Moscow’s War in Syria – A Report of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project Edited by Seth G. Jones
This report examines Russia’s military and diplomatic campaign in Syria, the largest and most significant Russian out-of-area operation since the end of the Cold War. Russia’s experience in Syria will significantly shape its military thinking, influence promotion and personnel decisions, impact research and development for its arms industry, and expand its influence in the Middle East and beyond for the foreseeable future.
Yet despite the importance of Russia’s involvement in Syria—especially as the United States competes with countries such as Russia and China—there has been little systematic analysis of Russia’s campaign in Syria. This research aims to help fill the gap and provides some new analysis and data. It conducts a broad assessment of the Russian campaign—including political objectives, diplomatic initiatives, and civilian targeting—which place the military campaign in a wider context. In addition, it compiles a data set of Russia’s civilian targeting and analyzes satellite imagery of Russian activity.
Some of the authors of the report also served in the U.S. Department of Defense and Central Intelligence Agency during portions of the campaign, and they provide an interesting first-hand perspective. Overall, this report concludes that Russia was successful in achieving its main near-term political and military objectives in Syria, including preventing the collapse of the Assad regime (an important regional partner) and thwarting a possible U.S. attempt to overthrow Assad. The main conclusions can be divided into five areas: Russian goals and strategy, the military campaign, the punishment campaign, the diplomatic campaign, and broader lessons.
This report examines Russia’s military and diplomatic campaign in Syria, the largest and most significant Russian out-of-area operation since the end of the Cold War. Russia’s experience in Syria will significantly shape its military thinking, influence promotion and personnel decisions, impact research and development for its arms industry, and expand its influence in the Middle East and beyond for the foreseeable future.
Yet despite the importance of Russia’s involvement in Syria—especially as the United States competes with countries such as Russia and China—there has been little systematic analysis of Russia’s campaign in Syria. This research aims to help fill the gap and provides some new analysis and data. It conducts a broad assessment of the Russian campaign—including political objectives, diplomatic initiatives, and civilian targeting—which place the military campaign in a wider context.
In addition, it compiles a data set of Russia’s civilian targeting and analyzes satellite imagery of Russian activity. Some of the authors of the report also served in the U.S. Department of Defense and Central Intelligence Agency during portions of the campaign, and they provide an interesting first-hand perspective.
Overall, this report concludes that Russia was successful in achieving its main near-term political and military objectives in Syria, including preventing the collapse of the Assad regime (an important regional partner) and thwarting a possible U.S. attempt to overthrow Assad.
The main conclusions can be divided into five areas: Russian goals and strategy, the military campaign, the punishment campaign, the diplomatic campaign, and broader lessons.