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Ioannis Ath. Baltzoi*: “General Soleimani. The necessary sacrifice for the USA and Iran”The improbable becomes possible and the possible becomes improbable. This is the “angelic” world of the Middle East and is proven by the latest events, in this relentless multi-front war, which has a lot of pain, blood, tears, intrigue, unholy agreements, necessary sacrifices and all the elements of the power struggle, as we have seen so characteristically, in the excellent series “Game of Thrones” and “House of Cards”. The execution of General Qassem Soleimani, contains all of the above.

General Soleimani was the most powerful man in Iran, after the country's leader Ayatollah Khamenei, and the most popular man in Iran. Hence the scenes of worship, hysteria, mourning and participation in his funeral, which caused the deaths of dozens of Iranians and the injury of hundreds, from suffocation and trampling, during the procession of his body in his hometown. Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force, an elite unit of the Revolutionary Guards, and was literally the body and soul of all movements, legal and excessive (some called them illegal), behind Iran’s extremely successful regional strategy, to project power by any means illegal, behind Iran’s extremely successful regional strategy, to project power. Soleimani implemented in practice the most successful aspect of Iran’s foreign policy – ​​the development of proxy powers in other countries and defined “political national extremism” to project his country’s power. The essence of the use of asymmetric authoritarian forces originating from Iran is also from the system that Soleimani perfected. From the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, from the Hezbollah al-Hejaz militias to the Houthi militias, from the Iraqi Popular Mobilizations militias to other lesser-known groups in Iraq, Iran's Quds Force was present, active, guiding and supporting all of them under the solid, unquestionable and decisive leadership of one man, Lieutenant General Soleimani, with the aim of projecting his country's power, controlling the leadership of these countries, for Iran's hegemony and creating the famous Shiite axis in the Middle East.

Cui Bono (Who benefits)

To interpret geopolitical developments, we must answer the Latin question, Cui bono (who benefits), which the Roman honest judge Lucius Cassius always used to investigate an illegal act. So in our case we will repeat the question: Who benefits from this action? In my assessment and from the evidence revealed by the Middle East, both countries, the USA and Iran, benefit. And here is why:

A. USA

With this action, the US is presented as the great power that can conduct operations anywhere, enforcing the law, according to its own assessments and applying its own "unwritten law of the American West". The US president, having his own personal issues with the American judiciary and the debate in Congress about his impeachment, wanted an impressive external action that would project his determination and leadership personality, so that his low popularity would recover, especially among the white average American who votes for him. And always in crises the people rally to his leadership. And he succeeded. So, especially as far as President Trump is concerned, the assassination of Soleimani serves him on a personal level.

B. Iran.

Let us emphasize first and emphatically that Iranians are not Arabs, but Persians, a sister nation in the Middle East of the Arab flood and it has a special importance and distinguishes them completely from the Arabs in all areas and especially in culture and way of thinking and acting. The theocratic regime of Iran has recently been facing many problems. The international isolation and the embargo applied in many areas against Iran, imposed by the US and forcing its Western allied countries to participate, otherwise they will suffer sanctions, have caused shortages of goods, inflation and a decrease in the standard of living of Iranians. Thus, there are doubts about the theocratic regime, protests, bloody demonstrations and even with deaths, as recently happened and it was not known. The Iranian system of governance of the mullahs, felt an internal threat, from a popular man, who defended national rights, not only in the country, but everywhere in the Middle East, even on the battlefields, where Iran was fighting for its enemies, as recently in Syria. This man had as his vision and ideology, not the Islamic religious perception and worldview of the mullahs, but a connoisseur of the history of the Persian nation, with an imperial past, which must remain alive in the nation and a compass of geostrategic aspirations. This man, considered that he had to fight for the vision of the Persian nation, acting not only as a soldier, but also as a diplomat, many times autonomously, other times completely alone, perhaps in some cases without the approval of the theocratic regime. Thus, the popular leader, who was "sanctified" by the people, became outside the theocratic system of governance, therefore now constituting a direct danger to the regime. For the Iranians, this man was Major General Qasem Soleimani. Thus, his assassination by the US was, so to speak, his necessary sacrifice by the Iranian regime (with Soleimani's favorite system of authorized "proxy powers", the US) and the relief and elimination of the mullahs' fears of this dangerous political opponent, if he attempted to politicize his action and popularity, therefore it was a gain for the theocratic regime. And always in crises, the people rally around their leadership, although here the developments are different.

The "Heretical" Scenario.

The Middle East is full of political activism, unholy friendships and alliances, bottomless and unquenchable hatred, religious confrontations, conspiracies and a sequence of incredible events, so that the improbable becomes possible and the possible becomes improbable. After the first shock of the assassination of Soleimani, Iran vowed revenge, and indeed such that it would make the US bitterly regret its action. In fact, Soleimani's daughter promised in front of her father's coffin to retaliate with dozens of coffins of American soldiers. And Iran retaliated for the assassination by launching 22 missiles against two American bases in Iraq, five days after Soleimani's assassination and at the exact same time of the execution. One base that was hit was in Erbil and the other was Ain al-Assad, from where the drones that executed the general took off. The result of these attacks was that there were no casualties on purpose. The aim was to prevent the crisis from getting out of control. In fact, both Iraqi sources and those of the Swiss Embassy in Baghdad revealed from the beginning that they had been informed about the attacks an hour in advance. Recently, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami, confirmed: “We wanted to show that we can hit any point we choose,” recalling that the airstrikes were carried out in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. He clarified that Iran’s goal was not to “kill enemy soldiers.”

Thus, it seems that despite the concerns and analyses of various parties, the crisis will not escalate, since both the US and Iran are demonstrating self-restraint at this stage. These events have led some analysts from the Middle East to estimate that a secret agreement was reached between the US and Iran to neutralize a troublesome person for both sides. Thus, reliable sources say, the Soleimani stigma (time, place, means) was given internally by Iran and the Americans took advantage of the opportunity. But is it possible, some will wonder? Of course, in politics, anything can happen, as long as goals and aspirations are served. And this, the heretical scenario, seems very attractive to be possible. And because it is the Middle East, this scenario is strengthened. And what happens next, someone will wonder. But of course, since they agreed to this extreme scenario, why not agree to resume talks and reach a new agreement! Unlikely? We said, in the Middle East the improbable becomes possible.

General Soleimani was never wanted, was not on any terrorist list of the US or any other country, was not hiding, appeared publicly, traveled to various countries, without restrictions, in his official capacity and even in his uniform. He was not the "monster" as President Trump called him, since no evidence or accusations had been announced for his participation in terrorist acts. In his interviews, Soleimani said that the eternal enemy of Shiite Iran was Sunni Islam, with the Wahhabis, Salafists, etc. The US and Israel were for Soleimani the adversaries. That is why he fought with fury, the jihadists and especially ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Whether he had committed illegal acts, only the International Court of Justice could decide, if he had been indicted. American director Michael Moore wrote on Twitter: "Remind me. Which Americans did Soleimani kill? I know, it's embarrassing, to tell some truths and ask these questions, so I'll continue: Can anyone name a building in the US that the "bad guy" General Soleimani gave the order to blow up? I'm in despair that I can't remember which of Soleimani's "kamikazes" entered the Mall of America? Or was it Trump Tower? Damn, someone help me... ".

Epilogue

The action of the Americans is unique, unprecedented, illegal and opens dangerous paths. The execution of an institutional leader, or an agent of a country and not an illegal organization, is not allowed even in the case of war between countries. The execution of an institutional leader of an independent country is a cause for war. See how World War I began. With his action and popularity, Soleimani had begun to be considered a new Mohammad Mossadegh (1882-1967), Prime Minister of Iran (1951-1953), an incorruptible and charismatic leader, committed to the principle of constitutional government, an ardent supporter of Iran's independence from the influence of the great powers, through the doctrine of "negative balance". Mossadegh supported the view that the Shah should have a role along the lines of the Belgian or British monarchy, taking away his basic powers, a large part of his wealth, distributing it to the people, making him an enemy. He nationalized oil and was eventually overthrown by secret political actions by England and the United States, which had lost vital interests in Iran, thus satisfying the Shah with an annoying and hostile prime minister. The case of Soleimani has many similarities to Mossadegh. Annoying and dangerous for both the United States and the Iranian regime. Both unpopular leaders enjoyed the love of the people and the hatred of the authorities and the great powers. One was overthrown, sentenced to three years in prison for treason, and then lived under house arrest until his death. The other was sentenced to death and executed by an American drone attack at Baghdad airport. And everyone involved was happy. Everything was going well, until the incredible happened. On the night of the Iranian missile attack on the American bases, a Ukrainian Boeing civilian aircraft was accidentally shot down, as Iran officially admitted, with 176 dead. So the situation could change and deviate from the “original plans”, which had their starting point in the “Suleimani sacrifice”. What would follow would be the start of talks, resulting in a new agreement between the US and Iran, a “Win-Win” agreement for both sides. Will the original plan be followed, or will we have other uncontrolled developments? We will find out soon.

Sources: Al Arabya, Greek Media, Abrahamian, Ervand. A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge University

* Ioannis Athan. Baltzoi is a Lieutenant General (ret.), former Defense Attaché in Tel Aviv, former ECMM Operations Officer in the Bosnian War, a graduate of the Tactical Intelligence School (US Army), with a Master's Degree (M.Sc.) in Geopolitical Analysis, Geostrategic Composition and Defense and International Law Studies from the National Kapodistrian University of Athens, member of the Board of Directors of the Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies (ELISME).