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INITIAL ANALYSIS ON THE WAGNER REBELLION

INITIAL ANALYSIS ON THE WAGNER REBELLION

Super User
June 26 2023
0. International Developments and Strategic Assessments
INITIAL ANALYSIS ON THE WAGNER REBELLION
     Those who systematically follow the developments of the war in Ukraine know that, approximately six months ago, there was a dispute between the founder and leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, primarily with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and, secondarily, with the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, whom he strongly criticized for administrative incompetence and operational errors. 
    The dispute escalated when Prigozhin accused them, twice in a short period of time, of not supplying Wagner fighters with the required amount of ammunition, resulting in higher-than-expected casualties and jeopardizing the success of their mission. He even threatened to withdraw his forces from the battlefield.
    As if by magic, the very next day, the required Ammunition arrived and the Operations were carried out normally. This was not a surprise. On January 13, 2023, Wagner Forces captured the city of Soledad (12 km. BA of Bakhmut). There they found the largest ammunition depot in the world. It was in a tunnel 5 kilometers long and 100 meters wide, 150 meters deep, in which there was a large quantity of ammunition of every type, placed in 300.000 boxes, capable of equipping 1.000.000 soldiers. Therefore, ammunition, there was. It simply became part of the conflict. 
 
Why did Prigozhin rebel now? 
 

    Based on the above, the tension in Prigozhin's relations with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense was known and its development, even under the extreme reaction of the Wagner leader, did not catch the Russian leadership by surprise. The occasion was simply awaited. This was given on Friday (23/6), when Prigozhin declared that the Russians had attacked his Forces with missiles. 

    The development of the situation was apparently accelerated by the following event. Recently, the Russian government decided that by July 1, all of Russia's Mercenary Forces (30 in number) must sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense. By signing the contract, they will have unlimited access to weapons and ammunition of the Russian Army. At the same time, however, they will have to be subordinated to the Operational Command of the Ministry of Defense. This is unacceptable for Prigozhin, who has recently declared that Wagner is an independent Force and will go wherever it deems appropriate and will fight to serve the interests of Russia. So Putin was pressed for time to make his move before July 1, in order to gain negotiating advantages. That is, to demand, in return, either the removal of Shoigu-Gerasimov, or the signing of an alternative contract that will serve Wagner's interests, or both.  
    This peculiarity is, perhaps, the development that will allow the situation to defuse. So far, both sides have avoided armed conflict. Putin, because, knowing Wagner's popularity, does not want to push things to the extreme and become responsible for bloodshed among Russians. Prigozhin's reasoning is similar. The only difficulty is who will take the first step back, without being considered a "defeated". Most likely it is Prigozhin, who is, militarily, weak. The Russian proposal to Wagner that its units return to their camps and be granted amnesty is also moving in this direction.
    Of course, if we adopt the view that Prigozhin acted in collaboration with foreign countries, the above would not apply.
 
Impact on the development of the war in Ukraine  

    The developments of the battles on the Ukrainian front will not be affected by the upheaval of events in Russia.

    This is because, since the first week of June, the Wagner Forces have withdrawn to the rear, in order to rest, replace their losses and regroup, in order to take on a new Mission from August 1. In the Bakhmut sector, they have been replaced by elite Airborne Forces (VDV) and Paratrooper Forces. Therefore, their withdrawal does not leave an Operational vacuum.
    Something similar is happening with the “Zapad Akhmad” Forces of 7000 Chechens who were sent to the Rostock area. These Forces, initially, had been deployed in the Avdviyka area. However, on 13/6, these Forces were replaced and deployed in the Belgorod area (40 kilometers from the Russian border with Ukraine), in order to confront the attacks there by the Ukrainians. From there, they were advanced to Rostock.  
 
George Epitideios
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