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PALESTINE IN TWO

Lieutenant General D. LAKAFOSIS

Sporadic clashes between Hamas and Fatah in the Palestinian unity government have never reached the intensity of the latest armed conflict on June 13, 2007. Hamas attacks Fatah in the Gaza Strip. It seizes Fatah headquarters, the presidential compound, public buildings and arrests Fatah officials. Frustrated and fearful for the future, Palestinians in Gaza try to flee to the West Bank. Toll: 100 and more people have lost their lives.

Hamas is completely in control of the entire Gaza Strip. Palestinian Authority President Abbas has dissolved the unity government, in which Hamas had a majority, and has appointed Finance Minister Salam Fayyad as prime minister of the new emergency government, promising to hold elections in due course (those who did not want the January 2006 elections, which were premature and brought Hamas to power, are now being vindicated). Former Prime Minister Haniya declares that his government is not dead and is operating from Gaza, and proposes the re-formation of a unity government with conditions, which Abbas has so far rejected. The US and Israel were surprised by the rapid collapse of Fatah, despite military aid and advice. Fatah is numerically superior, but Hamas is better equipped and organized. Israel did not get involved in the clashes in Gaza. It will retaliate if provoked.

Two-Speed ​​Politics, Two Entities, Two Territories in one Palestine and one Palestinian People.

Palestine is now divided in two. The West Bank is controlled by Fatah and Gaza by Hamas. But what is Hamas's goal? Power? The destruction of Israel? Or peace for the Palestinians?

The US and EU support Abbas, the legitimate leader of the Palestinian Authority. They intend to lift the economic blockade they had imposed on the unity government and strengthen the new Fatah government, without Hamas.

Russia states that dialogue, based on the Mecca Agreement that resulted in a Hamas-Fatah unity government in March 2007, is the way out of the current crisis.

Israel aims to support Abbas' new Fatah government in the West Bank. To pay the customs taxes owed on Palestinian goods only to Fatah in the West Bank (Two million in the West Bank and 1,5 million Palestinians in Gaza).

The Arab League gives a vote of confidence to Abbas, who is legitimately in power. But it calls for a return to the situation before Hamas took control of Gaza.

The Strategy of "Separation"

The US and Israel, now, both to contain the situation in Palestine and to limit the impact of Hamas’s latest victory against the moderates supported by the West, are looking for new prospects. It is promoting a new policy of “separation” with the strengthening of Abbas and Fatah in the West Bank and the compression of Hamas in Gaza. Conducting negotiations between Israel and Abbas for a Palestinian state on temporary borders in most of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, marginalizing and leaving Gaza for another time. The main goal is to become a successful model of a new Palestine in the West Bank that could somehow attract the Palestinians of Gaza and increase Fatah’s ability to win in future elections. To do this, however, Abbas and Fatah need financial assistance and increased equipment.

But, like all grandiose ideas for solutions in the region, this one has its pitfalls:

In practice, there is a relative diplomatic weakening of Abbas. Of course, he is the elected president of the entire Palestinian people and has the legal authority to negotiate on behalf of all of Palestine the peace of the two-state solution that he seeks (or perhaps now of one and a half states?)

It is an exaggeration to imagine that Abbas could accept, as is proposed, that the Western financial aid that has been suspended so far and the customs taxes owed by Israel on Palestinian goods be given only to the Palestinians of the West Bank. The inhabitants of Gaza must also be given the opportunity to decide in future elections for a better Palestinian future. It is not possible for Abbas to stop refusing, as he has done so far, a Palestinian state with temporary borders.

The possibility of Hamas expanding the conflicts to the West Bank is small. Fatah is dominant in the West Bank for the most part and there is also an Israeli military occupation force. However, it is not ruled out that Hamas will try to create a situation in the West Bank similar to the current situation in Iraq and Somalia, with anti-occupation suicide attacks. In a possible attempt by Hamas to mitigate the effects of isolation, since it will have, as expected, closed borders with Israel, it may seek open borders with Egypt. However, Egypt's stance is doubtful since Hamas is supported by the "Muslim Brotherhood" of the Egyptian opposition. In any case, Hamas's dominance in Gaza constitutes a threat to Israel, as happened with Hezbollah on the other side in South Lebanon. Israel proposes sending a peacekeeping force to the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent weapons from entering Hamas. In general, the issue of sending a peacekeeping force to Palestine is old, without being officially discussed due to disagreements. Moreover, the Israel-Hamas rapprochement is something inconceivable, since Hamas now accuses Fatah of this and Israel has labeled Hamas an extremist organization.

The underlying causes of the current crisis in Palestine are not conjunctural but generative. Poverty, isolation, the Palestinian people's disappointment with the future, old hatreds, and mistaken policies may have contributed to the current climax of the crisis. However, despite the ominous outlook, politicians can still influence developments.

Chaos in the Middle East

The Palestinian issue is an integral part of the entire Middle East problem. The crisis in one region of the Middle East affects and is affected by the situation in another.

In Beirut, we recently had the 7th ^political victim since the assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri in 2005. A politician was murdered just two days after the establishment of the international tribunal for the assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri, with Syria being implicated. The murdered politician belonged to the anti-Syrian faction of the Lebanese Parliament, which supports the international tribunal. In addition, we also have the most severe violence since the 1975-90 civil war between extremist Islamist rebels and the Lebanese army, with 162 young people – 73 soldiers, 52 rebels and 32 civilians. The rebels, who have split from the pro-Syrian Fatah al Islam group, are inside the Nahr al Bared Palestinian refugee camp north of Beirut, and the Lebanese army is fighting them from the outskirts of the camp. There are concerns that the unrest could spread to the 12 similar camps in Lebanon, which are off-limits to the army under the 1969 Arab Peace Accords.

In Iraq, violence between Shiites, Sunni insurgents and Al Qaeda supporters continues unabated. The new strategy for Iraq has not yet yielded results, which is expected after September 2007. The recent regional meeting in Baghdad on Iraqi security, as well as the first official meeting of Iraqi and US representatives on the same issue in many years, were described "diplomatically" as a positive step. The latest reinforcements have recently arrived, bringing the US force to 160.000, while losses have reached 3.500 and more since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Turkey's recent provocations to invade northern Iraq against the Kurds of the PKK threaten the relative calm in the only region of Iraq.

Chaos reigns in the Middle East from Gaza to Beirut and Baghdad. It therefore seems that the curse of adventures, which has tormented the region for many years, will continue for some time.