Blog

And while everyone's attention (rightly or wrongly) is focused on the TIF, where every year (wrongly) the interest is not in the exhibition per se with the enormous business opportunities of an export nature that it can offer, but in the announcements/accounts/promises of the political world, an extremely interesting meeting will take place in Athens.

The Greek Prime Minister has invited the Prime Ministers of France, Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Portugal to an informal summit of a “southern front” on September 9. The agenda as it has been set is very ambitious and includes both economic and social issues such as development with an emphasis on tackling unemployment, strengthening social cohesion and attracting investment, as well as foreign policy issues with an emphasis on immigration and refugees. Of course, from this meeting, if we exclude its communicative and perhaps instrumental political character, we should not expect either policy changes or substantial actions on any of the “everything-everything” issues on the agenda. However, a start can be made. An institutional direction can be given to the whole initiative.

Let's call it Athens Understanding (Au-6).

But what will be the cohesive elements and goals of this group? Anti-austerity is certainly not enough. As in the case of criticism of the famous BRICS, anti-IMF/US/Dollar intentions are not enough. The BRICS, like other initially interested states and regions (ASEAN, EAEU, APEC, MERCOSUR) outside the framework of the major post-war supranational organizations (UN, NATO, OECD) and the institutions of the so-called "Bretton Woods system" (WTO, World Bank, IMF), have as their main axis economic cooperation and trade and aim at economic union. Some of them are supported by an investment bank such as the New Development Bank (NDB) of the BRICS, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the case of ASEAN or the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) at the initiative of China.

The important peculiarity in the case of Au-6 is that on the one hand the sizes are smaller (but not by much) and most importantly that the stage of economic union with the European Union has already been reached within the framework of which the initiative should be launched. According to Article 20§ 2 of the Lisbon Treaty, enhanced cooperation between Member States is approved by the European Council “as a last resort, if it establishes that the objectives of such cooperation cannot be achieved within a reasonable time by the Union as a whole, and on condition that at least nine Member States participate in it”. Therefore, the possibilities for maneuver within the EU exist, but with some particularities. There are precedents for similar synergies. An excellent example is the so-called Visegrad Group of countries, which have recently made their common positions particularly evident. Another case, much more extensive, is the Union pour la Méditerranée.

There are two questions; the first concerns the specific weight of this particular group of states in relation to their relations outside the group; do they in some cases form the critical mass that will allow them to have a say? The second concerns the possibilities for cooperation within the group; are there areas in which cooperation will lead to better results within the system of 6?

As the table shows, the Au-6 countries represent 61% of the total area of ​​the EU, 58% of its population and 52% of the GDP. Politically, they hold 33% of the seats in the European Parliament (for whatever that is worth).

In the areas of defense and security, beyond the common line, the possibilities of independent initiatives of the Au-6 are limited both due to the participation of all members (with the exception of Cyprus) in NATO, and in the existing European framework of the CFSP. Of course, the Spanish Juan Carlos, the French Mistral and Charles de Gaulle as well as the Italian Giuseppe Garibaldi, there are very few things they cannot do in the Mediterranean!

However, where there is a bright spot is in the area of ​​coordinated business activity and direct investment. In addition to participation and a common strategy in EU institutions, no one is preventing the creation of an economic forum (Athens Understanding Economic Forum) where the business and political world of the member countries will establish regular meetings and actions. Working groups could be created for each individual sector (e.g. tourism, energy and renewable energy sources, innovation and technology, education). A common line could also be followed in the upcoming Article 50 negotiations with Great Britain.

The challenges are of course very big: How will France, Europe's second largest economy and part of the dipole with Germany, be convinced to participate? Especially when it enters an election period with perhaps the highest stakes in recent decades. So will Italy. Mateo may also face elections before the end of the year. Spain is trying to stop holding elections (but it works flawlessly).

We should not forget that Greece, like the rest of the Au-6 in economic terms, although at the European level they belong to the "South", at the global level they belong to the "North". It is certain that at the end of the informal summit there will be no shortage of broad smiles and "family" photos (with or without a tie). There is no ambition to change anything substantial, but let's make a start. The main thing is to agree that we agree. We start and the 6 can become the 9 that the Lisbon Treaty requires. History has shown that in times of crisis, an adventure of the country abroad unites. Why should we not seek cooperation instead of an adventure? Besides, the main characteristic of modern Geoeconomy is also Co-competition.