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From strategic intolerance to rationalization

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14/08/2020 09:08 EEST | Updated 14/08/2020 09:14 EEST

From strategic intolerance to rationalization

The next step in strategic rationalization, we hope, will be the management of Franco-German competition in the Mediterranean area.

 

EUROKINISSIOn Thursday, August 13, 2020, and within the framework of the ongoing military cooperation between Greece and France, a joint naval exercise was held with the participation of assets and personnel from the two countries, in the maritime area of ​​the Eastern Mediterranean, including the area that Turkey has reserved with an illegal NAVTEX for the purpose of conducting investigations.

Etymologically, the word intolerance comes from the prefix dys and the verb anehomai and describes the lack of tolerance towards a situation. In medicine, food intolerance consists of the body's discomfort from ingesting certain types of food. We are therefore borrowing a fundamentally medical term to illustrate the process of adapting the dominant domestic system of shaping and exercising foreign policy, with regard to the management of Greek-Turkish relations in recent times.

It is a fact that the effective response to Turkish actions in Evros and the Aegean this year was due to the adoption of deterrent strategies, to Ankara's intention to use unhappy people to achieve its foreign policy goals. At the present juncture, in the eastern Mediterranean, a further restructuring of Greek foreign policy is observed on the basis of a strategic approach, which also includes the mention of the use of military (counter)measures, with regard to the control of Turkish claims. It is apparent that the dead-end "strategy" of recent decades, which reproduced ineffective and damaging rhetorical schemes and diplomatic practices, is being gradually abandoned.

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The adaptation is evident even if it takes two steps forward and one step back, a result of the intolerance of some towards strategic correctness. For a long time, the domestic political system drew "strategic" thinking from sources that are difficult to define as artesian. Of course, Tayyip Erdogan, as the most important reformer of Greek strategy, will overcome the objections of even the most intolerant.

The ever-escalating militarization of Turkish foreign policy was expected to push the corresponding Greek one to adopt expanded policies that do not exclude the use of military means. At the same time, the “doctrine of immobility” was abandoned in the diplomatic field, so as not to irritate the irritable neighbor, as evidenced by the recent conclusion of a -partial- delimitation of maritime zones with Egypt. The intensifying Turkish aggression limits the formative influence, with regard to Greek foreign policy, of positions and actions that recommended sharing Ankara’s self-understanding.

The next step of strategic rationalization will (I hope) be the management of the Franco-German competition in the Mediterranean area. For those who know things and situations, these divergences between Berlin and Paris date back to the time when France tried to create the Mediterranean Union. Germany's claim to expand its foothold in the Mediterranean - I do not think anyone considers that the German mediation initiative is driven only by peace-loving motives - affects French interests. Schematically, the last thing French diplomacy wants is the strengthening of Germany in the Mediterranean.   

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German foreign policy seeks to avoid a Greek-Turkish escalation, which would give France a pretext to act in the eastern Mediterranean. The convergences between Berlin and Ankara in the economic and geopolitical fields dictate to German diplomacy the avoidance of a French intervention, which would be painful for Turkey. In this light, Germany's perfectly balanced stance in the Greek-Turkish confrontation is understandable, even though Turkey violates international law and threatens with military means, while Greece operates in accordance with international law and is a partner in the EU.

Athens must be very careful about Berlin's mediation initiative and certainly not sacrifice the French desire to control a revisionist Turkey for a temporary and instrumental de-escalation in the coming period. Berlin seeks to de-escalate the tension to avoid sanctions against Ankara, within the framework of the EU, and to prevent the further strengthening of the French factor in the Mediterranean.

Finally, let us not forget that the mutual assistance clause concerns exclusively the EU member states, without -fortunately- involving the other European institutions, giving the opportunity to any state that wishes and is able to assist another member state, in the event that it is attacked by a third state. May Greece continue to adapt to the real and not the desired international political data of space and time. We are prisoners of geography, many exclaim, let us not become prisoners of Turkish hegemony, others respond.