunning, given his previous service in the KGB, qualities that may help him succeed.
For Greece, it is estimated that there will be no immediate consequences. However, there is the possibility that it could be involved in the UN Security Council, of which it was recently elected a non-permanent member.
Regardless of this, however, it must closely monitor developments and be ready to react, because any aggravation of relations between Russia-USA-England, which seek its geostrategic isolation, will have direct consequences for our national interests.