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Update on geopolitical developments 20/1-31/1/2017

Update on geopolitical developments 20/1-31/1/2017

 1. Inauguration of New President Donald Trump (Friday 20/1/2017, 19:00 Greek time).

First Moves of the President.
Donald J. Trump is sworn in as the 45th President of the United States. The ceremony took place with due pomp in the Capitol, the Temple of the American Republic, as the Legislative Power is exercised within it through the functioning of the Senate and the House of Representatives (Congress).
 "AMERICA FIRST!" With this remark, the new President wanted to show from the beginning his intention to differentiate himself from his predecessor in terms of the way in which he will act as the leader of the most powerful country on the "global chessboard."
A few hours earlier, he had posted the following message on his Twitter account:
"It all starts today! I will see you at 11:00 AM for the swearing-in. THE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. THE WORK BEGINS! Donald J. Trump (@ real Donald Trump)
Everything, then, begins today. And indeed, from the first day of his duties, he “used the presidential pen”, signing several decrees, which can be implemented without prior ratification by Congress. Of particular importance among them are those concerning healthcare, climate change, immigration, and energy. But let's look at the most important ones:
– An executive order that “will minimize the financial burdens of Obamacare.”
This is the opening act for the “teardown” of Barack Obama’s health system, which Trump had described as a “disaster” during the election campaign. However, in order for this “teardown” to take place, it must “pass” through Congress, with Republican representatives having already begun the procedures for the relevant legislative initiative. On this issue, White House Counselor Kellyanne Conway gave an assurance that the twenty million Americans who benefited from the provisions of Obamacare will not be left without medical care. According to Bloomberg, Ms. Conway stated that once Obamacare is repealed, it will be replaced by a new plan, so that these people will not be left without coverage during the transitional phase.
-Order for the withdrawal of the U.S. from the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership)
-Pacific Partnership Agreement), distancing itself from developments in the wider Asian region and while China is trying to increase its influence in the same region. Eleven other countries participate in the TPP (Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Japan, Canada, Chile, Peru, Mexico).
CNBC reported that Trump will begin negotiations with each of the countries separately to conclude individual agreements. Supporters of the TPP, however, worry that abandoning it will strengthen China's position in the Pacific. Prominent among them is Republican Senator and former presidential candidate John McCain, who, speaking on CBS, expressed concern that "with this move we are ceding Asia and the Pacific to China."
-Order for the renegotiation of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), which the U.S. signed in 1994 with contracting countries Canada and Mexico. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto is particularly concerned about this development, since his country will suffer enormous losses if tariff “walls” are erected with the U.S. The same is not true for Canada, which has “a very special framework” and is considered unlikely to be affected by the changes that Washington wishes to promote, according to the assessments of the new President’s staff. Mexicans’ concerns are also reinforced by Trump’s decision to build a real wall between the two countries. The President posted on Twitter on 25/1: “A big day is scheduled to be tomorrow for national security. Among other things, we will build the wall.” This construction, as well as a combination of other actions, aims to stop the entry of people from Latin America with the intention of applying for asylum.
-Orders regarding the temporary ban, for one hundred and twenty days, on entry into the U.S. of refugees, as well as the revocation of entry permits (visas) for ninety days for citizens of seven countries in the Middle East and Africa. These are citizens of Syria, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Sudan and Somalia. These orders, in addition to the strong reactions they cause around the world, are criticized by immigration lawyers, such as Hiroshi Motomura of the UCLA School of Law, who argues that appeals may be filed in the American courts, if the argument is substantiated that these orders reinforce discrimination against a specific religion, Islam, since this is the predominant religion in the seven countries. In this case, it would be a violation of the US Constitution. However, President Trump dismisses this accusation, arguing that the orders are not directed against Islam, but are intended to guarantee the security of the country against undeniable risks of terrorist attacks by citizens from the seven countries mentioned.
Among the measures that President Trump's staff has proposed regarding immigrants is the cancellation of the Obama decision, which allowed more than seven hundred thousand people who entered the U.S. illegally as children to stay on a two-year permit to work and attend university. In reality, it is unlikely that such a decision would lead to the immediate rounding up and deportation of these immigrants. What Trump is reasonably expected to do is let the two-year period expire, so that the issue can resolve itself.

2. How do the German Economy Minister and Foreign Minister "view" the Trump presidency?
"It is too early to judge the new US President," said Germany's Deputy Finance Minister Jens Spahn, adding that Donald Trump's plan to increase government spending could give an additional boost to the global economy, Reuters reports. He, a senior official in Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic Party (CDU), said that a certain level of competition between regions on corporate taxation was positive, but limits were needed.
Moreover, the head of the German Banking Association, Michael Kemmer, stated during a conference in Berlin that fears of a possible resurgence of the financial crisis as a consequence of financial deregulation in the U.S. were “highly exaggerated.”
However, the statements of Foreign Minister Franz Walter Steinmeyer, that with the assumption of the American Presidency by Donald Trump, “the old world of the 20th century has ended once and for all,” are considered extremely impressive. He added that “the world must prepare for a period of uncertainty.” In his relevant article, published in Bild on January 25, the head of German Diplomacy, one of President Trump’s fiercest critics, emphasizes: “What concepts of the World Order will prevail in the 1st century, what the world of tomorrow will look like, nothing has yet been determined, everything is completely open.” The world, he added, must prepare to enter a “turbulent period.” As always, he continued, in every political transition “there are uncertainties.”
“But, in this period of a new Global Disorder, it is about much more. There is much at stake,” he added.
FW Steinmeyer, expected to be elected in mid-February as the new President of the Federal Republic of Germany, a fact that further testifies to the gravity of his words. He stated that he would seek dialogue with the American President’s team in order to present “our position, our values ​​and our interests.” He finally expressed his certainty that he would find “interlocutors in Washington who know that big countries also need business allies.

3. Trump threatens the EU over the Euroarmy.
According to the Daily Express, top British military officers serving in the US Pentagon have been told that the immediate priority of the new US government is to deal with Franco-German plans to create a European army. According to the report, the British military were told that given the political tension prevailing in Eastern Europe, as well as the budgetary pressure on national budgets, it is advisable to have only one common force and that is NATO.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has deployed six battalions to Europe, including the newly arrived 3rd Armored Brigade, consisting of 3.500 soldiers and hundreds of armored vehicles, with a mission to strengthen NATO's efforts to thwart Russia's ambitions in the Eastern European region. According to the report, at his upcoming meeting in Brussels with NATO leaders later this year, President Trump will argue that the U.S. and Germany are meeting their obligations to the Alliance, but that other countries are not, and that they should take care to fill the gap.

4. G. SOROS: "The crook Trump will fail."
Billionaire investor George Soros reiterated his already publicized belief that Donald Trump “is a fraud and would-be dictator. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he said he was “convinced that Trump will fail.” “He represents another form of government, which is the opposite of an Open Society.” He added that “it is best described as a dictatorship or a mafia state.”
In an interview with Bloomberg, he explained that “Trump will fail, not because people like me want him to, but because the ideas that guide him are inherently contradictory and these contradictions have already been incorporated by his advisors.” Regarding International Relations and Trade, Soros said that “China will be significantly helped by Trump, who will do more to make China accepted as a leading member of the International Community than the Chinese themselves could do.” He argued that the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the new US President will hurt global markets. “Right now, uncertainty is at its peak and that is actually the biggest enemy of long-term investments. So I think the markets are not going to do very well.”

5. Gazprom: "Trump and Brexit will improve the West's attitude towards Moscow."
According to statements by the Deputy CEO of the state-controlled Russian natural gas company Gazprom, Alexander Medvedev, the Trump election, combined with the aftermath of the Brexit referendum in Britain and the upcoming elections in France and Germany, will lead to an improvement in the West's attitude towards Russia. In an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Vienna, he argued that these assessments are not only his personal ones, but also echo the views of many other actors in Moscow. "We believe that the results of the American elections reflect the dissatisfaction of people who are not satisfied with certain choices of the political establishment," he added.
He also argued that "He does not expect a quick turnaround in American energy policy, despite Trump's pressure for more energy exports. We must not forget that the U.S. is still a net importer of oil and gas. Changing this situation quickly is not possible due to the increase in domestic demand," Medvedev concluded.

6. Will President Donald Trump fulfill his campaign promise to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem?
It is known that during the election campaign and in order to have the support of the powerful American-Israeli Public Affairs Commission (AIPAC), Trump had committed to moving the Embassy to Jerusalem, something that no American President before him had mentioned, let alone attempted to implement. Certainly, an action like this, having a high symbolic but also substantial importance for Israel, will meet with a strong reaction from the Arabs. However, the issue has deep historical roots and its resolution seems to be one of the most complex Gordian Knots in international diplomatic history.
The Israelis captured West Jerusalem in the 1948 War of Independence, as they call it, and declared it their capital the following year. In the same war, Jordan captured East Jerusalem, which it lost to the Israelis in the Six-Day War in 1967. However, the International Community has since considered East Jerusalem to be the "occupied part of Palestine." After the Six-Day War, Israel moved the entire public administration apparatus (Government, Ministries, Knesset, etc.) to Jerusalem, making it its de facto capital, which, however, no state recognizes, with the result that all foreign Embassies, including the American one, are located in Tel Aviv, as well as the Ministry of National Defense and the General Staff of the National Defense, at Camp Yitzhak Rabin.
In our days, we had the issuance of Resolution 2334 of the UN Security Council//23-12-2016, according to which “The Jewish section of the Old City of Jerusalem, the Western Wall and the Temple Mount are declared occupied territories and any Jewish presence there, without Palestinian consent, is considered illegal”. In addition, John Kerry, Secretary of State in the Government of President Barack Obama, announced on 28-12-2016 that for the first time the USA supports the idea that Jerusalem should be the Capital of the two peoples, something that Israel does not accept at all. Contrary to the Obama-Kerry Policy, Trump, in his meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister in October 2016, had declared: “Jerusalem has been the eternal capital of the Jewish people for three thousand years.” He added that under his administration the U.S. would finally accept the authorization that Congress had long ago given to recognize Jerusalem as “the undivided capital of the State of Israel.” At this meeting, the two men happily agreed to rebuild their relations at the highest levels, since they had been completely broken by the Obama Administration.
Now, with the election of Trump, it can be reasonably estimated that in American Foreign Policy, Israel will be “the main pillar in the Middle East, a representative and a long arm.” Of course, the question with which our report begins is extremely interesting: “Will he move the Embassy to Jerusalem? If he attempts to do so, what will be the broader geopolitical implications?”

7.Meeting of Greek Minister of National Defense Panos Kammenos in Washington with Reince Priebus.
Greek Minister of National Defense Panos Kammenos had a conversation with White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus in Washington on the evening of Saturday, January 21, during which he had the opportunity to inform him about all issues of interest to Greece, with a particular focus on the completion of negotiations for the completion of the second evaluation of the Greek Bailout Program and national issues within the context of broader geopolitical developments in the Eastern Mediterranean.

8. The Taliban are warning President Trump to leave Afghanistan, “lest he suffer a shameful historical defeat.” The text, posted on Twitter and the Taliban website, states that if he persists in the path set by his predecessors and continues the illegal occupation of their country, then it will not be long before he “sinks deep into the swamp of Afghanistan.”

9. Egypt, sixth anniversary of the uprising of January 25, 2011, which led to the overthrow of Mubarak.
In a televised address, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi described the “Egyptian Revolution” as a pivotal point in the country’s history. “This is a revolution that expressed the Egyptians’ desire for change and their expectation to build a new future for the nation,” the Egyptian leader added.

10. Turkey. After the approval of the Constitutional Reform by the Parliament, the announcement of a Referendum comes around the month of April, so that the people can ratify Erdogan's plans to concentrate all powers in his hands. "At the same time" the Prosecutors proceeded to issue arrest warrants for more than four hundred people, mainly military and security forces members, who are attributed by the Erdogan regime to be "Gulenists." To date, on the occasion of the failed coup of July 15, approximately 40.000 people have been imprisoned, while another 100.000 have been dismissed or suspended. This is happening in the Turkish "Republic", a country that is insistently demanding to become a member of Europe, on "its own" terms, of course.