Ioannis Baltzoi*: Turkey: The Most Critical Elections – What It Means, What Will HappenRecep Tayyip Erdogan: "L'État, c'est moi"-The Sultan with Superpowers!
THE NEW ATATURK
A popular Turkish humor website, Zaytung, which publishes “news” with the tagline “Honest, Impartial, Immoral News,” published an article titled “The Presidential System Affects Fenerbahçe,” the popular Istanbul football team, of which President Erdogan is a fan. The article stated that in the latest presidential decree signed by President Erdogan, he ultimately dictates to Fenerbahçe that from now on the team should appear on the field with one defensive midfielder, instead of two, up until now, with an obvious humorous mood and to demonstrate that President Erdogan has an opinion on everything and will intervene with presidential decrees on everything, even on matters of tactics of a football team.
Erdogan has been ruling Turkey for about 16 years, but for him, that is not enough. In the double elections of June 24, 2018 (presidential and parliamentary), after winning the presidency and a parliamentary majority with the cooperation of his AKP party with the far-right MHP party, he essentially transformed Turkey's parliamentary system into an executive presidential system, with almost no checks and balances. Erdogan is undoubtedly the most popular, but also the most divisive leader in modern Turkish history. He has already dominated the country longer than Mustafa Kemal, the founder of modern, secular Turkey, the so-called Ataturk (father of the Turks). In 2023, when his presidential term ends, Erdogan will have ruled Turkey for 21 years, compared to Mustafa Kemal's 15, so he will become the new Ataturk and a much better one than the original. And in 2023, Erdogan will be running again for another five-year term. And who doubts that he will not win again, when so far in 14 electoral contests he is the absolute dominant and winner?
THE NEW GOVERNMENT
Erdogan, a de facto Sultan, is the head of the executive branch and appoints cabinet members as he wishes, even from outside parliament. He has the exclusive authority to issue presidential decrees, which have the force of law, while he himself will be able to select and appoint the leadership of the judiciary.
The country is now run by him, with the help of 16 ministries, 9 committees and 4 special offices established under the new system. The Constitution is essentially abolished, as is the separation of powers, while there is no institutional control over the actions and powers of the super-president. Erdogan's new cabinet consists mainly of newcomers and not necessarily politicians. Among them are four businessmen. Specifically, a travel agent, as Minister of Tourism, a college owner as Minister of Education, a businessman as Minister of Commerce and a hospital owner as Minister of Health, all friends and supporters of President Erdogan. Most of the other new ministers are basically technocrats.
Only two key cabinet positions remained unchanged. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu retained their portfolios, since they are two people of absolute trust and close circle to Erdogan. Cavusoglu, on the other hand, has acted more as a "secretary" and proxy of the president than as a foreign policy minister and will obviously continue to do so. On the other hand, Soylu, the AKP's deputy chairman, is considered a "hawk" in the war against the Kurdish PKK, as well as the Syrian Kurds (YPG). Together with the head of the Military Gendarmerie (Jandarma) General Arif Cetin, they conducted two military operations (the "Euphrates Shield" in 2016 and "Olive Branch" in 2018) against the Syrian Kurds, invading, occupying and occupying territories in Northern Syria. The operations were considered successful, since Syrian territories were occupied in the region of Jarablus and in the Kurdish canton of Afrin in Northern Syria, with minimal losses for Turkey, for reasons other than the military skill and capability of the Turkish Armed Forces, but they are not of the present. Thus, maintaining Soylu in his position and appointing former Chief of General Staff General Hulusi Akar as Minister of Defense expresses the will and continuation of Erdogan's aggressive policy against the Kurds in Syria.
Erdogan is now head of state, government and ruling party, controlling all three branches of government. In a recent article in the Israeli Think Tank BESA, Ankara-based journalist Burak Bekdil discusses Erdogan’s superpowers in detail, surprising the extent of the new president, Sultan Erdogan. The new system grants the head of state terrifying superpowers that no Turkish leader has ever had before. Not even the country’s founder, Mustafa Kemal. In this system, there is no prime minister, an institution that has existed for over a thousand years in the country’s governance system, from the Seljuk era, to the Ottoman era and to the Republic era since 1923, and the role of the cabinet in governing the country is changing and being downgraded. He will head, in addition to the cabinet, a number of presidential councils that will recommend state policy on science, technology and innovation, education, the economy, security and foreign policy, justice, • culture and the arts, health and food safety, social policies, as well as • local administration. He will also be responsible for national heritage, the Armed Forces, the defense industry, religious affairs, the multi-billion dollar government treasury, the National Security Council, the State Inspection Council and the Communications Directorate.
But that's not enough. It may sound like a joke, but the Turkish president will also have the power to set the prices of pharmaceutical products, as well as fines for motorists who drive without winter tires on snowy roads. He will have the authority to inspect and enforce flight bans and determine rates for vehicle inspections, appoint members of road safety councils, decide on investment incentives and determine the locations of free trade zones!!
In addition, Erdogan will have the exclusive authority to appoint the chairmen and members of the Directorate of Religious Affairs, the Council of Higher Education, universities, the National University Examination Board, the state broadcaster TRT, the National Intelligence Organization, the State Inspection Board, members of the Defense Industry, social security institutions, the Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency, the State Statistical Institute, the ministerial inspection boards, the State Residence, the State Patent Office, the Turkish Atomic Energy Organization, regional development agencies and the state research institute TUBITAK. When the website even mentioned Fenerbahce's system and football tactics, which were determined by Erdogan's presidential decree, many considered it to be another humorous article, when in reality it is what is happening in Turkey today and how all-powerful Erdogan is.
EPILOGUE
This Erdogan-inspired administrative model of Turkey, does not resemble the systems of the US and France at all, despite the fact that the controlled systemic Turkish press attempts to propagate it as similar to them. It is clearly an authoritarian-style state governance, which is covered by an electoral democratic cloak, in an electoral process that is controversial by many observers. With two different votes, the first in April 2017 and the second in June 2018, the Turks chose to radically change the existing regime, considering that they are thus advancing the democratic system. They have chosen a strong and all-powerful executive president and a grotesque one-man system of authority, over a parliamentary system with checks and balances. Ironically, we could say that they voted democratically in favor of an undemocratic and authoritarian regime.
These elections revealed what characterizes Turkey today. A heterogeneous, three-part country. On the one hand, Sultan Erdogan, who dominated the entire central Turkey and the popular masses of Muslims, and on the other hand, the secular elite of the large cities, the coasts of Western Turkey, completely different from the large mass of Sunni Muslims, who detest Erdogan and his policies, but cannot do otherwise. And of course, the third part is the Kurds, who distance themselves from the grandiose nationalist visions of the Sultan, still endure, resist and have their own vision: The creation of their Kurdish state. Three worlds, ideologically different and most importantly culturally, and Sultan Erdogan is the sovereign and omnipotent of all.
The vote on June 24th turned Erdogan’s de facto executive presidency into a de jure executive presidency. Erdogan is very happy, as are his loyal followers. One question remains, however, unanswered. What will happen after Erdogan? Who will rule Turkey and how, with such excessive power in his hands? Erdogan himself has no answer to that. Nor can anyone else, as long as Erdogan lives and rules. If something happens to him, then the events and developments for Turkey will be stormy, dangerous and potentially divisive. Until then, Sultan Erdogan, as a modern Louis XIV with arrogance, arrogance, lack of moderation and neo-Ottoman nationalist visions and perceptions, will exclaim at every opportunity: “L’État, c’est moi”.
*Ioannis A. Baltzoi is a retired General and Geopolitical Analyst, Diploma from the Tactical Intelligence School (US Army), holder of a Master's Degree (M.Sc.) in Geopolitical Analysis-Geostrategic Synthesis from the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens, Member of the Board of Directors of the Hellenic Institute for Strategic Studies (ELISME).