The collapse and partition of Turkey seem inevitable.
Turkey is on the rise. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump is paying off, as the Trump administration seeks to expedite the sale of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to Turkey . The Turkish arms industry, run by the president’s son-in-law, reverse-engineers military technology and makes billions of dollars, often selling drones and other weapons to some of the world’s most hated regimes.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Turkish-backed rebel group that toppled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024, now rules the country. While Syria has historically posed a threat to Turkey—the two countries nearly went to war in 1997—Turkey is now the dominant diplomatic and economic power in Syria. From the reconstruction of Syria alone, Turkish companies controlled by Erdogan’s friends are expected to earn billions of dollars in contracts.
Domestically, Erdogan’s imprisoning of his main opponents without consequences makes him feel powerful. Completing his apparent triumph is the fact that, after years of bombing, Turkey has also forced the Kurds to accept a ceasefire and lay down their weapons.
Appearances can be deceiving. While Erdogan may fancifully imagine himself as a sultan restoring the Ottoman Empire, Turks will likely remember him as the man whose arrogance led to the country’s downfall. With inflation at a high level and the Turkish currency plummeting, Turkish prosperity is an illusion. Just as Iran’s standard of living fell far more than its peers after the Islamic Revolution, Erdogan’s slow Islamic Revolution will mark the collapse of the Turkish middle class.
Consider: While Trump may be able to pressure Congress to approve the sale of America’s most advanced fighter jet, Erdogan’s single-minded focus on Trump at the expense of Congress has eroded Turkey’s influence in Washington. After the New York Mayor Eric Adams fiasco , many politicians believe that confronting the Turks is simply too dangerous. While the Turkish Caucus in Congress once numbered a few hundred members, it now sits at just a third of that number.
Trump may be holding US-Turkish relations together for now, but the mutual interests on which the bilateral ties were built have collapsed. Turkey’s brand is toxic. Neither Republicans nor Democrats will rally to defend it.
Turkey’s bet on Syria will backfire. Undoubtedly, every country that has empowered Islamists abroad as a foreign policy tool has suffered, with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Syria being the most notable examples. Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sarrah, is already failing, but the extremists Erdogan has empowered will terrorize the region, including Turkey, for decades.
Turkey’s victory over the Kurds was also Pyrrhic. Erdogan has sought to humiliate the Kurds and has refused to negotiate a meaningful peace since the ceasefire took effect. As the Turkish-backed Syrian government seeks their elimination, they have nowhere to go but to the mountains of Turkey or the urban slums of Istanbul. When the battle resumes, perhaps with the Kurds enjoying foreign aid, its center will be in Turkey itself. The calm that Turkey has enjoyed for years, if not decades, will end.
Yet it is Turkey’s embrace of Hamas that is the tipping point. Erdogan’s strong advocacy of Palestinian independence sets a precedent that will backfire on Turkey itself. Does he call Hamas terrorism legitimate? By analogy, then, Kurdish terrorism would be the same. Does he support independence despite recognized borders? By the same token, the United States, Israel, and the growing number of Arab countries upset by Erdogan’s interference in their affairs could recognize Kurdish independence, drawing the map as they see fit. Turkey’s objections may not matter.
The Palestinian and Kurdish cases are not entirely analogous: There are 5 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, but at least five times as many Kurds in Turkey.
When Erdogan leaves office, he will leave behind a country crumbling on its weakened foundations. A strong successor is unlikely to emerge, so when the Kurds exploit the Palestinian precedent, the Turks will have a hard time preventing partition. Indeed, if Ankara complains, the Kurds will simply demand a referendum, the result of which will confirm that a unified Turkey is as outdated as a united Yugoslavia.
Ο Michael Rubin is columnist on Beltway Confidential of Washington Examiner. It's made of director analysis on Middle East Forum and higher partner on American Enterprise Institute.