21/7/2016. WEEKLY MEMBER UPDATE (8/7/2016-14/7/2016)
Coup attempt against Erdogan.
A plot to overthrow and possibly assassinate Erdogan was foiled, resulting in the arrest of 357 Turkish Armed Forces personnel of all ranks. Among them were a vice admiral, a rear admiral and three captains of the Turkish Navy who were court-martialed. Arrests of senior Turkish Army officers also took place in Constantinople.
According to reports, the suspects had contacts in the US, implying a strong connection with Feth. Gulen and behind-the-scenes American action to overthrow Erdogan. A security official in Izmir revealed that this is a major case of espionage for a foreign country. These are officers ideologically devoted to the imam Feth. Gulen, who lives in the US. Erdogan seems to hold those who host him responsible.
NATO is preparing for action in the Mediterranean
NATO is planning a broader engagement in the Mediterranean, according to information from the Summit, held in Warsaw on 8 & 9 July 2016. Secretary General Stoltenberg announced the transformation of the current operation Active Endeavour into a security mission called Sea Guardian.
This mission will be NATO's first enhanced cooperation with the European Union in the central Mediterranean and was confirmed by the Joint Declaration of Stoltenberg, Tusk and Juncker.
It is noted that Operation Active Endeavour was launched after the September 11 attacks to protect shipping in the Mediterranean. Warships from Greece, Turkey, Italy and Spain form the core of Active Endeavour, along with patrol boats from Denmark, Germany and Norway.
The Alliance will assist the EU's Operation Sophia in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), as well as in the development of the Libyan coast guard and navy. Countering smuggling and terrorism and ensuring freedom of navigation are also part of Sea Guardian's tasks. NATO also plans to use drones in the future, operating from a base in Sigonella, Italy.
Obama's messages about Putin, the Philippines and closer defense cooperation.
During the recent NATO summit in Warsaw, when Tsipras pointed out that the refugee crisis would only end when the war in Syria ended, the American president responded: "Your friend Putin should contribute too."
Also, on the occasion of the Greek Prime Minister's recent visit to China, Obama reportedly said: "I know you are forming a tight framework for Greek-Chinese economic cooperation, but be careful on the issue with the Philippines."
He also said that the Defense Ministers of the two countries should have more frequent contacts on issues of defense cooperation.
A Financial Times article accused the Greek prime minister of “breaking” the unanimous NATO position and calling for cooperation with Russia. NATO officials are said to have also criticized the Greek defense minister’s announcement of new cooperation with Russia, which involves the creation of a production line for Russian Kalashnikov small arms, and they expect elections with Mitsotakis as the winner.
Bulgaria does not agree with NATO's plans to create a Black Sea Fleet.
During the NATO summit in Warsaw, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov proposed from Veliko Tarnovo the demilitarization of the Black Sea, without warships and submarines. As early as last June, Borisov had announced that Bulgaria was trying not to get involved in a conflict and that there was no need for a war in the Black Sea. These positions reflected Bulgaria's opposition to a plan to create a NATO Black Sea Fleet. The final decision will be made by NATO next October.
Regarding the sanctions against Russia, Borisov stressed that Obama, Tusk and Juncker decided to continue them, "we as a state have suffered enormous losses."
Moldova asked NATO to expel the Russian army from Transnistria.
Speaking at the NATO summit in Warsaw, Moldova's defense minister asked for help to get rid of Russian troops in Transnistria, where they have been illegally stationed for 25 years. He added that Moldova's constitution defines his state as a neutral country. But he suggested that NATO military exercises in the country be maintained until 2019 and stressed that his government would do its best to be a reliable partner of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Italian hurricane threatens Europe
There is an imminent risk of a collapse of Italian banks that could drag down the entire European financial sector. Deutsche Bank’s derivatives exposures, which exceed those of Lehman Brothers, threaten Europe with banking chaos. Given Italy’s problem with non-performing loans, the derivatives exposure of major European banks is exacerbating the problem. Italian Prime Minister Renzi recently directly referred to Deutsche Bank, which is exposed to €54,7 trillion in derivatives, almost 20 times Germany’s GDP.
The Italian prime minister insists on using state money, but Berlin wants a “haircut” first. The rule regarding the BBRD directive (entered into force this year) stipulates that in order for a bank to be allowed to be supported by state funds, it must first have a “haircut” of its shareholders and creditors (bondholders and depositors), up to the amount required to reach its capital adequacy of 8%.
If Renzi loses the referendum on constitutional reforms next October, in addition to the adverse political developments, there will be corresponding economic consequences. Citigroup estimates that if there is state support for Italian banks, it will likely be accompanied by losses for private investors.
The main Italian problems seem to be the non-performing loans, amounting to €360 billion, which exceed 20% of GDP, and the public debt, which exceeds 133% of GDP. If Italian depositors lose their confidence in the banks, the economic collapse of Italy would directly affect the entire eurozone. The French banks exposed to Italy are mainly French, with €278 billion, followed by German, with €90 billion, and other European and non-European banks. A Deutsche Bank official stated that the European banking sector only needs €150 billion in new capital from the states to be rescued, which is difficult to accept at a time when the bad loans of Italian banks alone have exceeded €360 billion and those of Greek banks €100 billion. The expected sanctions on Spain and Portugal, due to exceeding the 3% limit of the Stability Pact in their fiscal deficits, are estimated to complicate the broader European economic problem.
International actors call for Gruevski's resignation from the party
After the phone tapping scandal, the resignation of Prime Minister Gruevski, the amnesty granted by President Ivanov and its revocation by him at the request of Europeans and Americans, the announcement of parliamentary elections, which were postponed and then canceled indefinitely, Europeans and Americans seem to be promoting the current Foreign Minister Poposki to the position of Prime Minister, with whom Victoria Nuland recently met, who seems to be following in the footsteps of Madeleine Albright.
French intelligence chief: "France is on the brink of civil war"
The head of French intelligence, speaking to a committee of the French National Assembly, stated that "another terrorist attack against French people, or a wave of Cologne-style sexual attacks, will lead to a huge wave of retaliation from the far right, which in turn will lead to uncontrollable situations."
"We are on the verge of a civil war," he said characteristically, and he seems to anticipate such a generalized conflict within France: "I think this confrontation will eventually happen. It will happen with just one or two attacks," he added.
On July 11, 2016, a secret German report leaked to the press stated that at least 1.200 women suffered sexual violence from Islamists in Germany on New Year's Eve (mainly in Cologne and Hamburg), and the French official sees immediate risks of similar violence for his country.
Landmark decision against China from The Hague with Greek interest: "It has no rights in the South China Sea"
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled, regarding the control of strategically important reefs and atolls in the South China Sea, that there is no legal basis for China to claim historical rights to resources in the maritime zones within the “Nine Dash Line”, ruling in favor of the Philippines, which had unilaterally appealed to The Hague. The Court specifically ruled that the dotted line drawn by China on the map of the South China Sea is illegal and arbitrary, and the historical rights claimed by China have no validity under international law and the Spratly Islands are not islands as defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The decision, which directly serves American interests, states that "China has violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines in its exclusive economic zone by (a) interfering with its rights in matters of fishing and oil exploration, (b) constructing artificial islands, and (c) failing to stop Chinese fishermen from fishing in its EEZ."
Only on the issue of the military activities of the two sides, which is excluded from the jurisdiction of UNCLOS, the Court did not make a decision because it considered that it did not have such a right. The Chinese government announced after the decision that it did not recognize the decision, having declared from the beginning that it would not accept and recognize it.
