Ioannis Baltzoi: ISRAEL VS IRAN. THE CONFLICT THAT COULD BECOME DANGEROUS
Surely those who do not know the incredible world of the Middle East estimate that the war in Syria is coming to an end, that talks will begin on the future of this long-suffering country and that the evil is ending. And the future in the region is predicted to be at least a little better than today. They are unable to believe that it could become worse than what it is today. And yet the war may not only not be coming to an end, but the current situation may portend worse situations.
Iran's projection of power in Syria and the de facto The creation of the Shiite axis from Tehran to Beirut, combined with the complete dominance of Russia west of the Euphrates in Syria and its allies Iran and Hezbollah, created concern and activated the reflexes of regional powers in the region, especially the two allies and now main pillars of American foreign policy in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and especially Israel, with worrying developments.
ISRAELI REVELATIONS ABOUT IRAN
Israel, bordering Syria, considers that its national security is at stake with the geopolitical developments in the region and should ensure it, by informing, taking measures and even taking military action. The recent accusations of Prime Minister Netanyahu (30/4) against Iran, created a sensation and unrest in the international community. The Israeli Prime Minister spoke of a huge volume of secret documents, which recently came into Israel's possession, as part of a secret operation by the Israeli intelligence services and prove, according to Mr. Netanyahu, that Iran - while it had claimed the opposite - had violated the Agreement (JCPOA), on its nuclear program and had developed a secret program to create nuclear weapons. Mr. Netanyahu considered the successful operation by the Israeli intelligence services, in which Israel seized approximately 100.000 Iranian documents, proving Iran's guilt, a very important achievement. The presentation took place in a room where behind the Israeli prime minister, the space was filled with "stacks of files" and hundreds of CD, which according to the Israeli prime minister contained all the evidence.
In a statement a day later, the White House said that the information released by Israel regarding Iran’s nuclear program included “new and interesting details” about Tehran’s efforts to develop nuclear missiles. In fact, even President Trump stated that, “The Israeli Prime Minister's speech showed that the American President was 100% right to criticize the Iran nuclear deal.". The Israeli Prime Minister immediately informed and spoke personally with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the information he revealed.
DISPUTES
From the Iranian side, we had immediate reactions. Iranian officials strongly criticized the Israeli prime minister's presentation of Iran's development of nuclear weapons, describing it as "childish" and "ridiculous." Of course, Iran's reactions were expected and we will not dwell on his accusations. But here the question arises: Is the Israeli prime minister right and did Israel's intelligence services really collect 100.000 documents in less than three years since the historic Iran nuclear deal (July 2015), which prove Iran's secret nuclear weapons program? And why has no intelligence agency in the world been able to find anything? For the sake of objectivity, let's examine some cases where there is doubt, since it seems that it has not managed to convince everyone. In a statement, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, said that the Israeli Prime Minister's presentation would be assessed. "At present, I have not seen from Mr. Netanyahu any arguments about Iran's non-compliance, that is, about Iran's violation of its nuclear commitments under the nuclear agreement.", said Ms. Mogherini. And in Israel, Don Henin, a member of parliament from the Israeli Arab coalition Joint List, described Mr. Netanyahu's presentation as "election speech, commenting, among other things, that "A leader accused of corruption (Netanyahu) tried to convince another leader accused of corruption (Trump) to reignite a firestorm, the cost of which will be paid by the people who live here."
And the disputes continue on the other side of the Atlantic. Reliable websites, such as Moon of Alabama, report that what Mr. Netanyahu presented was not based on substantial information from Israeli intelligence, but most likely on data provided by Iran to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), during the period of implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. According to Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in the field of nuclear non-proliferation and director of the Middlebury Institute of International Affairs, USA, “"All the graphics, images and technical details presented by Mr. Netanyahu were known to the IAEA and the negotiators of the Iran deal. The story the Israelis provide to explain how they have access to the files does not fit the content of the 'highly theatrical' presentation." According to the "revelations" of an Israeli agent who spoke anonymously to the New York Times, the Israeli intelligence services (Mossad) had discovered in 2016 the building complex in Tehran where the Iranians kept all the archival material for their secret nuclear weapons program and had been "closely monitoring" it since then. This archival material was recovered after a secret Israeli operation in January 2018 from the building in question. Regarding this operation, Esfandiar Badmangelici, a political scientist at the University Columbia, reveals that the files were originally in the building that the Israelis mentioned, but in the summer of 2017, the Iranians moved them to another building in Tehran, so the Israeli operation took place in the original building and not in the new one where the files were moved. Obviously, something is wrong here and some people are lying. It is estimated that in the near future we will learn more about what happened and what the value of this material is, that is, if it is indeed significant evidence of Iran's secret program, with the ultimate goal of building an atomic bomb as Israel claims, or if the evidence is old and of course known.
GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
Regardless of what will be revealed later, geopolitical developments in the region are rapid and here we will focus our attention, namely, on the geostrategic aspirations of Israel, which, as we mentioned above, its national defense and security constitute the primary and cornerstone of its national high strategy. Iran, according to Israel, has always been the state that plots against its national existence and is its greatest enemy. Iran is, after Russia, the strategic ally of the Assad regime, and the Syrian operational theater has become the main front of Tehran's entire regional strategy, since Iranian military forces are in Syria, alongside their allies, Russia, Syria and Hezbollah in the battle against the jihadists and beyond. The Israelis believe that Iran has now reached its own backyard, it is located a few dozen kilometers from its borders, so the danger is now real, and must be addressed immediately. This projection of Iranian power in Syria, along with its ally, Israel's other enemy, Hezbollah of Lebanon, is the biggest geopolitical problem and threat for Israel. In fact, the de facto The creation of the famous Shiite axis, with a typical example being the large highway Tehran, Baghdad, Al-Bukamal (on the Syria-Iraq border), Palmyra, Damascus, Beirut, has upset neighboring states, most notably Israel and Saudi Arabia, for different reasons, but common goals.
Israel is known to have no limits, obsessions, or prejudices when it comes to national strategy and its defense and security. It is capable of "making an alliance with the devil" as long as it ensures the highest good of its national security, by applying the part political in all its dimensions, constituting a model of high international policy for many and of course for us. And it will use every means and every possibility. Until a few years ago, Saudi Arabia was considered to be at the top (along with Iran) of the pyramid of Israel's enemies. However, the data and developments are now shaping a new political situation, which imposes an alliance with the enemy, which Israeli pragmatists are exploiting for their national aspirations.
And Saudi Arabia, the leading power of the Sunni Arab world and in perpetual rivalry and constant enmity with the leading power of the Shiite world, Iran (Iranians are not Arabs, they are Persians), believed that the greatest enemy of the Arab world, the "Zionist formation", as Israel was called, could and should become the best ally, since Israel also agrees that the common enemy is now Iran and must be faced with alliances, since their interests in the region are now common. Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, King Salman's favorite son, a pragmatic and visionary new leader, does not hesitate to make once impermissible, but today necessary alliances with the enemy, to confront the new reality, the common enemy, Shiite Iran.
ESTIMATES – EPILOGUE
Israel today, with increased American support, does not hesitate to carry out solitary airstrikes in Syria, where it considers its enemy, Iran and Hezbollah, to be. Since the beginning of the war in Syria, it is estimated that Israel has carried out over 120 airstrikes in Syria against Iran and Hezbollah, Iran's ally and representative in Lebanon and an enemy of Israel. A day before Netanyahu's revelations about the "secret Iranian program", the Israeli air force bombed targets (Iranian and Hezbollah) in Syria and, as always, did not admit or deny.
The Israeli Prime Minister, implementing a smart international denunciation policy, targeted Iran and mobilized the international political scene, regardless of whether the information he presented is true or not, old or new. Israel denounced Iran as a liar, violating the international agreements it has signed and secretly and in violation continues its illegal activities in the nuclear program to build an atomic bomb, so the danger is not only for Israel, but also for the entire world. This gives Israel the advantage of getting out of the frame of attention and denunciations (Palestinian, bombings in Syria, etc.) and turning international attention to its great enemy, Iran. It also offers arguments to the US president to implement his threat to withdraw from the Agreement (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program, as both Israel and Saudi Arabia fervently desire.
But as effective as this policy is, it can also become dangerous and trigger worse situations. According to the assessments of Israeli intelligence services, Tehran will apparently seek a response that makes it clear that it does not overlook the loss of seven members of its Revolutionary Guard in a recent Israeli airstrike on the T4 base in Syria. but for now will not lead to a direct military confrontation with Israel. Iran's military development in Syria remains limited and relatively vulnerable to an Israeli attack. At the same time, Iran's partners in Syria, the Assad regime, Russia and Hezbollah, are not interested in a conflict that could jeopardize the survival of the regime. But the continuous friction and confrontation, and especially if after May 12, 2018, President Trump decides to abandon the Agreement (JCPOA), which France and Europe consider important and the US should not withdraw from, then things may change, and for the worse. Iran, cornered and constantly attacked, may at some point overreact. Having the dominant and victorious power in Syria, Russia, as allies, with Hezbollah and Turkey as allies, can cause an explosion, with the result that the developments will be tragic, since Israel is already a nuclear power and its military power is given and very strong. And as for Russia and its role, it is doubtful whether Moscow can play the role of an honest mediator between the parties, despite Russia's recent convening of Israeli and Iranian officials separately in Sochi, without tangible results. Without such mediation and a logical compromise between the conflicting interests, namely the establishment and projection of Iranian power in Syria, but against Israel's declared will to prevent it, then the prospect of a general flare-up, involving Israel and Iran, will continue to exist and is indeed very likely, and this is what is worrying and very dangerous for peace and security.
Πηγές: Moon of Alabama
Haaretz
The Jerusalem Post
The Times of Israel