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In the light of his own subject, Doctor of International Law and Law of the Sea, Nikolas Ioannidis, explains to "S" the legal framework of the day after a potential conflict, noting characteristically that "the unprovoked and unlawful use of force against an EU member state seems like a senseless step."

"He will not cross the red lines"

The phrase “both in the field of operations and at the negotiating table” summarizes Turkey’s new strategic doctrine from 2016 onwards, according to Brigadier General (retd) and expert on Turkey, Christos Minagias. Turkey “implemented and continues to implement this doctrine primarily in Syria and secondarily in northern Iraq,” he tells “Simerini.” Regarding the threat of a potential heated incident in the EEZ of Greece and Cyprus, the Brigadier General (retd) deems it appropriate to clarify the following in advance:

"First, if Turkey is not 100% sure that it will achieve its intended goal, it will not take any action. And to achieve this, it must have secured, at the very least, the tolerance of the Great Powers.

»Secondly, the threat of using force has to do with Ankara's main objective, which refers to the co-exploitation of the energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean and the division of the Aegean Sea according to the Turkish perception (territorial waters, airspace, etc.).

»Thirdly, the more Ankara finds itself moving away from the negotiating table, the more it increases its aggression.

"Fourth, in addition to military measures, Turkey has prepared corresponding political, economic and legal actions. In fact, as paradoxical as it may seem, let us take into account the consequences of Turkey declaring an EEZ in the Eastern Mediterranean. That is, it will seek to sit at the 'negotiation table' through the 'back door' and not through the 'field of operations'.

"Fifth, the operational areas in the EEZs of Greece and Cyprus are divided into two main categories: the plots where drilling is taking place and will take place and the areas beyond these plots. For the first category of areas, it is estimated that Turkey will be content with statements, announcements and the projection of its reaction with scientific research ships - in this case with the 'Barbaros', accompanied by warships. However, with regard to the areas in the second category, I have doubts as to whether a Great Power will become involved in a heated conflict situation in favor of one side or the other.

"And sixth, it has been proven that Tayyip Erdogan is used to moving on red lines and the cases where he has crossed them are very rare. For this reason, it is very important to be fully aware of the situation, to talk little and do a lot, for populism to completely disappear from national issues and not create phobic syndromes in ourselves. And know something: 'The Turk respects a smart enemy more than a stupid friend, ally or interlocutor.'"

Open possibility of an incident on the ground

The possibility of a heated episode in the Cypriot EEZ or on the territory of the Republic of Cyprus should not be ruled out, F. Klokkaris tells "S", who, assessing the escalation of Turkey's aggression, explains that the aim of such a crisis would be "to disrupt the Republic of Cyprus' energy program, to usurp the natural gas of its EEZ and to cause problems in the strategic partnerships it has developed with its neighboring countries, such as Greece, Israel and Egypt". Compared to the other countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, the retired Lieutenant General notes, "the Republic of Cyprus is more vulnerable due to its small size, its semi-occupation by Turkey, but also due to weaknesses due to its wrong choices, which reduce its deterrent capacity against Turkey".

Despite the positive steps in the energy sector and strategic partnerships with neighboring countries, Mr. Klokkaris identifies “serious weaknesses of the CND in the areas of defense armor and assertive policy.” In this regard, he explains that “it has not entered into strategic alliances, it has not intensified its efforts to revitalize the Doctrine of the Unified Defense Space of Cyprus – Greece, it has neglected to strengthen the combat power of the National Guard on land and above all at sea and in the air.

It has not yet declared the exact boundaries of its EEZ with Turkey based on the median line principle – a gap that Turkey exploits and reacts sluggishly to Turkey's systematic violations of its EEZ," he says, adding that "it should appeal to the UN Security Council, suspend consultations on the Cyprus issue and veto Turkey's accession negotiations." Regarding the scope for an effective response in the event of a heated incident in the Cypriot EEZ, he appears pessimistic:

"It does not have the ability to react dynamically and contain Turkey. It will be limited to actions in the political, diplomatic and legal fields. Its strategic partners are estimated not to intervene militarily, due to the inability of the Republic of Cyprus to effectively exercise the right of self-defense and because their vital interests will not be affected so seriously as to risk a military conflict with Turkey."

The legal "quiver" is not enough

The Cyprus Republic will only have diplomatic and political measures at its disposal if Turkey obstructs its drilling, Dr. N. Ioannides tells "S". "Any obstruction will mean a violation of the exclusive sovereign right of the Cyprus Republic to explore and exploit the natural resources of the continental shelf, in accordance with the 1982 Convention and customary international law. However, in this case Cyprus can only take diplomatic/political measures," he explains.

In the event of a heated incident, he says, "we will have circumvented the cornerstone of the international security system, which prohibits the use of armed force. Such an action is considered aggression and enables the Security Council to take measures against the aggressor state. Furthermore, such an action activates Article 42.7 of the Treaty on the EU, which provides that if a member state is attacked, the other member states must provide assistance by all means at their disposal."

He further explains that "there is no universal enforcement mechanism in international law that punishes wrongdoing states. Sanctions can be imposed by the UN Security Council, the EU and individual states". However, he clarifies that "Turkey has long opposed the resolution of disputes before international judicial mechanisms. It does not recognize the compulsory jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, nor is it a party to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, therefore, it does not fall under the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice. Therefore, there is, in principle, no possibility of recourse against Turkey to any of these courts".

Finally, he notes that no one can predict how things will develop in the Cypriot EEZ, but underlines that "the unprovoked and unlawful use of force against an EU member state seems like a reckless step. Turkey's verbal threats and boasting should be met with calm. The Republic of Cyprus must continue its energy program unwaveringly, using international and EU law in the best possible way. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the National Guard, which will increase the deterrent power of the State and strengthen the already rich legal 'quiver'".

Source: http://www.sigmalive.com/simerini/politics/537962/ti-tha-kanei-i-tourkia-stin-aoz