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Photo source: Ta NEA.

After the intervention of DELTA FORCE in Venezuela the day before yesterday, which resulted in the arrest of dictator Maduro, I read right and left that all this happened because the US needs Venezuela's oil reserves, as a result of the continuous increase in competition between the great powers of the planet. But is this how things are or do those who write and support this view simply see only what appears and not what is really happening? We will give the answer below. Here I should note that I have written many times both in my published analyses in print and electronic media, as well as in my posts on my personal Facebook, that the Objective Purpose or, in the most military sense, the US AN.SK. is the final confrontation with China, either economically, or militarily, or the gradual combination of both. But let's put things in order.

The doctrine of double restraint.

For a year now, that is, since 1/20/2025, the date that Mr. Donald Trump officially assumed the leadership of the United States, we have seen a change in the doctrine followed by the United States, regarding the exercise of its foreign policy in relation to Russia and China. The United States, under the administration of Democrats and John Biden, followed the doctrine of the so-called "dual containment", that is, the simultaneous confrontation with Russia and China, with the aim of the ultimate dominance of the United States as the sole superpower on the planet. Essentially, this was the response of the United States to both, to the effort that the BRICS had begun, to dedollarize the planet. The aim of this effort was to hurt the United States economy, since the world would use a new currency that the BRICS had announced that they would create, a currency that ultimately only existed on paper. Another aggressive economic move that China made to hurt Washington's economy was to buy as many American bonds as it could, with the aim of making the US its "economic hostage" in the future, something it initially succeeded in doing, but eventually in the midst of the Pandemic, and a little later, the US managed to "recover" this situation and thus be exposed to a small degree to Chinese sentiments.

Is the doctrine of dual containment the first time we encounter it, as a basic goal of US foreign policy? The answer is no. Bill Clinton was the first to formulate it, what a coincidence again from the Democrats, but then the conditions were completely different and this for three reasons. 1. Because this particular doctrine concerned the dual containment of Iraq and Iran. 2. Russia was emerging from the dissolution of the USSR and was trying to close its internal wounds and was in the antechamber of NATO, while China did NOT yet exist as a superpower in the geopolitical game, because it could not technologically and militarily support something like this. 3. The third and in my opinion the most important reason, which is interrelated with the second, was because at that time the Shanghai Cooperation Organization did NOT exist, which, as I have written in the past in my articles, is the military arm of the BRICS and in a way a counterweight to NATO. So then it was possible to do something like this. Today, with a strong Russia and a China that has made technological leaps, the doctrine of dual containment is simply NOT possible.

First phase of de-Chineseization of the Panama Canal.

US President Donald Trump, realizing this inability to implement the dual containment, moved quickly to change it and posed China as the only threat to US interests, but also to its overall national security. Those who have read the United States National Security Strategy 2025, will find that the US has entered a process of de-Chineseization of the planet. In what way? 1. On 12/22/2024 and before he even officially assumed the presidency of the US, Mr. Trump makes his first public intervention, when Panama tried to impose an increase in transit fees through the canal area. At that time, the still newly elected President Trump stated: "If the canal falls into the wrong hands, we will take control." Alluding to China, this is because, since 1996, a Hong Kong-based company, more specifically Hutchison, has controlled the two ports of the canal and therefore the passage of commercial ships. These ports are on the Atlantic, Cristobal, and on the Pacific, Balboa. In fact, at that time there was a rumor that Panama wanted to extend the contract with the Chinese group, which essentially caused Trump's reaction. 2. Three months later, specifically on 5/3/2025, and while the future of the Chinese in the two ports had not yet been clarified, the American president made another impressive move, asking the American Pentagon to submit to him "credible military options", leaving open the possibility of direct military intervention in the region, with the aim of the US taking control of the maritime trade channel and ensuring unhindered US access to the Panama Canal. 3. A few days later, on 14/3/2025, the agreement comes between Hutchison and the American consortium BlackRock, Global Infrastructure Partners and Terminal Investment Limited, for the acquisition of the two ports, for the sum of 22,8 billion dollars and thus the US president "closes" the first cycle of weakening China, but essentially opening the economic war with it.

Second phase of de-Chineseization, with Russia – Iran.

The second phase of the "war" with China was transferred to Eurasian territory and to two different countries, under two different pretexts. The first country is Ukraine, which, after the Alaska summit, was given the role of "Iphigenia", giving Russia what it asked for in the field and even more, since Russia, after almost four years of war, has NOT managed to fully fulfill the ANSK, which it had set, for the complete control of eastern Ukraine and essentially the control of its rich subsoil. Another thing that was agreed upon between Russia and the USA in Alaska, is the overseas exploitation of the rich subsoil in natural gas, oil, but mainly in rare earths, of the Arctic Circle. The goal of the above, for Washington, is to detach Russia from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and thus achieve the complete weakening of this military coalition and ultimately of China. The second country that was the target of the US is Iran. There, Washington acted in two ways, a direct military strike and a hybrid attack. In the first, we had the joint military operation with Israel, where they bombed the uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons production plants, see bombs, of the Iranian Regime. The second operation, the so-called hybrid, has been underway for a few days, since we are witnessing scattered uprisings in Iranian territory. These uprisings took place due to Tehran's serious economic problems, I remind you that a few days ago Iran imposed Capital Controls, which led to the uprising of the citizens. This uprising, it is more than certain, will be exploited by the secret services and will be constantly incited, with the aim of creating unbearable pressure on the Mullahs' regime, forcing them to dynamically suppress the uprising, thus causing loss of life and a resurgence of demonstrations against the regime, this is called a popular uprising, which will certainly lead to the violation of the international factor and thus under the weight of both the Persian people and the International Community, the Tehran regime will be forced to withdraw, with the return of the Shah's successors being considered certain, since when their father ruled, Persia was an American protectorate.

Third phase of de-Chineseization. Venezuela.

Here things are purely integrated within the framework of the Alaska agreement and we will see why right away. Venezuela was not exemplified by Panama's compliance, because it believed that the protection it enjoyed from both China and Russia was sufficient for it and thus did NOT stop its trade transactions with China. As we said above, an economic war has been going on between Washington and Beijing for a year. Venezuela is also part of this economic war. As is widely known, in order for an economy to move and grow, in addition to raw materials, it also needs a driving force and the driving force is oil. At the moment, the country with the richest oil reserves in its subsoil is Venezuela. According to relevant estimates, the oil reserves of the Central American country's subsoil are approximately 300-303 billion barrels!!! Here, those who see the issue of the American intervention superficially argue that America intervened to get its hands on these reserves for its own benefit. But is this true? The answer is categorically no. The US has for many years taken care to be energy self-sufficient, to ensure its economic development, but it has also gone one step further, securing its critical reserves, which are for military use, during a period of long-term operations. Therefore, the argument that the superpower is getting its hands on Caracas' energy reserves for its own direct benefit is defeated at its source.

But what is the real reason that Washington "decapitated" the communist regime in Caracas? For some time now, the so-called American deep state has known that the main importer of oil produced by Venezuela was Beijing, which was a source of danger for American national security. To stop this, the American president initially gave dictator Nicolas Maduro an opportunity to leave the country, without "exploding a capsule" as is commonly called, which Maduro ultimately did not do and thus came the intervention of DELTA FORCE, with the well-known results. In this way, the American factor gains control over both extraction and therefore the formation of the global selling price, as well as which countries Venezuela will export oil to, which was the main issue. The only thing that is certain is that among these countries, China will NOT be there, or at least China will NOT have the preferential treatment, in terms of the quantities of oil, that it had before.

Conclusions.

1. For the past year, the conduct of American foreign policy has made a 180-degree turn.^ο and from the doctrine of "dual containment" it has moved to the Trump Doctrine, which says: "China must be stopped no matter the cost", meaning that China must be stopped, whatever the cost.
2. The different way of dealing with Panama compared to Venezuela shows us the way in which the exercise of foreign policy will move from both pillars that exercise it, namely the US Department of State and the War Department, as Trump renamed the Department of Defense. That is, whoever cooperates and complies with the initial US instructions will be treated like Panama and whoever does not will be treated like Venezuela or even worse.
3. The de-Chinaization of the planet – the US-China economic war – has just begun and will not stop in Panama or Venezuela. Other countries where Chinese interests exist will follow.
4. I estimate that sooner or later, what happened in Panama and Venezuela, namely that they were initially asked in an awkward manner to sever economic relations with China, will also be asked of our country, because let's not forget that the Chinese COSCO owns 67% of the PPA. Therefore, the Greek Government would do well to start thinking now about how to disengage itself from the Chinese factor in the port of Piraeus, so as not to find itself faced with faits accomplis, not of the Maduro type, but of other external intervention, such as, for example, economic suffocation, through rating agencies, as happened in the recent economic past of our country, which we have all experienced.

Athanasios I. Demetriades.

Member of the Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies

(ELISM).