Οι Προβλέψεις του ΔΝΤ για την Ελληνική Οικονομία. GREECE: PRELIMINARY DRAFT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
Κατεβάστε ΕΔΩ! την τελευταία έκθεση του ΔΝΤ, της οποίας τα κυριότερα σημεία είναι ως εξής:
-By late summer 2014, with interest rates having declined further, it appeared that no further debt relief would have been needed under the November 2012 framework, if the program were to have been implemented as agreed.
-To ensure that debt is sustainable with high probability, Greek policies will need to come back on track but also, at a minimum, the maturities of existing European loans will need to be extended significantly while new European financing to meet financing needs over the coming years will need to be provided on similar concessional terms.
-But if the package of reforms under consideration is weakened further—in particular, through a further lowering of primary surplus targets and even weaker structural reforms—haircuts on debt will become necessary.
-At the time of the last review in May 2014 (the IMF’s Fifth Review under the extended arrangement), public debt dynamics were considered to be sustainable but highly vulnerable.
-If the program had been implemented as assumed, no further debt relief would have been needed under the agreed November 2012 framework.
-However, very significant changes in policies and in the outlook since early this year have resulted in a substantial increase in financing needs.
-Financing needs add up to over €50 billion over the three-year period from October 2015 to end–2018.
-It is unlikely that Greece will be able to close its financing gaps from the markets on terms consistent with debt sustainability.
-Even with concessional financing through 2018, debt would remain very high for decades and highly vulnerable to shocks.
-Given the extraordinarily concessional terms that now apply to the bulk of Greece’s debt, the debt/GDP ratio is not a very meaningful proxy for the forward-looking debt burden.
-If the program were implemented as specified at the last review, debt servicing would have been within the recommended threshold of 15 percent of GDP on average during 2016–45.